In August, the natural rubber market in China showed a “V” shaped fluctuation trend. Among them, the prominent upward trend of the Shanghai Rubber 01 contract is from around 12800 yuan/ton to around 13330 yuan/ton, with an upward range of about 500 yuan/ton.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market trend of natural rubber this month was initially downward and then upward, with a turning point around August 15th. The spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 12010 yuan/ton on the first day of this month, and then decreased to around 11760 yuan/ton. It then continued to fluctuate and rise to around 12090 yuan/ton. Although the monthly increase was only 0.67%, the maximum amplitude of the half month market was around 2.77%.

 

Factors affecting this month:

 

1. The weather in the production area affects the production of new rubber more before and less after

 

On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, during the peak season of global new rubber production, in the first half of the month, although the supply of new rubber continued to decline due to latex prices, which suppressed the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber, the weather conditions were good, and the increase in new rubber production was relatively significant; High spot inventory, downstream on-demand procurement; Although the import volume of ports in China has decreased, due to the lack of significant growth in downstream demand and consumption, the production and inventory supply of new rubber continue to be high, and prices are under pressure, leading to a downward trend in the market. In the second half of the month, firstly, the main production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are affected by rainfall, resulting in a reduction in production. Secondly, the expected impact of the recent increase in demand in the product industry has led to an improvement in the enthusiasm of rubber farmers for cutting rubber compared to the previous period; Once again, in the previous stage, traders’ imports decreased, and the pressure on rubber imports slowed down to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the entry speed of spot inventory has slowed down, and the arrival volume of dark glue at the port has decreased. Driven by the improvement in the production of products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone’s spot glue warehouse, the speed of destocking has accelerated.

 

2. The demand is gradually increasing, and the peak season is expected to increase

 

On the demand side, although the “Golden Nine” is getting closer, downstream product enterprises just need to continue to improve. The domestic sales of tires continued to be insufficient this month, but the demand for foreign trade gradually increased. The demand for domestic travel and logistics industries continued to release, downstream consumption continued to increase, and the operating rate of product factories continued to be high. The natural rubber market continues to rise slightly, and the sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in the market is still relatively obvious. The traditional consumption peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is approaching, and driven by frequent national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, tire companies have a certain stock demand. With the rebound in demand for latex products and the increase in raw material prices, natural rubber procurement is more active than in the previous stage, but the amplitude is not very prominent.

 

3. Further Transmission of Rotational Storage News Enhances Market Atmosphere

 

The news spread in the second half of this month when there was another round of storage news in the market, leading to a brief increase in bullish sentiment during the period, which also led to a volatile and upward trend in the natural rubber market. The recent investment atmosphere in the rubber market has improved.

 

Future Market Forecast:

 

Regarding the future market, recent rainfall in Southeast Asia has had a significant impact on the production of new rubber, and the supply of new rubber has slowed down. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. The “Golden Nine Silver Ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber, which has been at a low market level for a long time, may experience fluctuations and upward trends in the future market driven by the aforementioned factors. However, the demand situation is only showing a positive trend and has not entered a stage of significant increase, so it is inevitable to experience further fluctuations.

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Aluminum prices exceeded 19000 yuan/ton in August

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on August 30, 2023 was 19043.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the previous trading day, and an increase of 3.42% compared to the aluminum price of 18596.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

 

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline, and has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton since May. Currently, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton for the first time.

 

Short term upward momentum

 

The price of raw material alumina is strong, and the mainstream inventory of aluminum ingots is low in the same period of the past five years, with relatively strong downstream demand.

 

Fundamentals remain unchanged

 

Enhanced raw material benefits:

 

1. The continuous production restrictions in the Sanmenxia area of Henan Province, as well as the increase in overseas bauxite prices, have jointly exacerbated the problem of tight supply of bauxite. The cost of alumina has increased, and the price of alumina has remained firm.

 

2. Steam coal is affected by news and has positive support in the short term.

 

Increased pressure on the supply side

 

Supply side: With the resumption of production by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in July was 3.481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The cumulative production from January to July was 23.618 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth.

 

Good inventory performance

 

In terms of social inventory: Starting from the second half of July, the inventory will continue to be depleted. As of August 24th, the mainstream areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots have a social inventory of 444000 tons, which is 506000 tons compared to July 31st, and 62000 tons have been destocked.

 

Poor export data

 

Import and export: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2023, China exported 489700 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 3.2964 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. In July, China imported 231400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.

