According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of November 13 was 6760.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 0.45% higher than the price of 6730.00 yuan/ton on November 7.

On November 13, the fuel oil commodity index was 136.91, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle and 197.11% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of November 13, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6700 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6800 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6800 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6900 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell in shock. OPEC will start to reduce production in November. At that time, the crude oil production will decline, strongly supporting the oil price. EIA data shows that the US crude oil export volume has reached a record high, and the US total crude oil inventory has fallen to a nearly 21 year low, promoting the rise of crude oil prices. However, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. The oil demand expectation in Asia is still uncertain. With the mid-term elections in the United States looming, the market’s worries about demand have depressed oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): as of November 9, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory had increased by 2.522 million barrels to a five week high of 21.471 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell by 1.132 million barrels to 13.518 million barrels, a more than six month low; Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased 465000 barrels to a four week high of 7.274 million barrels.

Future market forecast: The international crude oil price has fallen, which is bad for the domestic ship fuel market. But at present, the supply in the South is tight, the ship fuel price is high and firm, the market wait-and-see mood has increased, the deal is just in demand, and the ship fuel market is stable in the near future. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6800-6900 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the average price of LNG in Inner Mongolia was 4806 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from the average price of 4950 yuan/ton on November 7.

2、 Market analysis

The weak domestic LNG market continued this week, and the price continued to decline. At present, the market demand is weak and the trading and investment are flat. The price fell sharply in the air, which was bad for the domestic gas market. Although the heating season is coming, the temperature is relatively high in recent days, and the demand has not improved. The liquid plant has discharged more inventory and reduced the price. After successive price reductions, the market in some regions rebounded slightly. Due to the control of the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia, the shipment is not smooth, and the market continues to decline.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 11:

Region./Quote

Inner Mongolia/. 4650-5000 yuan/ton

Shaanxi/. 4900-5200 yuan/ton

Shanxi/. 5050-5200 yuan/ton

Ningxia/. 5100-5200 yuan/ton

Hebei/. 5300-5450 yuan/ton

Henan/. 5450-5600 yuan/ton

Sichuan/. 5150-5400 yuan/ton

Shandong/. 5700-5800 yuan/ton

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that due to the sluggish terminal demand in recent days, the market for LNG continues to run weak due to oversupply on the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 9): 2519 yuan/ton

On November 9, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from that on November 8, with a year-on-year drop of 6.22%. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) is about 1630 yuan/ton, the price drops slightly, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150,000 tons.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2530 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 8, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7500 yuan/ton, which was 366 yuan/ton lower than the reference average price of n-butanol on November 4 before the festival (7866 yuan/ton), a decline of 4.66%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a broad rise under the support of both supply and demand. As of last weekend (November 4), the n-butanol market rose to a high level, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton. On the following 5 and 6 days, the overall market was consolidated at a high level. In this week, the n-butanol market in Shandong started to fall back at a high level, with a cumulative decline of more than 4% over the past two days. As of November 8, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China has been around 7400-7600 yuan/ton, and the price has decreased by 300-500 yuan/ton this week.

The main influencing factor of the high and down trend of the n-butanol market comes from the demand. In this week, the downstream of n-butanol mainly consumes the raw materials in the early inventory, and the overall market demand returns to a stable level. Therefore, compared with the beginning of the month, the demand for n-butanol is less supportive. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the deals are mostly small.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inventory of n-butanol in the plant is relatively controllable, the supply side has relatively stable support for the n-butanol market, and the raw propylene market rebounds at a low level, which also supports the cost side. The fluctuation of the n-butanol market is also a normal fall after the demand side returns to calm. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst of the business community believes that, in the short term, it is expected that, under the condition that the market is still supported in terms of supply and cost, The risk of the n-butanol market continuing to decline significantly is small, and the market will tend to stabilize and consolidate. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on the 7th, with the spot price of 66433.33 yuan/ton, 2.81% higher than the previous trading day and 5.55% lower than the same period last year.

The US unemployment rate recorded 3.7% in October, higher than the expected 3.6%. The rising expectation of the US economic recession restricted the space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, led the US dollar index to fall sharply, and copper prices rebounded sharply after a long period of pressure. Supply side disturbances frequently superimpose geopolitical risks, and the new copper mine output since 2022 is lower than expected. The global exchange copper inventory continued to decline. The domestic refined copper inventory was at a historical low level, and it was difficult to see obvious accumulation in a short time. The supply and demand of refined copper was in a tight state. However, domestic downstream consumption is weak, and Russian copper may turn to our country under the rising voice of European ban on imports, and the supply and demand may be slowing down. In the short term, supported by low inventories, copper prices are expected to rise mainly due to shocks.