1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose sharply after the Spring Festival (2.11-2.26). As of February 26, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7931 yuan / ton, 16.67% higher than the price of 6798 before the Spring Festival, and 14.43% higher than the same period last year. The quotation of all manufacturers has been greatly increased by 1000-1200 yuan / ton. In the futures market, on February 26, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed at 8362, up 1218 or 17.05% from 7144 before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the international oil price fluctuated and soared, which led to the sharp rise of PTA and glycol prices. The cost rose sharply, the device was shut down for maintenance, the downstream goods were prepared after the festival, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant rise. However, due to the lack of full operation after the festival, although the production and sales continued to increase, most of them were engaged in arbitrage. The downstream factories were well stocked, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high prices was not high. There might be short-term adjustment demand for polyester staple fiber.

2、 Factors affecting price

1. PTA: after the Spring Festival, the domestic PTA spot market showed a sharp rise. On February 26, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 4730 yuan / ton, up 17.30% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 7.96% year on year. During the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased, the agency raised the oil price expectation, and the crude oil rebounded strongly, reaching a new high in nearly 13 months, which strengthened the support for PTA cost. Downstream polyester and weaving enterprises have resumed production, and the demand recovery is optimistic. We need to pay attention to the situation of OPEC + meeting in the later stage, and it is expected that the short-term PTA price oscillation is relatively strong.

2. Ethylene glycol: after the Spring Festival, the domestic ethylene glycol futures and spot markets rose sharply. On February 26, the average ex factory price of oil made ethylene glycol in North China was 6050 yuan / ton, up 25.61% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 34.44% compared with that before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the United States was affected by extreme weather, and many units stopped unexpectedly, resulting in a tight supply side. International oil prices and glycol prices continued to rise sharply. After the festival, the downstream demand situation in the domestic market is also relatively optimistic, the spot price of ethylene glycol soars, the profit of coal based ethylene glycol is prominent, and the production load of manufacturers is increased. At present, the market sentiment is positive and still bullish in the short term.

3. Polyester yarn: after the Spring Festival, a number of pure polyester yarn enterprises raised their prices. This weekend, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14933 yuan / ton, up 5.41% and 2.81% compared with that before the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang runfengda textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Guanjie textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Honghua textile increased slightly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 14800 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival The price of Nantong Suzhong textile increased by 300 yuan / ton in February, and the price of 32S pure polyester yarn reached 15000 yuan / ton by the 25th, which was 1200 yuan / ton higher than that in January; the price of Gaoyi Delida textile increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business community analysts believe that since the Spring Festival in 2021, crude oil and PTA have continued to rise, which obviously supports the cost of polyester staple fiber. However, the short-term rise has increased the risk of market adjustment. Downstream weaving enterprises are cautious in placing orders, with more inquiries, and orders have not improved significantly. In the future, short-term crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC + meeting on March 4, PTA needs to pay attention to the maintenance and commissioning of new units. Short term polyester staple may be slightly adjusted. Caution is recommended.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 25, the average ex factory price of acetic acid in East China was 6066.67 yuan / ton, up 22.97% in February. Judging from the price trend in February, the price of acetic acid increased slightly a year ago, and the range of increase was always around 50-70 yuan / ton. After the holidays, acetic acid went up in a wide range, with a maximum increase of 500 yuan / ton in a single day and an increase of 18.18% after the festival, and the price exceeded 6000 yuan / ton. As of February 25, the market price of acetic acid in China is as follows:

Region ﹣ date ﹣ quotation

In Shandong Province, February 25, 2005, RMB 5950-6050 / T

Jiangsu Province February 25 – 6150-6300 yuan / ton

In Zhejiang Province, the price of RMB 6250-6300 per ton on February 25, 2005

Hebei Province, February 25, 2005: RMB 5850-5900 / T

In Northwest China, the price of RMB 5500 / T on February 25th

In South China on February 25, 2005, RMB 6500-6600 / T

In North China, RMB 5800-5850 / T on February 25, 2008

The domestic acetic acid market continued to rise, the downstream active replenishment after the festival, the market demand increased, the domestic enterprises Hualu Hengsheng, Henan Yima, Anhui Huayi and other devices shut down, resulting in the shortage of spot supply in the market. In addition, the North American large factories shut down, the export demand of enterprises in East China increased, the overall inventory of acetic acid market was low, and the supply side gap was difficult to make up in a short time.

