Market Overview
At the beginning of the week, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to be under pressure and fell, with light trading and manufacturers offering discounts on shipments. Dichloromethane fell to a five-year low. On May 13th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong region was 2035 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the tariff policies of China and the United States, as well as domestic financial policies, stimulated market vitality and boosted confidence in market recovery. The upward trend of raw material methanol supported the rebound of dichloromethane. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2120 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% during the week.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Partial negative price reduction to stabilize prices, overall still loose
Device dynamics: Shandong Jinling Chemical is operating at a reduced load, with an overall industry operating rate of around 75% and a relatively stable supply.
Enterprise inventory: With the recovery of market sentiment and the strengthening of downstream buying sentiment, the pressure on enterprise inventory has eased to some extent.
Cost side: methanol strengthens, liquid chlorine weakens
Methanol: The market has seen a significant increase, with spot prices rising and shipment transactions improving. Methanol prices rebounded by 4.94% during the week, providing stronger support for the cost of dichloromethane. Today, there was a slight decline. As of May 15th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2426.25 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.99%.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has slightly fallen, weakening the cost support of dichloromethane.
Demand side:
The downstream market of refrigerants is in the traditional peak season, and the market continues to have a high atmosphere. R32 is consolidating at a high level, and due to quota restrictions, dichloromethane is purchased on demand. There has been no significant improvement in other areas.
Future prospects
Policy benefits continue to ferment: the adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States, as well as domestic policies to stabilize growth, may continue to boost market sentiment.
Enhanced cost support: If methanol prices remain high, the profit margin of dichloromethane will be compressed, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices will increase.
Seasonal support for demand: The refrigerant industry is still in peak season, and if R32 prices remain firm, it may drive demand for dichloromethane replenishment.
It is expected that the short-term dichloromethane market will experience strong fluctuations.
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