According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 7th to 12th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9725 yuan/ton to 9637 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.09% during the cycle. The price decreased by 4.78% month on month and 4.01% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is experiencing weak fluctuations, with major production enterprises lowering their listing prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. Due to the weak industry mentality, the focus of market transactions has weakened.

Cost side, raw material pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market volatility consolidation. Sinopec has lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 150 yuan to implement a price of 7850 yuan/ton, and all refineries along the river and coast will implement this price uniformly. This price will be effective from October 11th. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. After the National Day holiday, the market price of caprolactam fell. During and after the holiday, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall price center fell compared to before the holiday. The caprolactam market fluctuated with costs, and downstream demand side confidence was weak. After the holiday, downstream enterprises chose to purchase at a lower price, and the spot price center of caprolactam fell compared to before the holiday. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material market may operate in a volatile manner, with unstable cost support, little change in the spot circulation of cyclohexanone, weak balance between market supply and demand, and near the profit and loss line. The cyclohexanone analyst from the Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

After returning from the Double Festival holiday, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has been weak and declining. On October 11th, the market price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was set at 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with before the holiday, the price of propylene glycol was reduced by 266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Propylene Glycol

In terms of demand: Downstream demand is light, with limited new orders and transactions

After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was light, with downstream cautious and demanding procurement. Some of the raw materials were mainly digested in the early stage, while the downstream industries such as unsaturated resin and elastic polyether showed weak wait-and-see. The purchasing atmosphere was limited, and new orders on the propylene glycol market were limited. The overall demand side lacked effective support, and some propylene glycol factories and suppliers made concessions to ship. The overall focus of the propylene glycol market declined.

On the supply side: loose supply and shipment pressure

Before the holiday, the atmosphere of the propylene glycol market has become clear, with cold downstream stock and factory inventory under pressure. Therefore, after the holiday, the overall supply of propylene glycol in the field is loose, and the supply side provides loose support for propylene glycol. After the holiday, the wait-and-see mentality of the propylene glycol market has increased.

In terms of raw materials: low carbon dioxide operation, stable and weak epoxy propane, poor cost support for propylene glycol

Prior to the holiday, the carbon dioxide market in the raw material end plummeted significantly, providing insufficient support for propylene glycol. After the holiday, the carbon dioxide market remained low, and the cost support for propylene glycol remained weak.

After the holiday, the overall market situation of epoxy propane showed weak performance, providing poor cost support for propylene glycol. Therefore, loose cost support will also increase the downward space for propylene glycol.

In terms of related products: The low negative price drop of dimethyl carbonate exacerbates the cost pressure on propylene glycol

After the Double Festival, the market for dimethyl carbonate co produced with propylene glycol also saw a slight decline, and both products fell into a downward trend, which also increased the cost pressure on the enterprise and narrowed the overall profit margin.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

In terms of supply, the overall enthusiasm for downstream stocking of propylene glycol before the holiday is average. Currently, the overall supply of propylene glycol in China is relatively sufficient.

In terms of equipment, it has been reported that some propylene glycol units in Shandong region are scheduled to undergo short-term maintenance for about half a month. In Shaanxi region, the units are expected to resume operation in the middle of the month, and it is expected that there will be little change in propylene glycol operating load in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, the stable and weak operation of epoxy propane market provides general cost support for propylene glycol, but due to the narrowing of profit margin, it is expected that the significant decline of propylene glycol market will be limited.

In terms of exports, export orders still provide some support to the market, driving the mentality of the industry.

Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, the propylene glycol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will experience limited market fluctuations, and the overall market may be weak and adjust its operation. Specifically, it is necessary to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of September 30, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7333 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1517 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.68%.

In the third quarter of 2023, the domestic butanone market as a whole experienced a fluctuating and upward trend. Starting from early July, the domestic butanone market continued to move upwards amidst the fluctuations. During September, with the support of the Jin Jiu effect and multiple positive factors, the center of gravity of the butanone market continued to move towards a high point. In late September, the market approached the highest point of the year. On September 20th, the domestic butanone market price was referenced at around 8850 yuan/ton, The high-end price is nearly 9000 yuan/ton, and compared to early July, the maximum price difference in the market is around 2000 yuan/ton.

