This week, the overall supply is abundant, but the fundamentals remain weak, with local inventory rising and the domestic acrylonitrile market remaining stagnant and weak. As of July 3rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8150-8250 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 8000-8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply side: Supply continues to increase. According to statistics, as of July 3rd, the total output of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 83000 tons, an increase of 5300 tons compared to the previous cycle. The weekly capacity utilization rate reached 76.06%, a month on week increase of 4.85%.
Inventory level: Supply has significantly increased while demand remains stable, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory. As of July 2nd, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 42800 tons, an increase of+0.18 million tons compared to last week.
Demand side: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 65.04%, which is -0.96% compared to last week, and the total capacity has increased to 9.965 million tons per year; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 76.46%, unchanged from last week; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 54.05%, up 1.40% from last week. Raw materials are purchased on demand, with limited overall demand growth.
Cost aspect: Upstream propylene prices fell during the week, resulting in a decrease in acrylonitrile production costs and insufficient cost support. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9096 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -1.07%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -896 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 68 yuan/ton.
Overall, there is insufficient cost support, ample supply of new production capacity, and limited room for incremental demand, resulting in a still bearish market expectation. In the short term, there may be differences in price trends between the north and south, and the release of new production capacity from Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will exert pressure on the East China region; The northern installation may have variables, and the enterprise’s inventory is not high, so the price may remain relatively stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has remained weak and volatile recently. As of July 7th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4% from 2500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.64% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The stable operation of production facilities and the increase in market supply, coupled with the off-season of downstream consumption and weak demand, have led to high inventory levels and no upward momentum for formic acid.
From an upstream perspective, there is expected room for a decrease in imported methanol. Under the rise in methanol market prices, downstream industries have seen an increase in production costs, which has suppressed downstream demand and production under the situation of losses. As a result, the domestic methanol spot market has stabilized at a high level. The partial maintenance of the raw material liquid ammonia unit has not yet resumed, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2300-2450 yuan/ton.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current supply and demand of formic acid are weak. Although the raw material side provides some support, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in June 2025, with an overall increase. From June 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5470 yuan/ton to 6070 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.97% during the period.
Early October: The toluene market fluctuated and rose in this cycle, and the supply in Shandong region was tight this week. Some enterprises stopped work for maintenance, and the market supply was significantly tight. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent enthusiasm for entering the market, but overall demand tends to be rigid. The East and South China regions have been affected by port conditions this week, resulting in tight supply. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Mid month: The toluene market fluctuated and rose, and the supply in Shandong region remained tight this week. Some enterprises pre sold, and the market supply was significantly tight. The ex factory prices of local refining enterprises were generally raised. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent level of enthusiasm for entering the market, with active inquiries. The port inventory in East and South China has significantly decreased this week, and the supply is also tight. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Late period: The toluene market first rose and then fell, and the international crude oil trend fluctuated, causing the toluene market to follow suit. As the end of the month approached, geopolitical conflicts eased, and due to the weakening of crude oil, toluene prices declined, resulting in an overall bearish supply-demand performance.
On the cost side, the crude oil market prices surged and plummeted in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.73 per barrel. The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations this cycle, mainly due to the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As the situation escalated and cooled down, crude oil prices have correspondingly risen and fallen sharply, with high volatility.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of June 30th, East China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6250-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100-6200 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable and sales are normal, with a price reduction of 450 yuan/ton compared to May 29. As of June 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $841-843/ton FOB Korea and $866-868/ton CFR China, an increase of $5/ton from May 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, with the toluene market being more affected. With the shutdown of Dalian Petrochemical, there has been a slight boost in supply, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, and the overall supply and demand for toluene remains bearish. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, it is expected that the recent toluene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range, and the focus will be on the trend of crude oil in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was flat in the first half of June and rose in the second half, with most brand products experiencing price increases. As of June 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7466.67 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.99% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early June, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remained highly tense. The market is increasingly concerned about the risk of crude oil supply. At the same time, the seasonal increase in fuel demand has boosted the market synchronously. However, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was reached at the end of the month, and the risk of oil supply interruption in the Middle East region was simultaneously reduced. Oil prices quickly fell after rising. Due to the transmission of the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic propane sector has now risen to a high level, and the cost support of PDH manufacturing enterprises has strengthened, while the propylene sector has fallen after rising. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials in June have provided strong support for costs, and the level of geopolitical tension in Europe may fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor international oil prices.
