Last week (March 3-9, 2025), the price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon filament, fell under pressure in the market. The nylon PA6 slicing market experienced a narrow decline, with weakened cost support and weak purchasing willingness in downstream markets. The main consumption of raw material inventory was high, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Actual orders were limited, and the price of nylon fiber market declined narrowly. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of cost and changes in downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly average price of nylon filament decreased narrowly last week (March 3-9, 2025). As of March 9, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.88%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.87%; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 17200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.58%.

Downstream channel of raw material caprolactam

In terms of cost: Since late February, the market price of caprolactam has entered a downward trend, and the performance of terminal demand has been lower than expected, which has led to a sharp increase in the pressure on polymerization factories to ship. The demand side’s follow-up sentiment towards caprolactam has rapidly cooled down. As of March 9, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10763 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.88%.

Supply and demand: Last week (March 3-9, 2025), the downstream market had weak purchasing intentions and mainly consumed raw material inventory. There was a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, with limited actual transactions and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost wise: The market for caprolactam is bearish, and the production capacity of caprolactam in the market will be released, resulting in an increase in supply. The demand side will maintain on-demand procurement, and the short-term caprolactam market price will be mainly weak.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers have resumed normal production, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream enterprises have a certain amount of raw material inventory, and coupled with insufficient confidence in the future market, the demand for replenishment is limited.

Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and nylon PA6 chips are mainly operating weakly, with poor cost support and continued weak demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the price of nylon filament may continue its weak downward trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament showed a stable to weak trend this week, with slight price reductions in some areas, but the overall trend is relatively stable. On March 7th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7350 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7700 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices have been fluctuating due to the geopolitical situation, with PX prices increasing supported by maintenance plans and oil blending demand. However, the sufficient supply of PTA has led to a decline in its prices, weakening the cost support of polyester filament and further suppressing the price increase space of polyester filament.

In terms of demand, the downstream weaving start-up rate is about 70%, but new orders are mainly in “small batches and short cycles”, with limited increase in foreign trade orders and low enthusiasm for terminal stocking, resulting in cautious procurement. The trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market is flat, with many users in urgent need of replenishment. Although the traditional peak season is approaching, the export of terminal textiles is weak, and the recovery of domestic sales is limited, which suppresses the release of demand.

In terms of inventory, the production and sales of polyester filament are under pressure. The average production and sales of polyester are 31.2%, and the overall inventory in the market is concentrated between 9-19 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 9-20 days, FDY inventory is around 7-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 8-20 days.

Overall, the price of polyester filament yarn remained stable but slightly weak this week, with core influencing factors including weak dual raw materials on the cost side, weak downstream demand, and inventory pressure from manufacturers. Business Society believes that the decline in the polyester filament yarn market is limited, and future attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, recovery of terminal orders, and industry capacity adjustments.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, on March 6th, copper prices rose strongly, with a daily increase of over a thousand yuan, reaching 78323.33 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.93%. Copper prices have been fluctuating upwards since early January this year, rising 6.09% from the beginning of the year and reaching a new high in nearly May. Copper prices in the New York market surged by over 5% on Wednesday, further surpassing other global benchmark prices. The source of this copper market storm lies directly in US President Trump’s remarks about the possibility of imposing high tariffs on imported copper, which quickly triggered a chain reaction in the market, pushing up US copper prices and further surpassing the global benchmark London copper price.

Multiple favorable factors

US tariffs trigger market volatility

In his speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump mentioned imposing tariffs on copper, and traders are concerned that the tariffs may be higher than expected and come earlier, triggering a crazy rise in copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) during the Asian session. Market participants generally believe that once import copper tariffs are implemented, it will limit the supply of copper and push up prices. This concern quickly spread in the market, triggering panic buying by investors and exacerbating the upward trend of copper prices.

weaker dollar

The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has heated up, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar. The weakening of the US dollar has made commodity prices denominated in US dollars relatively cheaper, attracting more international buyers to enter the market and further driving up demand for copper.

Geopolitical events

Geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US China trade friction, exacerbated the market’s concern about the stability of the supply chain, and promoted the flow of safe haven funds into the bulk commodity market.