After the festival, the domestic methanol market rose slightly, and the downstream replenishment was appropriate. In addition, the logistics gradually recovered, the market recovered, and the price trend continued to rise. At present, the price in Shandong is about 2277.50 yuan / ton. At present, the low export intention of the on-site shippers is not high, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, the methanol market is mainly in consolidation operation, and the support for acetic acid is weak.

The price of acetic anhydride rose significantly, and continued to rise after the festival. As of the 25th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 9300 yuan / ton, up 10.71% after the festival. It mainly comes from upstream driving, upstream parking, tight supply, rising cost of raw materials, acetic anhydride rising momentum, price rising.

In terms of acetate, the domestic price of ethyl acetate rose sharply after the festival. As of the 25th, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9075 yuan / ton, up 16.16% after the festival. The upstream acetic acid market continued to rise, the spot supply of raw material n-butanol market was tight, the industry was bullish, both sides were good, and the market trend of ethyl acetate kept up with the rise. At present, Dongying Yisheng plant of butyl acetate industry is shut down, Taixing Jinjiang is closed and its quotation is suspended, the overall market is on the low side, the supply of goods is tight, and the raw material market continues to be good, so the market of ethyl acetate is strong and upward. Overall, the supply of acetic acid market is tight and the price is rising, which has led to the continuous rise of the downstream acetate Market.

Acetic acid analysts of business news agency believe that from the comparison of the price trends of the upstream and downstream of the acetic acid industry chain, the price trends of various products are almost synchronous after the year, and the increase is mainly wide. Based on the analysis of the supply and demand performance of acetic acid and industrial chain products, the upstream methanol has weak support for acetic acid, and the main reason for the rise of acetic acid is the tight supply. However, it is difficult to recover the market supply in a short time, and the demand for acetic acid is low The supply of downstream acid products was tight, and the downstream demand gradually recovered after the festival, so the supply of acetate products was in short supply. At present, after the continuous rise of acetic acid market, the market tends to be stable gradually. In the future market, we still need to pay attention to the start-up situation of acetic acid plants. In the short term, the acetic acid market is strong or slightly rising.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 24, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7166.67 yuan / ton, with strong support from the cost side. The price of PET bottle chip market increased for several consecutive days. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 22.86%, compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 17.49%, with an increase of more than 1000 yuan / ton. Under the influence of the high level operation of upstream raw materials, the focus of PET bottle chip negotiations continued Rise, low inventory, goods tight state is obvious.

Recently, due to the soaring prices of raw materials, the pet market is surging, and the atmosphere of catching up is positive. However, the downstream demand is limited, and the actual demand has not increased significantly. The factory has a strong willingness to support the price, and the cost support is strong. The downstream operating rate gradually rises, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The market in East China maintains a high level operation. The reference price is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and the focus of the discussion is large and small The price in South China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton, and that in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, a bullish attitude and high raw materials. Driven by the cost, pet is passively pushed up.

The rise and fall of pet industry chain: the upstream raw materials of ethylene glycol and PTA all rose sharply, the support of pet cost side was strong, the spot price of ethylene glycol soared, and the profits of domestic coal based ethylene glycol were prominent under the trend of continuous strengthening of international oil price, and more manufacturers increased the load of ethylene glycol. According to market participants, at present, the profit of ethylene glycol is 700 yuan / ton higher than that of ethylene oxide. In addition, the port decommissioning is still continuing, the market sentiment is positive, and it is still bullish in the short term. In the past three months, the domestic PTA market has maintained a volatile upward trend. As of February 23, the average price of the spot market was 4463 yuan / ton, up 35.1%, down 0.47% year on year From March to April, the domestic PTA plant maintenance capacity is close to 9 million tons, and it is expected that the short-term PTA price oscillation is relatively strong.

