1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 13th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7766.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the cyclohexane market remained stable, and the mainstream market price is currently around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene maintains a strong trend, and there is still short-term port pressure after the holiday. However, some equipment news in the pure benzene market has been boosted recently, and the trend of styrene market is still acceptable. In the short term, the pure benzene range in East China will be consolidated.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support from the upstream cost side, and downstream demand procurement is running. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in February was mainly organized, with limited price adjustments for most brand products. As of February 12th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil in the first ten days of the month, due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States at the beginning of the month and Trump’s demand for OPEC to increase production and reduce prices, as well as a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, market concerns have increased. In addition, the recent easing of international geopolitical relations in Europe has led to a significant drop in crude oil market prices. Overall, the upstream support for PP has weakened. Due to the low pre holiday prices and reduced supply, propylene has been operating relatively strongly, but recently it has also been affected by crude oil and has been stagnant and consolidating. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated in early February, and there is a downward expectation for the current cost value, making it difficult to obtain positive guidance.

Supply side:

After the holiday, the load of domestic PP enterprises has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday. Overall, the industry’s overall load level remained stable at around 80% compared to the end of last month, a 3% decrease from before the holiday. The average weekly production in China is over 750000 tons, and the expected PP shipment volume is reduced, but the market supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice was poor, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and the purchasing logic tends to digest inventory. The willingness to continue building warehouses is low, and the operation tends to be short-term buy as you go. The resumption of work in enterprises after the holiday is slow and the load is low. Overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

In early February, the domestic PP market prices were sorted and operated. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry supply remains abundant. According to consumer feedback, businesses are gradually returning to the market after the holiday, but there is a lack of buying momentum on the market. In the short term, it is expected that the speed of PP price rebound may lag behind.

Recently, UBS stated that CATL’s spodumene mine in Jiangxi may restart, but did not provide further details. But this news is enough to stir up industry waves. On February 10th, insiders from Longpan Times, a lithium carbonate joint venture smelting plant located in Yichun, Jiangxi, confirmed to a certain media that the company has gradually resumed work.

In September 2024, Ningde Times made adjustments to lithium mining in Jiangxi Province. The reason was that the cost of extracting lithium from spodumene was higher than that of extracting lithium from salt lakes. After the news of production suspension was announced, lithium prices fluctuated accordingly. Lithium carbonate, which had been declining for half a year, showed signs of rebound. What impact does this resumption of production have on lithium carbonate prices?

The Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine is located in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, with a resource reserve of 960.25 million tons, equivalent to approximately 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. It is the largest lithium mica mine in Yichun. But the grade of the mine is not high, about 0.27%, and the total cost of producing lithium carbonate is about 160000 yuan/ton LCE, which is more than twice the current market price (80000 yuan).

Why did Ningde Times resume production at such a high cost

The reason may be that downstream battery production and sales are booming, and CATL may face a shortage of lithium carbonate in the upstream.

Since 2025, Ningde Times has welcomed a wave of orders:

On February 6th, CATL won the bid for the Guoxin Liyang Energy Storage Power Station project, with a total price of 1.2 billion yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 0.607 yuan/Wh.

On January 27th, CATL signed a strategic agreement with global logistics giant DHL Group.

On January 19th, CATL announced that it had signed a 19GWh energy storage system order with Masdar in the United Arab Emirates.

On January 17th, Longpan Technology signed a new sales framework agreement and a new procurement framework agreement with CATL, both valid from January 1st, 2025 to December 31st, 2025.

On January 6th, CATL also held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony with FAW Jiefang in Ningde, Fujian.

On January 5th, CATL and Conch Group held a strategic cooperation agreement signing ceremony.

On January 2nd, the signing ceremony of the “Ningde Times Luoyuan New Energy Base Project Investment Contract” was held. The Ningde Times Fujian Fuzhou Luoyuan New Energy Base project is located in the Fuzhou Taiwan Business Investment Zone and plans to invest in the construction of a 40GWh battery base with an annual production capacity.

In summary, the resumption of production at Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine is a positive news for the lithium carbonate market, indicating good downstream demand. As the supply-demand relationship tends to balance, lithium carbonate may experience a rebound, and specific market conditions still need to be monitored.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5118 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.31% compared to February 5th.

On the cost side, the 4 million ton PX plant in East China has slightly reduced its load, while a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea has been shut down, enhancing expectations of a tightening PX supply and demand pattern. There will be seasonal maintenance of PX in Asian facilities in the second quarter, and due to a shortage of raw materials, PX supply may be further compressed in the near future, which may continue to rise and support PTA costs upward.

From the perspective of its own supply, the 1.25 million ton PTA plant of INEOS was overhauled on January 13th and restarted around February 8th. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 83%. PTA social inventory is relatively high, and the PTA market continued to accumulate inventory in February. Supply and demand may slightly improve in March.

Part of the downstream polyester plants have been restarted as planned, and the demand side is gradually recovering, which increases the demand for PTA. However, manufacturers are cautious after the holiday, and coupled with the fact that many migrant workers have not returned to work, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slowly increased to over 24%.

Business analysts believe that short-term cost support is still present, and the terminal market is still in the recovery stage. Polyester load is expected to continue to increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply and demand improvement. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament in the first week after the holiday was basically the same as before. On February 8th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7300 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

During the Spring Festival holiday, the decline in crude oil dragged down the trend of polyester raw materials, but due to the downstream weaving end not resuming work and production, the market trading was quiet and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, resulting in a small fluctuation in the price of polyester filament. From the 24th to the 7th after the holiday, prices remained unchanged. On the 8th, some polyester filament manufacturers raised their prices by 50 yuan/ton.

The polyester filament market will be affected by multiple factors after the New Year. The expansion of maintenance scale has led to reduced production, and fluctuations in international oil prices and possible tariff adjustments are also crucial. Recently, international oil prices have slightly fallen but remain high, pushing up the production cost of polyester. In addition, the Trump administration’s new round of tariff policies has added uncertainty to the market.

Overall, current data indicates that the polyester market remained strong at the end of last year, with low inventory levels in polyester filament factories, and the market continued to rise during the beginning of the year. It is expected that the polyester filament market may operate with a strong cost logic, with limited fluctuations.