Price Trend

The domestic toluene market was generally stable this week, with prices slightly falling, down about 1.3% this week, as a result of the fall in international crude oil, according to business associations’big list data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: The trend of toluene market is steady this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5400 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the turnover this week was not satisfactory. Compared with last week, the port inventory increased by 5,000 tons, reaching about 45,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by fears of global economic recession, another round of interest rate cuts by the global central bank and tariff imposition by Trump, fell sharply this week compared with last week, with spot Brent down 7.73%, Brent futures down 7.5%, WTI futures down 5.77%, Dubai futures down 5.88%.

Downstream, TDI, prices fell, trading is not strong, short-term TDI is expected to maintain a small volatility consolidation trend. In the PX market, the decline of the external price has a negative impact on the domestic PX market price. The domestic PX price trend is temporarily stable. It is expected that the short-term PX market price will maintain a volatile trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the United States and Iraq, the follow-up game of Sino-US trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand in the global economic outlook after a new round of interest rate cuts by the global central bank. Overall, the toluene market is expected to experience a slight fluctuation next week.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate was temporarily stable this week. As of August 9, the average tax price of the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory was 6550 yuan/ton, and the market was stable.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week’s potassium carbonate market is not good, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing just needs, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is low, the overall inventory low purchasing market momentum is low, the domestic potassium carbonate market is stable. According to the statistics of business associations: on August 10, the quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate mainstream factory is about 6500-6800 yuan/ton (quotation only for reference). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the short-term consolidation of potassium carbonate prices, long-term market still needs to wait and see, “gold nine silver ten” is coming, the market may be somewhat warmer, mainly concerned about whether the late demand side has improved.

Price trends:

On August 10, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 53.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 20.13% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic hydrobenzene market fell. The average domestic market price was 4900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 4850 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 1.02%.

Domestic market: Hydrobenzene enterprises started relatively stable this week, and the domestic market except Shanxi, Hebei and Henan basically started normal. The tender price of crude benzol in the main producing area dropped sharply this week, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton. Market participants were short-sighted. The enthusiasm of entering the market downstream was not high and the transaction was limited. It further suppressed the hydrobenzene market. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the market fell by about 200-250 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: crude oil rebounded on Thursday after falling this week. By Friday’s close, Brent was 5.93% lower than last Friday, while WTI was 2.34%. Influenced by the trade war at the beginning of the week, market concerns about slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand revived. EIA again lowered its global oil demand forecast and international oil prices fell. On Wednesday, EIA released data showing that U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks had increased and international stocks had plunged as of August 2. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia said it would take measures to stabilize the oil market and stop oil prices falling and rebounding. Pure benzene: Sinopec lowered the listing price of 100 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton of pure benzene on the 5th and 8th respectively; Sinopec lowered the price next day by 250 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, about 156,000 tons of pure benzene were in stock at the port, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market. Crude Benzene: There are many negative factors in the market this week, pure benzene outer plate and international crude oil are lower. The market is generally bearish on Sinopec pure benzene future market. In macro aspect, RMB exchange rate breaks 7, friction escalation, pure benzene outer plate continues to decline, market mentality is not good, and the pressure on manufacturers to move goods increases. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene enterprises start relatively stable, but at present manufacturers are not very motivated to purchase, and have digested pre-inventory. In Shanxi, Henan and Hebei, the start-up rate of some hydrobenzene enterprises has not been restored, the downstream demand is limited, and crude benzene lacks downstream support. Supply side: This week, coking enterprises started stably, with a steady start-up rate of about 7-80%. The market is relatively abundant, and there is pressure on coking enterprises to deliver goods.

3. Trend forecast:

Pure benzene and international oil prices both fell this week, the market mentality is not good, pure benzene market inside and outside the market continues to hang upside down short market, although hydrobenzene or dragged by the industrial chain, is expected to weaken next week.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, domestic R134a factory price slightly declined this week. As of the end of the week (9), the price was 27833.33 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the trend of 28166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (5 days), and 5.11% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In early August, major air-conditioning manufacturers have carried out phased maintenance, the overall demand for refrigerants has declined. The price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material in the market, has fallen, which has insufficient support for the cost of refrigerants, resulting in bad luck. The overall shipment of refrigerants is light and the local inventory is under pressure. The shipment rate of enterprises such as sub-packaging and trade has slowed down and stocks are in hand, and the risk aversion sentiment still exists. At present, the refrigerant R134a is mainly for after-sale market, and the refrigerant R134a manufacturer has low start-up and low inventory. The peak season for refrigerants has passed, and demand has declined even more. At present, the market price is mostly concentrated between 26000-30000 yuan/ton. According to data monitoring from business associations, as of August 09, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 27500 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 26000 yuan/ton, Shandong Yue’an New Materials Co., Ltd. was 30000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 2700 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Blue Planet Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. The price of the company is 28,000 yuan per ton, that of Hunan Longxun Trading Co., Ltd. is 25,500 yuan per ton, and that of Shanghai Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 27,000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid of upstream products has been declining continuously. In the near future, the market situation of manufacturers has not improved significantly. Domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton. 。 Downstream demand performance is more weak, market negotiation enthusiasm is weak, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, basic on-demand procurement.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the current peak season of refrigerant R134a has passed, demand continues to decline, the price of raw materials hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the cost of refrigerants is insufficient to support, the market situation of oversupply is difficult to change. Generally speaking, there is still room for future refrigeration R134a prices to fall.

On August 8th, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15th, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 8th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 7, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 774-776 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 793-795 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 7, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 51.09 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.54 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 56.23 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.71 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which has lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA prices declined on the 8th. The average price of East China was raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 7th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 84%, and the downstream production and sales rate did not change much. However, PTA market prices were slightly lower. It is expected that PX market prices will be lower in the later period. Maintain shock.