Price Trend Review
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 16th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 126258 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.20%, showing an overall trend of “rise fall rise, range oscillation”, mainly affected by the alternating effects of macroeconomic sentiment recovery and fundamental suppression.
Macro level: China US trade easing+domestic policy boost
Significant reduction in tariffs between China and the United States:
On May 12th, China and the United States reached a consensus on economic and trade relations, with both sides canceling 91% tariffs, suspending 24% tariffs, and reducing tariffs to 10% after April 2nd, directly easing the cost pressure on export-oriented manufacturing industries.
After the agreement came into effect, the booking volume of container transportation between China and the United States surged by 277% within 9 days, and the market’s expectations for metal demand improved.
Domestic financial policies are being strengthened:
The central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly released a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The expectation of loose liquidity has increased, and the sentiment in the industrial products market has rebounded.
Supply side: Policy news disturbance, inventory surplus remains unchanged
Rumors of a ban on nickel ore exports from the Philippines: There are market rumors that the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 (subject to congressional approval and a long implementation period), which will stimulate bullish sentiment in the short term, but the actual supply impact is limited (after 2025).
Indonesia’s tight supply continues: The rainy season in May continues, and nickel mining is hindered. Domestic trade prices remain strong, providing short-term support for nickel iron costs.
Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 2448 tons per week (to 195222 tons), and overseas spot pressure slightly eased. Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 75 tons per week (to 23501 tons), and the pattern of oversupply has not been reversed.
Demand side: Weak stability of stainless steel, dragged down by new energy
Stainless steel demand remains stable: On May 15th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13255 yuan/ton, up 1.6% on a weekly basis. However, the production schedule of steel mills decreased month on month, and the recovery of the manufacturing industry was slow. Nickel demand only maintained basic demand.
Weakening demand for new energy: The growth of ternary precursor orders is weak, nickel sulfate prices are falling, and the marginal driving effect of new energy on nickel consumption continues to weaken.
Market forecast: Macro sentiment improves, cost support strengthens, supporting nickel prices to rise; However, the pressure of oversupply still exists, the recovery of demand is weak, and the long short game continues. It is expected that the nickel price range will fluctuate upward.
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