 

The demand has slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the value is relatively good

 

On the demand side: Downstream demand has slightly declined and overall maintained a relatively good level. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to last week to 63.7%, a decrease of two percentage points compared to the same period last year. From a segmented perspective, the construction of profiles, aluminum foil, and recycled alloy sectors has all experienced a downward trend; The recycled alloy sector has also been downgraded due to insufficient orders; In terms of profiles, although downstream demand in the photovoltaic sector is improving, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of weak operating rates caused by the decline in the construction profile sector.

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The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuates and falls

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 29th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% compared to the price of 9575 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the demand for aluminum fluoride was sluggish, and the downstream price pressure was severe. The price of aluminum fluoride fell. However, as aluminum fluoride enterprises began to decline, the supply of aluminum fluoride tightened, and the price of aluminum fluoride stabilized. As the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid continued to rise in late August, the cost support for aluminum fluoride increased. In September, the price of aluminum fluoride changed from stable to rising.

 

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and increased in August

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 29th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% compared to the price of 9483.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of raw material fluorite has increased, the price of sulfuric acid has skyrocketed, and the cost support for hydrofluoric acid has increased; Recently, some hydrofluoric acid units have been shut down, and there has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid; Downstream refrigerants are purchased on demand, but the trend of hydrofluoric acid rise is strong in the future due to the close proximity of gold and silver. Cost support, with increased support for future increases in aluminum fluoride prices.

 

The price of raw material fluorite increased in August

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 29th, the price of fluorite was 3168.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% compared to the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton on August 1st. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains low, and there is still tension in upstream mining. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start mining. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, it is difficult to improve the construction of the fluorite market in the short term. The focus of spot negotiations has strengthened, and downstream enterprises have followed up on demand. The support for the future rise of fluorite has increased, and the cost has supported the rise of aluminum fluoride prices.

 

Market Overview and Forecast

 

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that in August, the demand for fluoride aluminum was sluggish, and downstream customers pressed prices, causing fluctuations and declines in fluoride aluminum prices. However, as the supply of fluoride aluminum enterprises contracted, the price of fluoride aluminum stopped falling and stabilized; In August, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and increased, the price of fluorite fluctuated and increased, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials increased. In the future, gold and silver are approaching, and demand for aluminum fluoride is expected to rebound due to rising costs. The support for aluminum fluoride’s rise is increasing, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will rebound and rise in the future.

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Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have slightly increased this week. On August 27th, sulfur prices were at 1070.00 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were at 1063.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%, an increase of 25.39% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

The domestic sulfur market is consolidating and operating, with high and firm prices. The demand for phosphate fertilizer in the end market is improving, downstream trading is active, and there is good support for sulfur procurement. Refinery supply is normal, and enterprise shipments are smooth. Some manufacturers have raised their prices based on their own inventory situation, and sulfur prices are generally stable. As of the 27th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 1080-1130 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1000-1160 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream market of the industrial chain

 

The downstream sulfuric acid price remained stable, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on August 27th at 266.00 yuan/ton, which was at the same level as the price of 266.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The demand for phosphate fertilizer is strong, and the downstream market is improving, supporting the demand for sulfuric acid. Acid companies have no inventory pressure, actively shipping, and prices are high and firm. Coupled with the support of raw material sulfur costs, the sulfuric acid market is stable and wait-and-see.

 

The market for monoammonium phosphate remained strong and rising. On August 27th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2916.67 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2866.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.74%. The phosphate fertilizer market is improving, and there are sufficient orders for monoammonium phosphate to be shipped. Most manufacturers have suspended quotations and stopped receiving orders, resulting in tight market supply. Traders are reluctant to sell, but prices are rising. Coupled with favorable cost support, the focus of monoammonium phosphate factory trading continues to rise.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refinery units is normal, market supply is stable, downstream phosphate fertilizer market is improving, demand continues to be positive, refinery shipments are smooth, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to be strong. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

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According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3316 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% in price.

 

The domestic market price of potassium sulfate also continues to rise with the price of potassium chloride, and the number of inquiries for granular potassium sulfate in the northern market has significantly increased. Currently, Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers have a large number of pending orders in the early stage, and some factories have continued to accept orders until mid to late September. Currently, the factory price of 50% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3250 and 3400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3400 and 3600 yuan/ton.

 

The overall supply of domestic potassium fertilizer sources is relatively tight, with raw material prices continuing to rise and nitrogen fertilizer prices fluctuating. The procurement of raw materials by downstream compound fertilizer factories is slightly difficult, and most factories maintain a “use and collect” model for potassium fertilizer, with cautious factory operations.

 

Prediction: The domestic potassium fertilizer market is facing tight supply, and it is expected that the market price may mainly show a slight upward trend.

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