On February 24th, the domestic natural rubber market welcomed its first trading day after the Spring Festival. The main Shanghai rubber contract opened high and rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 17030 yuan/ton, up 4.38% from the closing price of 16315 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the holiday.
The spot market has rebounded synchronously, with prices for Thai cigarettes and standard rubber increasing. Domestic spot prices for all latex follow the upward trend of futures, and traders are actively quoting. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of February 24th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16833 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from the pre holiday price.
External market strengthens, supply side contracts, igniting post holiday uptrend
On the one hand, during the Spring Festival holiday, Tokyo rubber futures have risen by about 3%, and the prices of Thai raw materials such as glue and cup glue have also increased. As of February 24th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, an increase of 9.84% from the pre holiday price of 61.00 baht/kg. On the other hand, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are gradually entering a low yield season, coupled with local rainfall affecting rubber production, resulting in a lower year-on-year output of raw materials. The domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in a winter cutting period, with a shortage of domestic rubber supply and an overall tight supply pattern in the market.
In addition, the domestic macro atmosphere is relatively warm, and there is a strong demand for repairing the valuation of natural rubber. The resonance of emotions between the natural rubber spot market and the futures market has driven up the price of natural rubber significantly.
Future outlook:
The natural rubber analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current seasonal tightening of supply and strong support from external markets will maintain high natural rubber prices in the short term. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the speed of downstream tire companies’ resumption of production and the intensity of Tianjiao’s inventory destocking.

This week, the melamine market has indeed shown a pattern of “stability oriented, narrow upward trend”. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (5675.00 yuan/ton).
1、 Market dynamics
The recent stability of the market is mainly due to the balance of three factors: cost, supply, and demand
1. Cost side: The price of raw material urea increased in January, providing rigid cost support for melamine and limiting the downward space of prices.
2. Supply side: Although the devices that were previously repaired have gradually resumed production and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded, there has not yet been a serious oversupply pressure, and the market supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
3. Demand side: Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a slow pace of resuming work, and often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The large-scale pre holiday stocking wave has not appeared significantly. At the same time, the export market performed steadily, but failed to provide an unexpected boost.
2、 Short term outlook for the future market
Overall, during the period before the Spring Festival, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. The solid cost bottom line and the strong willingness of production enterprises to stabilize prices determine that prices are difficult to fall deeply in the short term. The weak domestic demand and the lack of strong export drivers have also suppressed the potential for significant price increases.
The choice of the next direction for the market will mainly depend on factors such as the intensity of downstream resumption of work and replenishment after the holiday, as well as whether export orders can significantly improve.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6316 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (reference price of n-butanol is 6533 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.32%. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6663 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 347 yuan, a decrease of 5.20%.
Negative pressure on Shandong n-butanol market continues to approach downward trend
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early February, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell. As we enter this week, the n-butanol market continues to decline, and the focus of on-site negotiations continues to move towards lower levels. Major companies have lowered their n-butanol shipment prices, and the price difference between high and low prices in the market has widened. The market low price has fallen to 6050 yuan/ton. As of February 10th, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 6050-6700 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply side: Currently, the overall supply of n-butanol in the Shandong region is sufficient, and some large factories in Shandong lowered their quotations on February 9th, driving down market prices.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers are nearing the end of their pre Spring Festival restocking, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm and an increase in resistance to high priced sources, resulting in a decline in market transactions.
Future forecast
In the short term, before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the n-butanol market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation or range oscillation pattern, and the trading center may continue to narrow downward. In the long run, after the holiday, the market needs to focus on the progress of downstream resumption of work and production, the trend of raw material propylene prices, and the operation of facilities. If demand does not recover as expected, there will still be downward pressure on prices.

price trend
The PA6 market has stabilized after a slight increase in the past week (January 31st to February 6th, 2026). On February 6th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 10666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the beginning of the week (January 31st, 10566.67 yuan/ton). The market trading atmosphere has turned flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the overall price of PA6 remains strong due to cost support. The current PA6 price is still at a low level in nearly five years, down about 16% from the same period last year, and the overall profit pressure in the industry has not been fundamentally relieved.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
This week, there has been an increase in maintenance at the caprolactam factory, leading to a tightening of market supply and a slight increase in prices. The benchmark price of caprolactam slightly increased from 9573.33 yuan/ton on January 31 to 9656.67 yuan/ton on February 6, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The strengthening of the cost side provides a foundation for the price recovery of PA6.
Supply side:
This week, the main PA6 factory equipment has been operating relatively stably, but some factories have increased maintenance, delayed restart of equipment, and slightly tightened market supply, which has to some extent supported the manufacturer’s attitude of raising prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, downstream end users of PA6 are gradually taking a break this week, resulting in a significant reduction in procurement demand and entering the seasonal off-season. Therefore, we maintain a cautious attitude towards PA6 procurement and mostly stock up on demand.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the PA6 market price is expected to maintain a high and strong consolidation trend. Follow up on the fluctuations in crude oil and pure benzene prices, as well as the pace of upstream and downstream resumption of work.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 54113 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.32%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.37%. The domestic ethanol market has risen narrowly, with slight regional differences. Driven by the rise in raw material prices, domestic ethanol manufacturers’ quotations have increased.
On the cost side, in terms of bio fermented ethanol, the high price of raw material corn forms strong cost support, while downstream chemical enterprises and intermediaries have significant pre holiday stocking demand, jointly driving up prices. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From the supply side, the main factories in Northeast China have generally reduced production. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the demand side is active, downstream and intermediaries are actively stocking up before the holiday, and the chemical industry’s essential procurement is stable. Driven by the sentiment of ‘buying up, not buying down’, the market has a good trading atmosphere. The tight pace of factory delivery has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations, forming upward support for prices. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, cost support remains evident, factories maintain low load operation, coupled with downstream demand for post holiday replenishment. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term ethanol market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.