1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal ushered in a turning point from June 9. On June 17, the average port price of power coal was maintained at 570 yuan / ton, 2.75% higher than the average power coal price of 554.75 yuan / ton on June 1, and 3.54% higher than the average power coal price of 550.5 yuan / ton on June 9. Recently, the price of power coal has risen slightly, and the power coal market continues to be hot.

Before that, the price of power coal went up in May after a round of decline due to the “public health event” in March and April. After May 1st, the highway resumed charging, the downstream users of coal mostly purchased on demand, the mine mouth market delivery was poor, and the price was under pressure. The market demand of the downstream power plant has picked up slightly, driving the price of power coal up slightly. From the end of May to the first ten days of June, the price of power coal fell. Because of the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of the Daqin line, the level of port transfer in around the Bohai Sea gradually picked up. At the beginning of the month, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the quotation of traders was stable, and the transaction was fair. With the arrival of the rainy season in the south in the later period, the power of hydropower has been gradually opened, the power of thermal power has been partially squeezed, the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants is limited, and the inventory of coastal power plants has declined.

On June 17, the power coal commodity index was 68.67, up 0.48 points from yesterday, down 33.34% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 53.62% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the supply is tight. After the completion of the “two sessions”, the safety inspection was intensified, some coal mines in some areas were shut down and production was limited, the coal price in the production area increased significantly, and the overall production enthusiasm of coal mines was low. At present, dozens of large-scale coal mines in Shaanxi have been shut down for rectification. Ordos continues to strictly control the coal management ticket. Yulin area has carried out a month long safety inspection. The resumption of production of coal mines in the main production area is not as expected. The overall domestic supply is affected. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 15, China’s raw coal production in May was 318 million tons, down 0.1% year-on-year, and up 6% year-on-year in April.

In terms of downstream power plants, the demand is gradually picking up. The rainfall in the South increased and the hydropower generation capacity decreased due to flood discharge. At present, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants is about 670000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants is 15.4779 million tons, down 1.8 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available days are about 22 days. Daily consumption is expected to continue to rise as the peak season of electricity consumption gradually arrives. In terms of electricity, the demand growth in May was significant. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the country’s absolute generating capacity was 593.2 billion kwh, an increase of 4.3% year on year, 4 percentage points higher than that in April.

In terms of imports, quotas are tight. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China imported 22.057 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%; from January to may, China imported 148.711 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. At present, the state of import tightening is still maintained, and only a small number of bidding for power plants have been completed. In recent years, China has implemented the policy of level control of imported coal, aiming to control the total amount of imported coal within 300 million tons. Now, the total amount of imported coal has reached 150 million tons from January to may, and the quota of imported coal in the second half of the year is relatively tight.

According to the analysts of the business club, firstly, the coal supply of the production area is tight in the near future, and it is still in the state of vehicle and other coal; secondly, the demand of the downstream power plant is gradually picking up with the weather getting hotter and hotter, and the pace of the downstream enterprises returning to work and production is speeding up, the infrastructure construction projects are accelerating, the demand of coal consumption industries such as cement and building materials will gradually pick up, and the peak time of summer will come Before that, the power plant still had the demand for replenishment of storage; in terms of re import, the quota was still tight, the price of Indonesian coal fell to the low point since the outbreak, and the price of imported coal continued to weaken. Some coal types in the port are in short supply, and traders are willing to hold up the price. In a comprehensive view, the power coal still has a small increase basis, specifically the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda this week is mainly stable. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week to the weekend is about 502.5 yuan / ton. The price remains stable, down 29.47% from the same period last year. On June 15, the caustic soda commodity index was 72.30, the same as yesterday, 65.05% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.91% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: 420-550 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1400-1550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market (converted into 100 yuan), 710-740 yuan / ton in Guangdong market. In terms of flake alkali, the factory price of flake alkali was stable at the beginning of the week. Supported by the good maintenance of some manufacturers, the quotation of flake alkali market maintained stable operation. Quotation of flake alkali: 1900-1950 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2180-2200 yuan / ton in East China market, 1600-1700 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market.

Raw materials: affected by the low price increase of sea salt and lake salt, the delivery of well salt is not good, and some well salt enterprises have maintained or limited production since the end of May. In June, the maintenance of some two soda enterprises was completed, and the purchase of industrial salt by downstream soda enterprises may increase. However, due to the impact of high inventory, the supply and demand of raw salt and soda are still in a state of contradiction, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Demand: at present, about 76% of domestic alumina is under construction, and the downstream of papermaking, printing and dyeing, etc. needs to maintain rigid procurement. Caustic soda plant maintenance good and spot not much to continue to support the market. On the macro level, tank car accidents or domestic hazardous chemicals production, transportation and other aspects were strictly inspected, and small, medium and micro downstream enterprises started or were affected. Supply and demand have not changed much for the time being.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 23rd week of 2020 (6.8-6.12), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.49%) and light soda ash (- 1.32%). This week’s average was – 0.56%.

