According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cost is bearish and the market price of polyester filament has fallen sharply. On April 11th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6400-6700 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7700-8200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6700-6900 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, entering April, international crude oil experienced a “cliff like” decline, with WTI crude oil falling below $60 per barrel, hitting a four-year low. PTA and MEG are downstream products of crude oil, and their prices are highly correlated with crude oil. From January to March 2025, the correlation coefficient between PTA and MEG prices rose to 0.65, and the decline in crude oil led to a compression of PTA processing fees to 296 yuan/ton, while MEG’s coal based profit loss expanded to 239 yuan/ton. The sharp decline in crude oil prices has raised concerns in the market about a global economic recession, and expectations for textile export demand have weakened. The US Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2025, coupled with the Federal Reserve maintaining a high interest rate policy, further curbing end consumption.
In terms of demand, since April, the operating rate of polyester filament has remained at a high level of 95.5%, with sufficient capacity released. But top companies are trying to alleviate inventory pressure by reducing production to maintain prices (such as the 1.6 million ton plant renovation and parking in Xiaoshan area) and adjusting pricing models (such as the fixed price policy). The downstream textile industry shows the characteristic of “not thriving during peak season”. The operating rate of weaving machines in April was 62.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the available days of raw material inventory in enterprises decreased to 12.65 days, indicating a low purchasing willingness. In terms of exports, the United States imposed tariffs, which led to the rise of China’s textile export costs and the transfer of some orders to Southeast Asia, but the growth of demand in the “the Belt and Road” market (such as India and Vietnam) formed a hedge.
Overall, the polyester filament market is under triple pressure of declining costs, weak demand, and high inventory levels, resulting in stable but weak prices. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and enterprise differentiation strategies. In the short term, there is limited room for price rebound, and Business Society believes that the polyester filament market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8008 yuan/ton on April 4th and 7788 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 2.75% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9633 yuan/ton on April 4th and 9333 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 3.11% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8337 yuan/ton on April 4th and 8260 yuan/ton on April 10th, a decrease of 0.93% during this period.
Recently, the price of polyethylene has been continuously declining. Crude oil prices are falling, and macroeconomic factors are weak, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. The supply side is abundant, and the peak season for plastic film demand is coming to an end. The demand for greenhouse film in spring is light, and the overall downstream demand is limited. The on-site mentality is cautious and bearish, and manufacturers and traders mainly offer discounts for shipments, resulting in a continuous decline in quotes. Negative factors are suppressing, and it is expected that polyethylene will be mainly weak.

Market Overview
This week (4.1-4.9), the dichloromethane market in Shandong showed a weak supply-demand pattern, with a slight shift in price focus. After the Qingming Festival, the downstream demand for temporary replenishment of inventory weakened, coupled with insufficient support from the cost side, and manufacturers’ inventory pressure led to slight discounts on shipments.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 9th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.89% from before the holiday.
analysis of influencing factors
1. Supply side: Limited support for local maintenance, inventory pressure still exists
Device dynamics: Some methane chloride units in Shandong are undergoing maintenance and load reduction, and the overall operating rate of the industry has slightly decreased to around 75%, but the supply is still relatively sufficient.
Enterprise inventory: After the holiday, the pace of downstream procurement slowed down, and major manufacturers accumulated inventory. Some enterprises promoted destocking by reducing prices slightly.
2. Cost side: Weakening of raw material methanol and limited hedging against rising liquid chlorine prices
Methanol: Affected by macroeconomic sentiment and weak demand, methanol prices have significantly declined. As of April 9th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was reported at 2487.50 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.59%, weakening the cost support of dichloromethane.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has recently increased, but its overall cost impact on dichloromethane is limited.
3. Demand side: Obvious off-season characteristics, weak impact on exports
Refrigerant industry: Dichloromethane, as a raw material for R32, is currently in the off-season of air conditioning production with stable demand. It is expected that the peak season of May June will approach or drive demand to recover.
Other fields: Pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediate enterprises purchase on demand, and solvent demand (coatings, adhesives, etc.) continues to be weak.
Export: The United States has implemented a 34% tariff policy on China, but the proportion of dichloromethane exports from China to the United States is only 0.62% (2024 data), with little short-term impact.
Future prospects
According to the analysis of Business Society, the current dichloromethane market is facing the following mixed factors of long and short positions:
Negative: Insufficient cost support for methanol, difficult to see short-term increase in downstream demand, and enterprise inventory pressure still needs to be digested.
Lido: The industry’s operating rate has been reduced, and with the approaching peak season for refrigerants, the expectation of marginal improvement in demand has increased.
Comprehensive prediction: In the short term, the price of dichloromethane may continue to fluctuate weakly, and in the later stage, it is necessary to focus on the trend of methanol on the cost side, the progress of enterprise inventory depletion, and the signal of peak season stocking. If downstream demand rebounds as scheduled after May, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound.

After the Qingming Festival in April, the market price of epichlorohydrin remained stable. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 8th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5% compared to early April.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market for raw material propylene glycerol is mainly fluctuating and consolidating. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6823.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Glycerol based epichlorohydrin enterprises are experiencing losses, reduced production enthusiasm, and tight market supply.
Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market supply remains normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. But the terminal demand is weak, trading is not smooth, and the main focus is on purchasing for essential needs. Overall, the demand for epichlorohydrin has weakened, with weak upward momentum and mainly stable operation.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that downstream market demand is weak, traders’ purchasing mentality is not positive, and market trading is not smooth. It is predicted that the epoxy chloropropane market will experience weak growth in the later stage or continue to operate steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

Market summary: New production capacity has not been released yet, some existing facilities are undergoing maintenance or load reduction, and the market is expected to improve in this stage. Spot market offers continue to rise. As of April 3rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8950-9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
In terms of supply, factories in the East China region have reduced their load or planned maintenance, while new production capacity has not been released in the short term (trial operation stage), resulting in a partial reduction in supply and continuing to provide conditions for market growth. But the overall supply in the north is still relatively abundant, and the market is following the trend of slow growth. According to statistics, as of April 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was 80.13%, a decrease of 2.56% compared to last week.
Inventory decline: After the previous low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory has slightly decreased. According to statistics, as of April 3, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 48000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week.
General demand: The ABS production capacity utilization rate of the downstream major industry of acrylonitrile is 68.6%, a decrease of 4.2% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand. On the other hand, in terms of downstream acrylic fiber, the weekly production rate is around 70%. Although the production rate has reached a high point this year, the issuance of new orders is limited. In addition, due to macroeconomic factors, foreign trade orders are unstable, resulting in relatively average overall demand.
Market forecast: The domestic acrylonitrile market price has slightly adjusted, and the positive support brought by local supply reduction is gradually being digested. At the same time, there is still an expectation of new production capacity being put into operation, and downstream demand remains overall. The market may continue to have insufficient upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material propylene prices in the near future.