On May 5th, the General Plastics Index was 830 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.12% from the highest point in the cycle of 1171 points (2021-10-14), and an increase of 27.11% from the lowest point of 653 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, there were a total of 5 products that rose and 1 product that fell on the April 2024 general plastic price rise and fall list

In April, the general plastic industry saw an overall red trend. After the Qingming Festival, the general material consumption market has gradually taken over the pattern of downstream resumption of work in March. At the same time, March and April are also the peak seasons for some plastic products such as polyethylene. Coupled with the release of pre holiday stocking demand during the May Day holiday, multiple consumer side benefits are added to the April rigid demand base. The strengthening of international crude oil at the beginning of the month in the remote upstream injected strong cost support into the general plastic industry. Except for EVA, the general material market has shown a positive trend during the month, boosted by demand and cost.

PS

Fundamentals: The domestic PS market has taken on a positive pattern in the early stage, and the overall market trend in April was on an upward trend. The raw material styrene continues to rise, while the cost of PS supports a high level of growth. During the month, some devices experienced short shutdowns and supply showed a tightening trend. Affected by terminal demand such as home appliance packaging, downstream markets have stable demand, with good transaction atmosphere in East and South China.

Leading factor: Due to the continuous rise in styrene prices, it has boosted the PS raw material end while also compressing the profit margins of producers. In April, some devices underwent short repairs and were followed up. Coupled with the shutdown of many large factories in East and North China last month, domestic production continued to decrease.

Market forecast: There will be a significant restart of styrene plants in May, with an expected increase in supply. The raw material pure benzene market is weak and consolidating. At this stage, the main positive sentiment of PS is weakening, and the post holiday market may experience stagflation and correction.

ABS

Fundamentals: In April, the domestic ABS industry took on a low-level pattern of load in the early stage, and the operating rate at the end of the month decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. The supply side provided strong support for ABS spot goods throughout the month. The simultaneous rise of three upstream materials has supported the price of ABS. The terminal demand remains stable while the market trading is average.

Leading factor: Domestic ABS manufacturers conducted centralized maintenance in the first half of the month and also experienced varying degrees of load reduction in the second half. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in the supply of goods on site. At the same time, due to the positive transmission of the rise in international oil prices in the first half of the year, the upstream three materials have provided strong support for ABS. In April, ABS experienced a dual drive of supply and cost, resulting in an increase in its high level.

Market forecast: By the end of April, the demand side will have just entered the market, and the support for spot goods will be smooth. It is expected that there will be limited changes in the fundamentals in the later period, and in the short term, the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level and remain strong.

PE

Fundamentals: At the beginning of the month, driven by the positive rise in crude oil prices, the cost side of polyethylene supported high enterprises. In the middle of the month, the industry ushered in a spring inspection, and petrochemical enterprises concentrated their parking and maintenance, significantly relieving the pressure on the supply side. The flow rate of market goods is still acceptable, and pre holiday packaging film stocking also increases the heat of on-site trading.

Leading factor: Polyethylene supply tightened in April, leading to higher costs. At the same time, it is in the second half of the peak season for downstream agricultural film demand, with a combination of bullish fundamentals driving the rise of polyethylene.

Market forecast: Agricultural film is gradually entering the off-season in the future, and there is also an expectation of a decrease in packaging film production, which weakens support for the polyethylene market. However, the industry is still in a period of concentrated maintenance, and there is an expectation that supply will continue to narrow. After the holiday, the polyethylene market may still be dominated by the above behaviors, but the upward space may be limited.

PP

Fundamentals: The overall trend of upstream raw materials is improving, with sustained strong cost support. The average monthly load of the industry is about 74%. During the month, production lines of enterprises such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo underwent maintenance, and some enterprises continued to enter the maintenance process, leading to a reduction in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises of PP have remained stable with small fluctuations, and replenishment operations are mainly in demand, resulting in mediocre market trading activity.

Leading factor: PP raw materials are expected to strengthen alternately in April. After the international crude oil prices rose in the first half of the month, they were consolidated and put into operation; Propane was boosted by the external market and stopped falling and rose in the middle of the month; Methanol supply and demand are moderate, and stocking demand is driving up the month end market. Driven by the cost side rotation, polypropylene from various process routes has gained more profits, which is the main guiding factor for the polypropylene market in April.

Market forecast: After the holiday, the supply of goods is expected to tighten, and the supply side will continue to decompress. But terminal enterprises operate steadily, and stocking up is essential to maintain production. Moreover, the pre holiday stocking volume is not significant, and it is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in the short term.

PVC

Fundamentals: In April, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated narrowly with strong fluctuations, with gains concentrated in the first half of the month. In the first half of the month, the momentum of the spot market was still good, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. Merchants tried to report higher prices, and the terminal just needed support. In the latter half of the year, the speed of on-site sales slowed down, and the buyer camp was more cautious in procurement. There was a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm for stocking up before the holiday was average.

Dominant factors: In April, the PVC fundamentals were bullish and bearish, and the performance of the main futures contracts was average during the transition period. The market lacks guidance and is generally stagnant and stable.

Market forecast: Upstream calcium carbide destocking is slow, while downstream real estate data is still declining. It is expected that PVC spot prices may shift to a range of weak fluctuations in the short term.

EVA

Fundamentals: The mid month market consolidation of raw material ethylene lacks guidance. After the recovery of supply, there has been an increase in offers; In the first half of the month, both supply and demand of vinyl acetate decreased, leading to a stalemate in the market. The downstream load is gradually decreasing, and consumption is shrinking. In early April, domestic EVA enterprises faced high demand and supply pressure. Weak demand within the month and slow product circulation speed.