Supply side:
In June, the load of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated and increased, while the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has risen to nearly 80% compared to 77% at the beginning of the month. The weekly average total production has increased to over 780000 tons, and domestic inventory has been partially digested at around 600000 tons. The Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Fourth Line in the area will be put into operation on June 19th. At the same time, Zhenhai Line, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have all reduced their production capacity and basically flattened their production capacity. Overall, the supply side’s support for PP spot prices in June was ambiguous and the intensity was average. However, in addition to the 500000 tons/year new production capacity of Zhenhai Fourth Line that has already been put into operation, and the presence of Yulong Petrochemical and other enterprises in the fourth quarter, a total of 900000 tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, severely limiting the long-term supply pattern.
In terms of demand:
In June, the demand for PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. There is also a certain shrinkage in materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields. On site new orders tend to focus on scattered small orders and contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity and a further slowdown in PP demand release speed. The news of the second round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States within the month has strengthened the mentality of some businesses and stimulated the market to release some of the demand for replenishment. However, in the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide sufficient support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In June, the domestic PP market prices first remained flat and then rose. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream of the far end has experienced significant fluctuations after rising, and overall support for PP remains strong. The industry’s inventory has been partially digested, and the supply remains abundant. Consumption is at a low season level. The current cost side benefits are intertwined with the negative effects of supply and demand contradictions, and the market speculation atmosphere has fallen. It is expected that the PP market will continue to digest the previous gains in the short term and enter a consolidation market. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost situation.

Price trend: first rising and then falling, rebounding at the end of the month
At the beginning of the month, Indonesian mineral prices supported nickel prices, and the center of gravity shifted upward. On June 9th, it rose to a high point of 124133 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%. Subsequently, the loosening of Philippine policies (lifting the ban on raw ore exports) intensified expectations of oversupply, coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation suppressing market sentiment. Nickel prices continued to bottom out, and on June 24th, nickel prices fell below the 120000 yuan mark to 119050 yuan/ton, hitting a four-year low. At the end of the month, with the easing of geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, nickel prices rebounded strongly, but due to high inventory pressure, the market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 27th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122433.33 yuan/ton, slightly up 0.01% from the beginning of the month, but still down 10.10% year-on-year.
Macro perspective: intertwining long and short positions
The US tariff policy has been intensified: steel and aluminum tariffs have been raised from 25% to 50%, and tariffs have been imposed on steel derived products (such as household appliances), directly suppressing the demand for stainless steel (70% of nickel consumption relies on stainless steel), with obvious negative transmission.
The contradiction between employment and inflation: In May, the United States added 139000 non farm jobs (exceeding expectations), with hourly wages increasing by 0.4% month on month, and inflation pressure continues. Despite Trump’s call for interest rate cuts, economic resilience may delay the Federal Reserve’s easing policy.
Domestic policy support: The weak manufacturing sector in May reflects weak demand for industrial metals, but retail data exceeded expectations, indicating consumer resilience. The policy of “trade in” is being intensified: the third batch of national subsidy funds will be issued in July, and monthly plans will be formulated in different fields, which is expected to boost terminal consumption expectations. The Premier’s statement: China insists on opening up its market, strengthening global economic confidence, and indirectly supporting metal demand expectations.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore (June 2) is 15221 US dollars per ton (down 1.19% from the previous period), with limited decline and strong willingness to raise prices for high cost mines; However, actual shipments were affected by rainfall and were lower than the expected quota (300 million wet tons have already been issued).
Philippines: Despite the end of the rainy season, the shipment volume is still limited, and the cancellation of export bans from a policy perspective exacerbates concerns about long-term oversupply.
Significant inventory pressure: LME nickel inventory increased by 4914 tons (to 204294 tons) within the month, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons (to 21257 tons) within the month. The increase in inventory is greater than the decrease in inventory, and the pattern of oversupply continues to be under pressure.
Accelerated capacity expansion: Multiple nickel projects have been put into operation in Indonesia, and Macquarie expects oversupply to continue until 2027-2028.
Hidden cost support: Russian company Norinco claims that current prices have caused losses for 25% of global nickel companies, and Indonesia plans to regulate mineral prices to maintain stability.
Demand side: Weak stainless steel and insufficient new energy momentum
Stainless steel market: On June 27th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India have reduced production but their accumulated inventory has not been depleted, and terminal demand has not shown any improvement.
The growth rate of new energy is slowing down: lithium iron phosphate batteries are squeezing the share of ternary batteries, and the demand for nickel from ternary batteries is weakening.

Market forecast: The upward trend of nickel prices is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward trend is supported by costs. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.