1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.65%. Weekend prices increased by 14.88% year-on-year. On August 21, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.44, a decrease of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.70% from the highest point of 105.58 points in the cycle (2021-09-16), and an increase of 34.26% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased this week, resulting in low inventory..

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6788.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6813.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.37%. Weekend prices fell by 3.09% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.03%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late August may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week (8.11-8.19), the market for dichloromethane increased significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2732 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% from last Friday’s 2642 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to rise slightly, while the cost center of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded; Recently, a certain export order was received from a certain company in Shandong province. In the early stage, the port was around 1000 tons, and the regional supply of goods was tight. In addition, due to the short shutdown of the Fuqiang device, the price of dichloromethane has increased. As of August 19, the factory price of the mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong province was around 2700-2800 yuan/ton.

This week (8.11-8.19), the Fuqiang unit was shut down for a short period of time, and the domestic methane chloride production fluctuated slightly.

This week (8.11-8.19), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine significantly increased, and the cost center of dichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% from last Friday’s 2380 yuan/ton. As of August 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province has significantly increased from 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with costs supporting dichloromethane.

The inventory of enterprises in Shandong region remains low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight, which forms support for the price of dichloromethane; Currently in the off-season of air conditioning, the market is weak under the pressure of R32 destocking, and the operation of the device remains low, with only weak support for dichloromethane. However, the downstream pharmaceutical industry has increased demand, and industries such as lithium battery separators are operating steadily, providing some support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the supply side of dichloromethane in the region is tight, and there is currently some support in the demand side. In addition, the cost side will continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be strong at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price on August 17th was 3816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.51% compared to the previous working day of 3583.33 yuan/ton. The domestic acetic acid market continues to be strong and upward, with manufacturers raising their prices by 200 yuan/ton. Some domestic acetic acid plants have been shut down to maintain their initial load, with manufacturers having low inventory and long contracts. The supply of goods in the market is tight, and some holders are reluctant to sell, pushing up prices. At the same time, the bidding prices of major manufacturers in the northwest continue to rise, while other regions have followed suit. The trend of acetic acid prices has significantly increased.

At present, there is strong support from the positive supply side, and the market has a clear intention to support prices. At the same time, the sentiment of buying up or not buying down is also affected, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be strong.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 15th, the average spot market price of nickel was 167450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%.

Recently, nickel prices have fluctuated widely due to the Indonesian government’s anti-corruption investigation by the Ministry of Energy and Mines, which has led to slow approval of new production quotas for various nickel mines. In addition, some mines are unable to continue shipping due to the depletion of production quotas, causing a tense supply atmosphere in the nickel ore market. After the news was released, nickel prices have slightly increased. However, for nickel prices, although some of the raw materials in the newly added pure nickel projects come from high nickel matte produced by pyrometallurgy, some still come from MHP produced by hydrometallurgy. Therefore, the impact of this news on nickel prices is relatively small. Moreover, under the consensus expectation of a medium-term excess supply of pure nickel in the market, nickel prices have fallen again after rising. On the macro level, the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve is uncertain, and the market is looking forward to more data guidance. Domestic social finance data is significantly lower than expected, and the real estate market sentiment is declining. Macro bearish sentiment suppresses the upward trend. It is expected that under the fundamentals of oversupply, nickel prices will remain low and fluctuate widely.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 14th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8121.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09% compared to August 7th at 8114.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton.

As of August 14th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7904.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to August 7th at 7946.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

On August 14th, the naphtha commodity index was 100.23, a decrease of 0.25 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.29% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the market for refined naphtha fluctuated, but this week, the terminal market showed significant positive results. Refineries were actively shipping, merchants were cautious in chasing higher prices, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with transactions mainly focused on demand.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Due to concerns about market supply and continued fermentation, coupled with the positive phase of the peak oil consumption season, OPEC+, an oil producing country, has continued to reduce production by an additional scale, and the decline in finished oil storage in the United States has exceeded expectations.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has increased this week. On August 14th, the price of toluene was 8100 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 8030 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. This week, the price of mixed xylene has increased. On August 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 8630 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49%. The price trend of PX has increased this week, with a price increase of 1.11% from 9100 yuan/ton on August 14th to 8800 yuan/ton on August 7th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market volatility of local refined naphtha is the main trend, with refineries actively shipping and merchants being cautious in chasing high prices. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions are mainly in demand. In addition, there is no significant positive trend in the terminal reforming of ethylene, and it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.