Price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have risen within a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.4% from the price level on April 21st.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The domestic methanol market has continued to rise this week, with some downstream companies starting to stock up before the holiday, and production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory, driving up domestic supply prices. At the same time, the domestic utilization rate has recently declined, and despite the dual benefits, methanol still rose at the end of the month, providing sufficient support for POM.
In terms of supply:
This week, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained relatively stable, with an overall load of around 70%. The weekly production has basically remained stable. Although the inventory of enterprises was digested in the early stage, there is an expectation of a rebound in inventory load in the future. This week, some manufacturers have still raised prices narrowly, but the benefits of maintenance are gradually being digested. Overall, there is an expectation of a rebound in supply pressure, and the supply side’s support for POM spot is weakening.
In terms of demand:
This week, the inventory situation of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with most of them just in need of goods to maintain production. The release of pre holiday stocking is not obvious, and the consumption level still follows the previous weak trend. The main logic for downstream factories to acquire goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods within the site remains poor at the end of the month. Traders have poor credibility and may engage in underreporting or profit taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
This week, the POM market has shown a narrow upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has basically remained stable, and there are many enterprises resuming work after the holiday, with high supply side pressure expected to return. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. At present, the bullish trend of POM is gradually digesting, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the holiday.
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