Let’s take a specific look at the trend analysis and influencing factors of butanone market in the third quarter:

In July, with dual support from supply and cost, the butanone market “weakened first and then rose”. At the beginning of July, the overall supply of butanone market increased, while downstream demand was average. The overall market weakened slightly. In mid to late July, some butanone units underwent maintenance, and the supply side was tight. The raw material side market rose, supported by both cost and supply, and the butanone market started to rise, with a rise of 6.36% in July.

In August, with cost support, the butanone market experienced a “slight surge”. At the beginning of the month, the cost side continued to support the market, while butanone continued its upward trend at the end of July. In the mid stage, some units of butanone were restarted, resulting in an overall increase in supply. Downstream demand was generally boosted, and a supply and demand stalemate emerged, leading to a slight decline in the butanone market. At the end of the month, supported by the continuous rise of the cost side market, the butanone market stopped falling and rebounded, with a monthly increase of 1.48%.

In September, multiple positive factors combined with support led to a “broad rise” in the butanone market. With the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” plan, downstream demand for butanone has boosted, and supply and demand transmission has been smooth. On the eve of the Double Festival, the downstream market has had good stocking and replenishment, with low on-site inventory and tight supply. The mentality of on-site operators is good, and they are mainly enthusiastic about supporting the market. In addition, the crude oil market is rising, and the industrial chain also provides some support. The overall butanone market is surging upwards, with a September increase of 10.86%.

Forecast and Analysis of the Aftermarket of Butanone in the Fourth Quarter

In terms of supply and operating rate: As we enter the fourth quarter, for the domestic butanone market, the overall demand is still in a relatively high season, which brings certain benefits to the market from a macro perspective. In terms of supply, some butanone units have been repaired in the early stage, and it is expected that in the fourth quarter, there will be less maintenance of butanone equipment. In addition, it is heard that some new units may be put into operation, and the supply side may improve, Therefore, it is expected that the overall operating rate of butanone in the fourth quarter will be at a relatively high level.

Downstream demand: Although the fourth quarter is still a traditional peak season for the entire year, the overall demand is expected to be weaker than September. In September, with the significant increase in the market for butanone, some downstream enterprises have sufficient stock reserves. Therefore, entering October, downstream enterprises need some time to digest raw materials, and the sustainability of demand is limited. However, the macro benefits and support from the industrial chain are still acceptable, and the periodic stock replenishment in the downstream will also be stable. Therefore, it is expected that in the fourth quarter, although the momentum for the butanone market to surge is limited, the market situation will mostly fluctuate at high levels, Range adjustment operation is the main focus, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

The price of ortho xylene drops after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 8th, the price of ortho xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 5.43% compared to the 9200 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on October 1st. During the Double Festival period, crude oil prices significantly decreased, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and fell after the festival, and the cost of orthoxylene decreased; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride has declined, resulting in weak demand for ortho xylene and a decrease in costs. The price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and decreased after the holiday.

After the holiday, the market for raw materials mixed with xylene fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of October 8th, the price of mixed xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% compared to the price of mixed xylene of 8490 yuan/ton on October 1st. During the Double Festival period, crude oil prices significantly decreased, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and fell, and raw material costs decreased. After the festival, the downward pressure on adjacent xylene prices increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls after the holiday

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of October 8th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the price of 8712.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. During the Double Festival period, crude oil prices plummeted, the phthalic anhydride market operated cautiously, terminal demand remained cold, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor. After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that during the Double Festival, crude oil prices plummeted, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and fell after the festival, and the cost of raw materials for adjacent xylene decreased; After the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. In the future, both the upstream and downstream markets of the ortho benzene industry chain have declined, and the cost of ortho benzene has decreased. The demand for ortho benzene is weak, and it is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOTP skyrocketed after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of DOTP was 12241 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.43% compared to the price of DOTP on October 1st, which was 11610 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol surged, coupled with an increase in downstream customer restocking, resulting in a significant increase in DOTP prices.

The price of isooctanol has significantly increased after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 7th was 12360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to the price of isooctanol on October 1st, which was 12020 yuan/ton. During the holiday period, plasticizer manufacturers actively purchased, coupled with downstream restocking of isooctanol after the holiday, resulting in an increase in demand for isooctanol and a significant increase in the price of isooctanol after the holiday.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Double Festival period, downstream customers of isooctanol actively purchase, and after the festival, plasticizer enterprises replenish their inventory, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices; Crude oil prices plummeted, and PTA prices followed suit after the holiday. Overall, the price of raw materials for plasticizer DOTP has significantly increased, coupled with downstream customer restocking of plasticizers, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will rise significantly in the future.