According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.29% compared to the beginning of the month.
Upstream aspect
The tight supply of domestically produced bauxite continues this month, with prices of domestically produced bauxite in Shanxi and Henan regions increasing. News of the reclamation of domestically produced bauxite in the Jin Yu region has spread, but local mines and alumina plants have slightly insufficient confidence in their ability to resume production. At present, the supply capacity of domestic mines will not be interrupted, but the inventory level of raw materials will decrease.
The high profits in the imported mining industry have stimulated alumina plants to actively resume production, which has led to the need to import to meet some of the demand under the limited conditions of domestic mining. There may be issues with shipping at some ports in Guinea, and there may be additional charges for transportation.
Downstream aspect
As of the end of April, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum has resumed production of 680000 tons per year, and there are plans to resume production capacity in the near future. In terms of equipment operation, a certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia plans to be electrified and put into operation in May, with an estimated production capacity of about 50000 tons per year.
In terms of inventory: After two months of slow inventory of raw materials, some electrolytic aluminum companies with long contracts that are not saturated have to inquire and purchase in the spot market to ensure raw material inventory.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, with poor transportation of imported ore and strong cost support. The downstream demand side is actively resuming production, and there is also support for replenishing the original inventory demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will rise in the short term.
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