1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the spot market price of PVC rose in January. The average price of domestic PVC was 6141.67 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6405 yuan/ton on January 30. The price rose 4.29% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC rose in January, and the cost of PVC was well supported before the Spring Festival holiday. At the same time, the futures price has risen slightly recently, and the confidence of the spot market has strengthened. On-site trading is driven by the demand of downstream enterprises for hoarding, which has some support for the spot price. After the Spring Festival holiday, the PVC market continued its pre-holiday market trend and the price increased. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC 5 carbide is mostly around 6180-6550 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of gasoline and diesel rose during the Spring Festival. As of the 28th, the price of 92 # gasoline in China was 9005 yuan/ton, up 2.08% from the 19th; The price of domestic 0 # diesel oil was 7566.4 yuan/ton, 1.89% higher than the price on the 19th. The Spring Festival holiday boosted the market of refined oil.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly in January. The price of calcium carbide was set from 3700.00 yuan/ton on January 1 to 3816.17 yuan/ton on January 30, up 3.15%. The price at the end of the month was 9.84% lower than the same period last year. The price of the upstream raw material blue carbon has recently stabilized at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. Downstream 1,4-butanediol and PVC market rose slightly, and downstream demand improved. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise slightly in the first ten days of February, mainly by consolidation.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the PVC analyst of the Business Society, the price of PVC spot market rose this month, and the downstream replenishment price of PVC spot market rose before the Spring Festival, and the market continued its pre-holiday rise after the holiday. The futures price fell today, which has a certain impact on the confidence of the spot. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC spot market will still operate in a small fluctuation.

Price trend

In January, the POM market in China maintained a stalemate operation, and the overall performance of prices was stable. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 16, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose in mid-January. It can be seen from the figure below that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuated slightly. In the near future, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand has weakened significantly, and some formaldehyde manufacturers have had holidays in advance, and the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much.

Supply: In January, the operating rate of POM enterprises in China continued to decline at a high level, and the industry load was around 87%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, and the inventory position is low, but the gross profit level per ton of processing profit has dropped to about 2450 yuan.

Demand: The load of POM industry has dropped recently, and the market supply is still abundant. The manufacturer’s ex-works price is firm, and under its guidance, the traders’ mentality is supported to some extent, but the demand is general, and the on-site shipments are mostly negotiated based on actual orders. Terminal enterprises have a general enthusiasm for stock preparation, and the release of demand for stock preparation before the holiday is slow, with a slight lag in follow-up.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of January, the POM market remained stagnant. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced at a high level, and the overall supply is abundant. The ex-factory price of domestic materials is stagnant, the pressure on inventory is moderate, and the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory, and most of the goods are scattered orders. The momentum in the market is gradually reduced, and the industry has many holiday and delisting arrangements. It is expected that the POM market will turn into weak operation due to weak demand in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% lower than the average price of 9050 yuan/ton on January 9.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 9083 yuan/ton, which was stable this week compared with the average price of 9083 yuan/ton on January 9.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of January 13, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8650-9000 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 9200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 9300 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 8250-9500 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of the yellow phosphorus market before the festival is basically completed. Many downstream and traders have started to take holidays. There are shutdown plans during the Spring Festival, and there is no purchase plan for yellow phosphorus in the short term. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is light, with cautious delivery and more wait-and-see. The market after the Spring Festival. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 32000-33500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole remained stable at a high level. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall news of the domestic phosphate ore market is calm, the price of phosphate ore has not fluctuated significantly, and the overall market is in high consolidation. Mining enterprises in some regions of the country have stopped mining, mainly receiving pre-orders after the Spring Festival, and the stock preparation in the downstream before the Spring Festival has basically ended. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is quiet and mild.

Demand side:

Downstream demand for phosphoric acid was weak this week, and some downstream enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and terminal procurement has decreased. The phosphoric acid market is stagnant, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been slightly reduced recently, and the support of the cost side has weakened. Before the festival, the demand for phosphoric acid terminals weakened, and the number of new units on the site was relatively small. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be mainly stabilized and operated in the short term, and there will be no major changes before the holiday.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, as of January 11, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton, which was 0.37% higher than that of last Friday (January 6).

The market price of epichlorohydrin has risen recently. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been stable, the price of raw material glycerin has been stable, the impact of cost is limited, the downstream stock is prepared before the festival, the enthusiasm of inquiry and purchase has been increased, the spot supply in Jiangsu and Shandong markets is tight, and the enterprises are in a price attitude, and the focus of the epichlorohydrin market negotiation is up.

For upstream propylene, the reference price of propylene was 7240.60 on January 10, down 0.06% from January 1 (7244.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, the reference price of epoxy resin was 15233.33 on January 10, down 3.79% from January 1 (15833.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, the impact of cost is not significant at present, and the support of supply and demand is still strong. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be strong in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

After the New Year’s Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the market negotiation had increased to 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and it was heard that the market bulk orders had been traded to 18600 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national average price on January 2 was 14766 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it had increased to 17533 yuan/ton, with a wide increase of 18.7%.

From the perspective of supply, the current operating rate of the MIBK industry is 40%, and the continuous rise of the MIBK market is mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expects that the amount of cash circulation resources will be tightened, and the commodity holders have a positive attitude, high expectations for the future, and the driving mood will not be reduced. The quotation is high, and the small order bulk goods on the market reach 18600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the supply side tension will continue in January, and MIBK will have no intention to make profits.

From the perspective of demand, there are few large downstream orders to negotiate, mainly because small orders just need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. The downstream factories have orders just need to purchase raw materials near the end of the year, coupled with the increase in logistics costs, and the arrival prices are high everywhere. It is expected that the short-term supply is tight, and it is difficult to have the intention of making profits. It is expected that many small downstream orders just need to be followed up before the festival.

From the perspective of cost, raw acetone continued to decline broadly. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, and the East China market negotiated at 4650 yuan/ton, the overall impact on its downstream was not significant. MIBK plant costs were low, and MIBK profit space was good. Although the downstream MIBK market continued to rise, the low industrial operating rate had little demand for raw acetone. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK was low, The low cost makes MIBK profitable.

From the perspective of the business agency, the short term market supply tension will continue to affect the MIBK market and support the market to continue to maintain the price position. However, the downstream price pursuit sentiment is limited, the large orders are rare, and the small orders just need to follow up, and the purchase intention is weakened, and there is resistance to the high price level. The business agency expects that the future market rise will be limited, and pays attention to the purchase situation before the festival.