According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 15, 2024, the factory price reference for domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3966 yuan/ton. Compared with January 12 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4000 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%; Compared with January 1st (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4066 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early January, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a downward trend. As we enter this week, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate continued to be weak, with poor demand side boost. Downstream demand for electrolytes and solvents was weak, and production continued to be low. The utilization rate of polycarbonate production capacity also slightly declined. Overall demand for dimethyl carbonate was insufficient, and new orders on the market were flat, with slow transmission between supply and demand, Some factories have narrowly lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100 yuan/ton, and the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market continues to shift slightly downwards. As of January 15th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 3700-4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 2% compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, although the overall production capacity utilization rate of dimethyl carbonate is not high, the overall performance of the dimethyl carbonate market is still weak due to the drag of demand. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend:

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 12, 2024, the domestic primary sponge titanium market price remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 52000 to 55000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

 
Analysis of influencing factors:

The production capacity of sponge titanium enterprises throughout the entire process has been released, and the inventory has increased. The domestic supply of sponge titanium is sufficient. Among them, Liaoning has the largest increase in production, with a growth rate of 45%. At present, there is overcapacity in sponge titanium production, and the raw material end continues to rise, resulting in high costs. Downstream titanium material market demand is weak. However, as the end of the year approaches, the stocking sentiment has improved and the inventory has eased, but the signing price remains negotiable.

Post forecast:

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that there is not much room for price increase in the sponge titanium market next week and it will continue to operate steadily.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate still maintained a downward trend this week. On January 11, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% compared to the average price of 93400 yuan/ton on January 7. On January 11th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 101000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the average price of 103000 yuan/ton on January 7th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate and decline this week, with a relatively gentle price adjustment, and most companies’ quotations remained relatively stable. In terms of supply, the number of lithium salt plant maintenance enterprises in the current market is constantly increasing, and the supply of lithium carbonate in the market has decreased. However, lithium salt companies that purchase lithium concentrate and sell spot lithium carbonate are still in a loss making state, and lithium salt companies in the market are more inclined to sell spot scattered orders at a higher price, resulting in a slowdown in the decline in lithium carbonate prices.

In terms of demand, most downstream enterprises such as positive electrode materials still have a low acceptance capacity for high priced lithium carbonate. The phenomenon of positive electrode material enterprises inquiring about prices in the market has increased, and some positive electrode material enterprises have started to accept lower priced lithium carbonate. At present, the overall focus of the market is still showing a downward trend, and market transactions are extremely light. There is a significant price difference between buyers and sellers, and actual transactions are very few.

The price of lithium hydroxide has slightly declined, and the upstream spodumene concentrate market has recently seen a slight decline. Coupled with the weak operation of the lithium carbonate market, there is insufficient cost support, and downstream demand for high nickel materials is slow to follow up. The market is mainly dominated by long-term orders, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and downward, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is cold. The downstream demand for lithium iron phosphate is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, supply pressure still exists, market consumption is slow, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and a pessimistic attitude is obvious. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply contract customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of futures, on January 11, 2024, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 984000 yuan/ton, the highest price was 105000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 104700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.4%. The transaction volume was 214400 lots and the position was 157286 lots.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that currently, lithium salt companies generally offer stable prices, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. The overall market transactions are weak, and the futures market has recently entered a volatile market, with spot prices mostly following the trend of consolidation. With the continuous weakening of the demand side, it is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 10, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8166 yuan/ton. Compared with January 5 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8233 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%; Compared to January 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 8300 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the overall domestic propylene glycol market continues to show a slight downward trend. Part of the equipment in the propylene glycol field has started operation, and the overall supply of propylene glycol has increased. The pressure on the supply side of propylene glycol in the field has increased, and downstream demand for propylene glycol is weak, with average new orders. The supply and demand transmission of propylene glycol is slow. Therefore, this week, some propylene glycol factories will continue to narrow down the shipment price of propylene glycol by 100 yuan/ton. As of January 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is relatively light, and downstream users mainly purchase according to demand. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China has slightly decreased this week. On January 7th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on January 1st, a decrease of 0.60%.

This week, the domestic TDI market is observing and consolidating, with slight price fluctuations. The filling of factory spot goods is slow, and suppliers continue to support the market. The mentality of the trade market is not good, and holders are actively shipping, with limited actual transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong demand for purchasing when entering the market, which weakens the support for TDI and leads to a slight decline in market prices.

The upstream toluene market is relatively strong and rising. On January 7th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6680 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67% compared to the price of 6570 yuan/ton on January 1st. The international crude oil price has rebounded compared to the previous period, with support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, while domestic production has slightly decreased, easing the pressure on toluene supply. In terms of demand, downstream demand for toluene is limited, and support for toluene is limited. The toluene market has slightly increased.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic TDI spot filling is slow, and holders are observing the guidance of supplier information, actively shipping, and downstream buyers follow up on demand. The market supply and demand performance is stagnant, and TDI is in a dilemma of rising and falling. From the perspective of the news, TDI major factories may adjust prices on a weekly basis, which may affect the mentality of traders. Considering that there is stock demand in the downstream before the holiday, holders have a strong intention to rise. It is expected that the TDI market may be stronger in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream buyers and the release of market news from suppliers.