Recently (7.9-7.22), the butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12070 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% from 11690 yuan/ton on July 9. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber has strong support; Shunding rubber production slightly increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 22, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11800 to 12200 yuan/ton.
Recently (7.9-7.22), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, providing strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the price of butadiene was 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.83% from 8966 yuan/ton on July 9.
Recently (7.9-7.22), the domestic Shunding plant has seen a slight increase in production, reaching around 6.80%. During this period, the Shunding rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical have restarted.
Demand side: Recently (7.9-7.22), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of July 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber will receive strong support; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with strong demand for support. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester staple fiber slightly decreased in July. As of July 21, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% from the beginning of the month.
The crude oil market is mainly volatile, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $66.05 per barrel as of the 18th, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract at $69.28 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, OPEC+has released its annual world oil outlook and lowered its energy demand expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to increased sanctions against Russia by the United States, and the United States will impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the European Union and Mexico from August 1st, causing fluctuations in the crude oil market.
The PTA market went out of stock from March to June, and in July, maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, increasing the supply margin. The market lacks unplanned news guidance. In addition, with the start of trial production of 3.2 million tons of PTA new capacity in East China, the supply has increased, and the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 80%.
July is currently in the off-season for textile production, with poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm and a sluggish yarn market. Some factories have reduced their order volume, resulting in insufficient order follow-up. Purchasing is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and fabric inventory continues to accumulate, forcing factories to alleviate capital turnover pressure by reducing production. Coupled with a decrease in foreign trade orders, most of them focus on digesting inventory.
Business analysts believe that some polyester staple fiber factories will reduce production and undergo more maintenance in July, and it is expected that industry supply will decline. However, the overall weak performance of raw materials and weak demand have dragged down market sentiment, which will further suppress the price of polyester staple fibers.

This week, overall supply remains abundant, fundamentals remain weak, and local inventories have also increased. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains stagnant and weak. As of July 18th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8000-8100 yuan/ton, with high-end prices dropping by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply side: This week, the capacity utilization rate and output of domestic acrylonitrile factories remained basically the same as last week, and the overall market supply remained abundant. The expectation of supply growth continued to affect market sentiment, and there was no substantial news of production reduction in the short term. The market is weak and difficult to change. According to statistics, as of July 17th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 76.13%, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous week. The weekly output was about 83000 tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous cycle.
Inventory situation: The fundamentals are still weak, and local inventory continues to rise. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the sample inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 49000 tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons from last week.
Demand side: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 65.90%, an increase of 0.9% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 68.62%, which is 6.72% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 49.90%, which is 3.86% higher than last week. The overall capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased, and enterprises are purchasing raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand.
Cost aspect: The raw material cost has further decreased during the week, and the production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8715 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1.63%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -640 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Overall, the acrylonitrile market is weak due to insufficient cost support, abundant supply with growth expectations (restart of maintenance facilities at the end of the month and introduction of new production capacity), weakened downstream demand, and insufficient spot gas purchases.

The market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained stable this week. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99% compared to the end of last month.
On the raw material side, the domestic fluorite price trend is weak and stable. As of July 16th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% compared to the beginning of this month (3181.25 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises are gradually starting production, and the supply of fluorite enterprises on site has increased, with sufficient inventory. The fluorite market price is weakly stable, and the cost support for hydrofluoric acid is weak.
On the demand side: Although the downstream refrigerant market is in the traditional peak season, due to weak terminal demand and low stocking enthusiasm, upstream products are mainly purchased on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses. The demand for downstream refrigerants is average, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline.
Market forecast: The price trend of raw material fluorite is weak and stable, and downstream terminal demand is weak, resulting in insufficient market digestion ability. The bargaining power of hydrogen fluoride enterprises is weakened, and the loss area of enterprises has increased. Currently, production shutdowns, maintenance, and load reduction operations are gradually emerging. There is no positive support for market supply and demand, and it is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will operate weakly and steadily in the later stage. More attention should be paid to raw material price information and market supply and demand situation.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China had a weak consolidation in July, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of July 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14350 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.81% compared to early July.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In the first half of July, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced a combination of maintenance and restart, resulting in a narrow reduction in load. The average operating level of the industry within the range has been lowered to 75%, with an average weekly output of around 63000 tons. However, PC supply has been abundant for a long time, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and on-site sources of goods still maintaining a sufficient level. After the addition, it is expected that Cangzhou Dahua will restart, but the pressure on shipments will still not decrease, and the market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fell and then remained sideways in mid July. Upstream acetone and phenol are also at a low level, dragging down spot prices. Meanwhile, bisphenol A is also affected by the supply-demand imbalance, with little change in demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.
On the demand side: With the arrival of the traditional off-season in July, the downstream factories of PC have seen a decrease in load, with weak stocking and rigid demand as the main factors, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market in China experienced weak consolidation in July. The upstream bisphenol A market is consolidating at a low level, which provides poor support for the cost value of PC. The upstream concessions have made it difficult for the industry to operate at a high level, and the overall load of domestic PC aggregation plants remains stable with small fluctuations, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. However, with low PC prices and limited downward space, the current market is characterized by both long and short positions, and it is expected that the PC market will enter a stalemate in the future.