According to the analysts of business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is stable. Alumina, papermaking and printing mostly purchase caustic soda on demand. Due to the price of liquid caustic soda stuck in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market is still weak and stable, and the overall adjustment is limited.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1433 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1450 yuan / ton, up 1.16%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid was basically stable, with a slight increase in some parts. The quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1250-1300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1580 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the quotation of Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1300-1350 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than last week; the quotation of Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1700 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; the demand for nitric acid was flat compared with last week Light, partial trading is OK.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream liquid ammonia fell 5.95% this week, limiting the space for nitric acid price to rise; the downstream aniline, according to the data of the business agency’s bulk list, slightly increased the price of aniline on Wednesday. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4820 yuan / ton; on June 12, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4500-4590 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4590 yuan / ton The price of aniline is 4600-4820 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton or 2.26% compared with last week, boosting the price of nitric acid; the price of downstream TDI is temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid analysts predict that the price rise of nitric acid will be blocked due to the drag of raw material liquid ammonia.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market rebounded after a continuous decline. As of June 12, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2223 yuan / ton, 2.62% higher than the average price of 2166 yuan / ton on June 9, and 13.15% lower than the same period last month. At present, there are 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2000 yuan / ton in Henan, 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Hebei and 1900 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Production trends of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Normal production of Yankuang Guotai 110

Hualu Hengsheng 50 normal production

Yangzi BP 506.6 equipment maintenance about 10

About 70% of Celanese 120

Jiangsu Thorpe 120 normal production

Hebei Jiantao 50 normal production

Tianjin Bohua 35 normal production

Henan Shunda 40 normal production

Henan Longyu 50 6.11 maintenance for about one week

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi extended maintenance for more than one month from May 6, 2015

Shanghai Huayi 70.5.23 parking and maintenance for about 20 days

About 80% of Anhui Huayi construction started

Dalian Hengli 35 normal production

The main reason for the price increase of acetic acid is the decrease of spot supply caused by the overhaul of the enterprise. Last weekend, Nanjing Yangzi BP plant was overhauled, and the spot supply in East China fell to a certain extent. The enterprises had more inventory and shipped out, and the market demand turned to the surrounding areas. The overall market operating rate was about 70%. The enterprise inventory pressure was effectively relieved. Some low-priced enterprises rose randomly and tentatively. Downstream and traders did not buy up or down. The trading atmosphere in the industry was good and the buying was positive. Affected by the poor start-up of foreign terminals, the acetic acid export end is expected to decline, and the price is weak. At present, the Asian market is about 265-320 US dollars / ton, the European market is about 550 euros / ton, and the North American market is about 445 US dollars / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated upward. Some manufacturers in Northwest China are optimistic about it. The freight is high, and the cost of traders is increasing. In addition, the center of gravity of the downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is rising. Multiple advantages lead to the rebound of methanol market, and the cost is well supported by the price of acetic acid.

On the other hand, the downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate are driven by the upward trend of the raw material acetic acid market, but the overall construction is flat, the actual demand for acetic acid is limited, the terminal market just needs to be weak and stable, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the situation that the supply exceeds the demand is difficult to change.

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, in the near future, Huayi in Shanghai, Yanchang in Shaanxi and BP in Yangzi will resume production one after another, and the long-term supply of the market is expected to be greatly improved; the downstream market is still just short of demand, which will focus on digesting contracts in a short time, and the volume of new single transactions will be greatly reduced. There is limited space for the price of acetic acid to rise before the complete recovery of acetic acid production enterprises.

Methanol market in China rebounded. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 9, the market price of methanol in China was 1650 yuan / ton, down 4.49% month on month and 24.45% year on year.

The main reasons for this rebound are as follows: some manufacturers in Northwest China are optimistic and firm; freight is high, the cost of traders is increased; the center of receiving goods of downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is higher. The price of methanol in Northwest China rose partially, the market atmosphere was good, the main stream of Guanzhong rose to 1390-1500 yuan / ton, the price of goods received in Shandong and other provinces rose with the boost of futures, the downstream and traders entered the market actively to replenish goods, the trading atmosphere was active, and the main factories in Gansu had stopped selling.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market rose. Methanol in the upper reaches of Hebei and Henan is rising strongly, and local formaldehyde enterprises are passively rising. Hebei Province increased 20 yuan / ton to 750-770 yuan / ton spot exchange, while Henan Province increased 10 yuan / ton to 840 yuan / ton spot exchange. On site terminal demand has not improved, and the factory mostly said that the delivery atmosphere is light and the demand side support is limited.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is active. After the shutdown of Nanjing unit, the inventory delivery contract is the main part, and the spot demand is distributed to the surrounding manufacturers to relieve the inventory pressure of the surrounding manufacturers. The market supply is gradually tight, and the low-end suppliers offer to make up for the increase, driving the market transaction price slightly higher. Downstream and traders just need to buy in the near future, overlapping market is good support, acetic acid market is optimistic at present. However, Nanjing BP, Shanghai Huayi and Shaanxi Yanchang acetic acid plant are expected to recover next week, and the overall growth of acetic acid market is expected to be limited within this week.

Dimethyl ether: the transaction price of domestic dimethyl ether Market is up and down, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The quotation of mainstream enterprises in main production areas of Henan Province refers to 2130-2210 yuan / ton, of which BMW price rises while Yongcheng price falls. Due to the relatively serious cost inversion, most enterprises said they would not lower their offers in the near future.

In the future, there are some differences in the market trend of methanol in various regions. According to the methanol analysts of the business association, the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly consolidated.