Policy stimulus

China has launched fiscal stimulus measures, such as large-scale equipment upgrades, while Germany plans to establish a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening of the US dollar, this has boosted the financial attributes and industrial demand for copper.

By 2027, the demand for copper in data centers may account for 3.3% of global copper demand (compared to only 5.2% for electric vehicles), which will drive up copper prices and have a profound impact on the global copper market.

Mining production interruption

Several major copper mines around the world, such as the Cobre copper mine in Panama, have suspended production due to environmental protests or policy issues, and strikes in Chile and Brazil have also affected production. Mining giants such as Anglo American Resources have lowered their production targets, resulting in a slowdown in the growth rate of copper concentrate supply.

Smelting costs and inventory pressure

The copper concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to decline to negative values, putting pressure on smelters’ profits. Although refined copper production has not significantly decreased, the expected tightening of raw materials is heating up. The continuous decline in spot inventory of electrolytic copper in China further exacerbates supply concerns.

Demand side: driven by new energy and electrification

The global energy transition is accelerating, with a surge in investment demand for electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and the power grid. As the largest consumer of copper, China’s power grid investment and new energy policies (such as equipment renewal action plans) directly drive copper demand. Electrification demand is expected to account for over 50% of the global increase in copper consumption by 2025.

LME copper inventory

According to the above chart, LME copper inventory has been slightly decreasing since late February. As of the 6th, LME copper inventory was 259175 tons, a decrease of 4.49% from the beginning of the year.

According to the annual copper price comparison chart, in the past five years, the copper price trend in March has mostly been positive.

Market forecast:

In summary, the recent increase in copper prices is the result of multiple drivers including policies, supply and demand, finance, and geopolitical factors. Trump’s tariff policy has not yet been officially implemented, and its uncertainty remains significant. In addition, the complex and volatile global economic situation may also have an impact on the future trend of copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term, and in the future, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of China’s policies, the actual impact of US tariffs, and the recovery of mining capacity.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from March 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and prices fluctuated and fell. On March 1st, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 723 yuan/ton. On March 5th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market decreased by 0.92% to 716 yuan/ton.

Negative pressure suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

At the beginning of March, the terminal printing and papermaking industry had average terminal demand, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had weak pricing psychology. They lowered the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another, and the hydrogen peroxide market showed a weak decline. The average market price fell to 700 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by about 50 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average, and the sales are mediocre.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in mid March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry improved, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply decreased. The market may stop falling and rise in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose sharply in February and then fell back, with an overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1877.50 yuan/ton on February 1 and 2545.00 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly increase of 35.55%.

Cost wise: International crude oil prices fluctuated downward in February. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump’s reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke continues to rise significantly, and the inventory of petroleum coke remains low. In addition, some local coking units have plans to shut down or reduce production, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke and benefiting the petroleum coke market. In late February, the transaction volume of petroleum coke from local refineries was average. In the early stage, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, and downstream costs were under pressure. Purchasing was cautious, and refinery petroleum coke shipments were limited. In addition, some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke indicators, resulting in a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices. In February, imported petroleum coke continued to arrive at the port for storage, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the first half of the month, traders mainly executed previous orders, and imported sponge coke resources were tight, resulting in continuous price increases; Affected by the decrease in local coking prices in the second half of the month, the shipment of imported petroleum coke is under pressure, and some coke prices have fallen. However, due to the tight supply of imported low sulfur sponge coke resources, prices are relatively firm.

Demand side: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 layers, and it is expected that there will be a small number of new furnaces added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

In February, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke saw a significant increase. In mid to early February, due to the continuous rise in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure on calcined coke increased, and some companies suspended quoting and accepting orders; Affected by the decline in petroleum coke prices in late February, coupled with limited downstream demand approaching the end of the month, the weak consolidation of medium sulfur calcined coke was the main trend.

In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained at a high level. Sichuan gradually resumed production by reducing production capacity in the early stages, and most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total production capacity of around 300000 tons per year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke is active, overall inventory is low, port spot inventory is slowly declining, and downstream enterprises still have purchasing demand. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will stabilize and rise in the near future.