On February 23, the pet industry chain index was 59.57, up 2.39 points from yesterday, down 39.76% from 98.88 points (2012-02-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 38.63% from 42.97 points, the lowest point on November 10, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business Analyst PET said: as the PET raw material market keeps running high, PET is catching up with the atmosphere positively, and with the strong cost support, the PET market will keep running at a high price in the short term. Official account of the latest trend of pet industry chain will not be ruled out. Log in to the small program of business club, release commodity prices, promote products, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Recently, the international crude oil market continues to soar, the price of domestic oil products has been adjusted for seven consecutive years, the actual demand for domestic oil products during the Spring Festival holiday is far better than expected, the demand for terminal replenishment is strong, and the price of domestic oil products is rising. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of gasoline on February 23 was 6642 yuan / ton, up 8.57% compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of diesel on February 23 was 5398 yuan / ton, up 11.02% compared with that before the Spring Festival.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market continued to hit a high point in the year. As of press release, WTI oil price was at 62.5 US dollars / barrel. According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil.

In terms of gasoline demand, the local new year was originally advocated, and the expectation of gasoline terminal demand was not good. However, the domestic epidemic control effect was very good, and the consumption situation in the terminal market was far better than expected. In addition, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the “seven consecutive rises” of refined oil price adjustment was implemented. The market was bullish, and the demand for terminal replenishment increased. In terms of diesel oil, after the Spring Festival, various places started construction one after another, and the demand for diesel oil in engineering, infrastructure, transportation and other industries continued to rise. Coupled with the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the demand for replenishment and hoarding of terminal units increased, and the market demand improved. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices and the increase in terminal demand jointly pushed up domestic oil product prices.

Before the Spring Festival, Shandong local refining enterprises began to reduce their production load. As of February 22, the average starting load of daily pressure relief devices decreased from 73% before the festival to about 70%. The starting load of refineries declined, and the supply of domestic refined oil market decreased slightly, which played a role in boosting the price of refined oil.

Lu Xingjun, refined oil analyst of business association, believes that after the sharp rise of international crude oil prices, or maintain a high operating state, the bullish enthusiasm of domestic refined oil market may decline. At the same time, the operating rate of refineries will gradually pick up after the festival, and the tense situation of market supply and demand will be eased. It is expected that the rising trend of refined oil prices will slow down in the near future.

After the festival, the domestic cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber market rose sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 12170.00 yuan / ton, up 8.08% compared with that before the festival; the market price of styrene butadiene rubber was 13650.00 yuan / ton, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival.

In just four working days after the festival, the ex factory prices of cis-1,4-butanol and butylbenzene were increased by about 1000 yuan. According to the business news agency, as of February 22, the ex factory price of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company has increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, Jihua 1502 offers 13700 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raises the price; Fushun 1502 offers 13700 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raises the price. The price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12400 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the cost of cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 22, the price of butadiene was 6747 yuan / ton, which was 7.42% higher than 6281 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. As of February 22, the domestic price of styrene was 9300 yuan / ton. Compared with 7183 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival, it was up 29.47%.

After the festival, the price of natural rubber continued to rise. Due to the substitution of natural rubber with cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene in tire application, natural rubber, cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene had a certain degree of interaction in price. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 22, the price of natural rubber was 14675 yuan / ton, 4.63% higher than 14025 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Driving the bullish atmosphere of Shunding and butylbenzene.

Future forecast: the rising price of raw materials and the high price of natural rubber form a strong support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene rubber. However, the price rises too fast in the near future. In addition, it will take some time for the enterprises in the later stage of the next festival to fully recover. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene rubber will be stable in the short term, and there is still room for rise in the medium and long term.