According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.90% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to September 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 3.52% to 9466.67 yuan/ton. The economic outlook for October is expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to increase. In addition, after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of isooctanol. With the end of the replenishment, demand has fallen, and the high price of isooctanol has fallen. The supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

Cost support for isooctanol in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of propylene was 6833.25 yuan/ton, which was a consolidation after an increase of 4.91% compared to the propylene price of 6513.25 yuan/ton on October 1st. Crude oil prices are consolidating strongly, supported by costs. In October, propylene prices fluctuated and rose, while the cost of isooctanol raw materials increased. The cost support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in October.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices consolidate after rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the DOP price was 9188.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 2.23%; Compared to the DOP price of 9388.75 yuan/ton on October 9th, it has decreased by 2.13%. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP, resulting in a rise in DOP prices after the holiday. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has increased; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The demand for octanol rose and then fell, and the price of octanol rose and then fell; DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP is relatively stable. Plasticizer demand support, octanol demand support still exists, and octanol prices are fluctuating and stabilizing.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, favorable policies continue to emerge and economic expectations are expected to rebound. Influenced by macroeconomic policy sentiment, downstream customers are more proactive in receiving goods. In addition, downstream customers are restocking, resulting in a temporary increase in transaction volume and a rise in octanol prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high priced octanol increases, market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, and octanol prices fall back from their high levels; The production load of isooctanol manufacturers remains stable at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is steadily increasing. In the future, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply and demand of isooctanol market will be relatively balanced. The price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices slightly decreased in October. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 78933.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 76536.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.04% and a year-on-year increase of 14.39%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, most of the copper spot prices in October were higher than futures prices, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The overall outlook for copper prices in the future is optimistic.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell from a high level in October. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 276775 tons, a decrease of 7.8% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut to the 4.75% -5% range at its September meeting, and hinted at the possibility of further cuts within the year. This move is seen as a “precautionary” interest rate cut, fully in line with market expectations. Combined with strong consumption data in July and August, market confidence has significantly increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the loose cycle of the US dollar has begun, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals in the long run.

Supply side: Copper and scrap copper imports have decreased month on month. The production in September was 1.004 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a month on month increase of 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.61%. The cumulative production of electrolytic copper from January to September in 2024 was 8.865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of+32300 tons.

Downstream: Terminal demand: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of copper materials in China was 1.032 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.3%. The apparent demand in September was 1.311 million tons, with a month on month increase of 7.3%. The production of air conditioners in September was 18.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the production of refrigerators in September 2024 was 9.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative construction area of houses from January to September in 2024 was -22.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completion area was -24.4% year-on-year. In September 2024, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The cumulative photovoltaic output from January to September in 24 years was 425.16 million kilowatt hours, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.1%.

Import: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import quantity of cathode copper in September was 323000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 73000 tons and a month on month decrease of -0.6 million tons. The cumulative import quantity of cathode copper from January to September 2024 was 2.648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 161000 tons.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in November.

Based on the above situation, the spot TC of copper concentrate has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the contradiction between limited new mining capacity and expansion of smelting capacity is still unfolding. The purchasing sentiment of end customers tends to be cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Raw material inventory is purchased according to demand, and there is little change in order performance, resulting in overall weakness. The Federal Reserve boldly cut interest rates by 50BP, and the tight balance between copper supply and demand provided strong support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in November.

This week (10.21-10.25), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first stabilized and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6023.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6050.00 yuan/ton. Due to weak downstream demand and insufficient raw material support, the ethyl acetate market is consolidating weakly.

This week, the market for ethyl acetate is running weakly. During the week, downstream demand and purchasing sentiment were sluggish, and manufacturers’ shipments were hindered. The bidding price for ethyl acetate from the main factory in Shandong was lowered, while raw material prices continued to fall. The negative impact on costs was transmitted to the end market, and downstream follow-up continued to be weak. Limited orders were placed on site, and manufacturers had a bearish attitude, resulting in a weak downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Looking at the future market, the upstream market for ethyl acetate is weak, with a negative impact on costs; On the supply side, next week, Shandong’s power assisted equipment will increase its load, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity will improve. The supplier’s news is bearish; In terms of demand, downstream demand follows up, market orders are limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the short-term price of ethyl acetate will continue to be weak, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 8780 yuan/ton on October 24th.

Analysis: According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot market for styrene today is relatively strong and stable, with an overall trading atmosphere of average and a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Downstream factories are purchasing according to demand. At present, international crude oil futures are declining, and the inventory of raw material pure benzene is expected to increase in the future, affecting market confidence. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations within the range in the short term.

Recently (10.12~10.22), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 16110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% from 16570 yuan/ton on October 12. The price of raw material butadiene continues to fall, and the cost is weakened by the support of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tires shall be adjusted when starting. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of October 22, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 15850-16300 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline slightly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the price of butadiene was 13162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05% from 13437 yuan/ton on October 12.

Recently (10.12~10.22), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants is still at a low of 5.8%. Qilu Petrochemical has shut down for maintenance, and Taiwan Rubber’s Ube plant is planned to restart. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not significant.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of October 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises has remained stable at around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased to about 60%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will continue to weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a conflict with the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may fluctuate in the short term.