Leading factor: In the early stage, domestic EVA enterprises started construction at a high level of nearly 90%, and the focus of factory pricing was lost. Although it dropped significantly to around 70% at the end of the month, the demand side continued to be weak, and the supply of goods on the market was overwhelming and difficult to digest. The traditional downstream procurement of foam shoe materials and cable materials is weak. The purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected, and on-site trading is concentrated in low-end offers. There are few new orders in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction is becoming increasingly intensified.

Future prediction: There is no significant turning point in the current domestic EVA market pattern. The second raw material is expected to provide smooth support for spot goods in the future market. There is little possibility of a rebound in demand after the end of the period, and the market may still be struggling to maintain the demand line. In the short term, the EVA market may tend to be weak, and it is recommended to closely monitor the supply side trends.

Market Outlook

In April, the general plastic industry generally welcomed a good start to the second quarter, with a narrow and strong overall market trend. In the future, macro wise, on May 1st, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5% unchanged, and slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting from June. The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth expectations, easing concerns about market prospects; In terms of remote costs, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, coupled with the easing of tensions in the Middle East and a decrease in crude oil risk premiums, have led to a significant decline in oil prices; At present, various terminal enterprises are operating steadily, and downstream enterprises generally need to stock up to maintain production. With the end of the pre holiday stock boom, the performance of the general materials market tends to be balanced in early May; Overall, the pre holiday price trend of the general plastic industry may enter a stalemate consolidation market.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic furfuryl alcohol (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market declined in April. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of furfuryl alcohol was 10125.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 3.57% from 10500.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Cost side: The raw material for furfuryl alcohol is furfural, which is obtained by cracking and dehydrating polypentose contained in agricultural by-products. Furfural is hydrogenated and reduced to furyl alcohol under catalyst conditions. In April, the domestic furfural (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market fluctuated and declined. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of furfural was 9650.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 1.46% from 10100.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

On the demand side: Furfuryl alcohol is mainly used for the production of furfural resin, furan resin, furfuryl alcohol urea resin, phenolic resin, etc; It is also used to prepare fruit acids, plasticizers, solvents, and rocket fuels; It is also widely used in industrial sectors such as dyes, synthetic fibers, rubber, pesticides, and casting.

Business Society Furfural Product Analyst believes that currently, the upstream furfural market for furfuryl alcohol is declining, and there is limited support for furfuryl alcohol. It is expected that in the near future, furfuryl alcohol may experience a weak consolidation trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.29% compared to the beginning of the month.

Upstream aspect

The tight supply of domestically produced bauxite continues this month, with prices of domestically produced bauxite in Shanxi and Henan regions increasing. News of the reclamation of domestically produced bauxite in the Jin Yu region has spread, but local mines and alumina plants have slightly insufficient confidence in their ability to resume production. At present, the supply capacity of domestic mines will not be interrupted, but the inventory level of raw materials will decrease.

The high profits in the imported mining industry have stimulated alumina plants to actively resume production, which has led to the need to import to meet some of the demand under the limited conditions of domestic mining. There may be issues with shipping at some ports in Guinea, and there may be additional charges for transportation.

Downstream aspect

As of the end of April, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum has resumed production of 680000 tons per year, and there are plans to resume production capacity in the near future. In terms of equipment operation, a certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia plans to be electrified and put into operation in May, with an estimated production capacity of about 50000 tons per year.

In terms of inventory: After two months of slow inventory of raw materials, some electrolytic aluminum companies with long contracts that are not saturated have to inquire and purchase in the spot market to ensure raw material inventory.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, with poor transportation of imported ore and strong cost support. The downstream demand side is actively resuming production, and there is also support for replenishing the original inventory demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will rise in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have risen within a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.4% from the price level on April 21st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market has continued to rise this week, with some downstream companies starting to stock up before the holiday, and production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory, driving up domestic supply prices. At the same time, the domestic utilization rate has recently declined, and despite the dual benefits, methanol still rose at the end of the month, providing sufficient support for POM.

In terms of supply:

This week, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained relatively stable, with an overall load of around 70%. The weekly production has basically remained stable. Although the inventory of enterprises was digested in the early stage, there is an expectation of a rebound in inventory load in the future. This week, some manufacturers have still raised prices narrowly, but the benefits of maintenance are gradually being digested. Overall, there is an expectation of a rebound in supply pressure, and the supply side’s support for POM spot is weakening.

In terms of demand:

This week, the inventory situation of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with most of them just in need of goods to maintain production. The release of pre holiday stocking is not obvious, and the consumption level still follows the previous weak trend. The main logic for downstream factories to acquire goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods within the site remains poor at the end of the month. Traders have poor credibility and may engage in underreporting or profit taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market has shown a narrow upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has basically remained stable, and there are many enterprises resuming work after the holiday, with high supply side pressure expected to return. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. At present, the bullish trend of POM is gradually digesting, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the holiday.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak, with spot prices falling narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 25th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11333.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.58% compared to April 19th.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market continued to be weak this week, and the supply side of domestic EVA enterprises continued to reduce their load by about 5% to 70%. Due to the increase in petrochemical plant load reduction, market supply has gradually declined, and some auction sources have decreased. However, due to the negative market atmosphere in the early stage, manufacturers have still lowered their prices, and overall, EVA suppliers have not provided strong support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have started production steadily and slightly this week, and the stocking situation has remained unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. Among them, there are very few new orders for traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires. Affected by the negative market atmosphere, the actual orders were cautious, and there was no significant increase in volume in pre holiday stocking. As the end of the month approaches, there is an increase in the number of merchants offering discounts and taking orders. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have continued to be weak this week. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load continues to fall, and the ex factory prices of petrochemical plants are still being adjusted. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will remain weak in the short term.