Price trend

After the domestic POM market rose in September, it remained stagnant, and spot prices often rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 15050 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.97% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region were weak and consolidated in September. The raw material methanol market first fell and then rose. Formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally, while downstream panel factories mainly maintained rigid demand. Production enterprises had high shipping pressure, and formaldehyde mainly fluctuated with raw material fluctuations, but the fluctuations were relatively small.

On the supply side:

In September, the maintenance and resumption of domestic POM devices were mutually reinforcing, and the overall operating rate decreased. At the beginning of the month, the industry load was close to 80%, but in the latter half of the month, it dropped to below 63%, and at the end of the month, it rebounded to 69%. In terms of supply, the inventory position within the month is still acceptable, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure. In the second half of the month, the impact of lower profit margins from the industry dragged down the profit space of the aggregated enterprise. The supply side’s support for POM spot goods is first strong and then loose.

In terms of demand:

Since September, the construction level of downstream POM enterprises in China has not been high. In the early days, there was still a tight supply of goods, but on the eve of the Double Festival, the company gradually completed its stocking. In addition, the buyer’s acceptance of the POM price has decreased after the increase, and the order volume has gradually contracted, resulting in a weakening of the on-site trading situation. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side has declined.

Future Market Forecast

After the POM market rose in September, it entered a consolidation market. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced, and the tight supply of goods on site has been maintained. Supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, terminal enterprises enter holiday arrangements after stocking up before holidays, resulting in a decline in operating rates. The purchasing operation has shifted from chasing prices to being cautious, and resistance towards high priced sources has gradually increased. At the end of the month, there was a lack of trading on the market, and the actual profit margin of traders increased. Overall, at the end of September, the supply side and demand side played a long short game, and it is expected that the POM market will continue to consolidate in early October.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 22, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% compared to the initial price of 21100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 17.27% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 26000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 1.30% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise, rising by 9.31% during the week. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and advanced, while the upstream raw material cost of R22 continued to rise. The remaining quota quantity of enterprises was generally low, and the domestic downstream demand was relatively stable. The market supply and demand entered a stalemate, and the overall domestic R22 market price remained stable and advanced this week.

Supported by the rebound in demand for foreign trade orders, the domestic R134a price continued to rise in September. With the stabilizing trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid prices, downstream trading entities in China are more cautious in demand, and the market supply and demand game shows that the overall domestic R134a price remained stable and advanced this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded from the bottom and remained stable overall. A slight increase in raw material costs will provide some support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, and manufacturers’ attitude towards price increases remains unchanged. In the short term, there is still some room for domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a prices to rise. Domestic traders have poor willingness to stock up, and downstream procurement is more cautious. The market supply and demand game is constantly intensifying, and the overall space for refrigerant prices to continue to rise is limited.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 21, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 14920 yuan/ton. Compared with September 16 (organic silicon DMC reference 14760 yuan/ton), the price increased by 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.15-9.21), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a slight upward trend. Since the beginning of September, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has continued to move upwards as a whole. As we enter this week, the overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market continues to climb slightly. At the beginning of the week, the organic silicon DMC of Shandong’s large factories remained stable at around 15000 yuan/ton. With the continuous increase in costs, the organic silicon DMC factories have strong confidence in the market, and some factories continue to narrow the increase in the price of organic silicon DMC, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As the weekend approaches, Shandong’s major factories have seen a slight decline in their quotations, while other factories and suppliers have remained stable in their quotations. The overall silicone DMC market is still operating at a high level. As of September 21st, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14800-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is still good, with some orders scheduled for delivery and some downstream orders starting to digest raw materials. The overall market demand is stabilizing, and the organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly be on a high level for consolidation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is in a weak state. From September 13th to 20th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16983 yuan/ton to 16933 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.89%. Recently, the market demand side has followed up relatively generally, with relatively limited price boosting power. Downstream demand is mainly focused on rigid demand, and traders remain in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year device in Dongcao Ruian has been completed and the device is operating normally. The current maintenance devices, including the 1.1 million ton/year device in Yantai Wanhua, will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 15th, with an estimated maintenance period of about 40 days. The overall supply has recovered. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, the raw materials of pure benzene, crude oil, and styrene are relatively strong, and the price of Eastern pure benzene is rapidly rising. However, there is still a resistance attitude towards purchasing high priced raw materials in the downstream; As of September 20th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 8717.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market price continues to be high, and the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. Cost support continues to strengthen, and some downstream companies are starting to stock up before holidays. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is active, and some factories have maintenance plans in October. The basic situation of aniline is good, supporting the continuous increase in prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 13700.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high costs as the support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.