Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market rose slightly in the first ten days of January, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of January 9, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 17400 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.29% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A weak finishing operation in early January. At present, the price of bisphenol A has gradually approached the cost line after a sharp decline in the early stage. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. The downstream demand side continued to decline, the negotiation atmosphere was empty, and the spot price fell. It is expected that the market will be mainly sorted and operated in a narrow range under the support of cost in the short term.

In terms of supply: the load of domestic PC enterprises has risen in a narrow range recently, with the overall operating rate close to 60%. At the beginning of the year, the industry’s processing profit rose, the average monthly operating rate showed an upward trend, and the pressure on the supply side remained. The flow of goods in the field is general, and enterprises and merchants are cautious.

Demand: In the first ten days of January, the starting position of PC terminal enterprises declined, and the production just needed to be maintained. The wait-and-see attitude of the operators is heavy, and the stock situation before the holiday is poor, and the actual orders are mainly scattered small orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of January, the PC market rose in a narrow range, and the upstream bisphenol A was in a weak consolidation, operating at a low level, which did not support the PC cost. The load of domestic polymerization plants was boosted by profits, and the pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. On the whole, there is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, and the market trading is normal. It is expected that the PC market will turn weak again in the near future.

This week’s (12.30-1.6) trichloromethane market fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data of the business agency, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong Province was 2275 yuan/ton as of January 6, up 1.68% from 2237 yuan/ton last Friday, and showing a volatile trend in the week. There was no significant increase in the demand for chloroform, the industry started up slightly, the factory price of enterprises was adjusted narrowly, and the market mainstream offer fluctuated slightly.

 
This week (12.30-1.6), the methane chloride industry started to improve.

This week (12.30-1.6), the spot market of methanol rose first and then fell slightly, with little change in the cost of chloroform. According to the business community, as of January 6, the spot price of methanol was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from 2660 yuan/ton last Friday; The high point in the cycle is 2708 yuan/ton.

In the low consumption season, the downstream refrigerant market was weak and the low price was temporarily stable, the export of enterprises was sluggish, the plant started at a low level, and the support for chloroform was weak.

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side has increased slightly, while the demand side is weak, but the cost side has been supported in the near future. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on January 4 was 3829 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous trading day and 18.66% year on year. On January 4, the main asphalt futures contract 2306 closed at 3789 yuan/ton, down 96, or 2.47%, from the previous trading day.

The decline of crude oil price has a certain impact on the asphalt futures market. In terms of spot asphalt, the spot asphalt mainly maintains stable and strong operation. During the New Year’s Day holiday, the price of Sinopec refineries was raised, and the price of asphalt was raised in some places, driving the domestic asphalt price up significantly. There is a demand for acceleration in some regions, and the market transaction is optimistic.

In the short term, the domestic spot asphalt market is dominated by strong operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market fell steadily in December, and the price fell continuously until after New Year’s Day. At the beginning of December, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 766 yuan/ton. On January 2, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 720 yuan/ton, down 6.09%.

Downward terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline

Since December, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other industries has declined, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined, and the turnover has been flat. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline in a weak way, mainly by more than 3%, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to 740 yuan/ton. During the New Year’s Day holiday, the demand of the terminal industry was still sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to operate in a weak way, with the overall price weakening to 720 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an analyst of hydrogen peroxide from the business community, believes that the demand is low, and the hydrogen peroxide market will still be weak in the future.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on December 29 was 109.93, up 0.34 points from yesterday, down 22.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 30.37% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: The monitoring data of the business community showed that the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market was basically stable that week (December 24-29), mainly reported 2027.50 yuan/ton, and slightly increased on December 29. At present, the country is greatly affected by the short-term policy of public health events. The water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan Province have sufficient inventory. Affected by the partial commencement of downstream enterprises, the reduction of orders compared with the early stage and the recent substantial weakening of logistics and transportation capacity, the enterprises do not ship much; The market of raw hydrochloric acid has remained stable at about 174 yuan/ton so far this month, with unfavorable support. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride before and after the year will be mainly stable and slightly weak.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market continued to be stable that week (December 24-29). On the first day, the market reported 178 yuan/ton, which has remained stable since the seventh day, when it reported 174 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. However, the downstream ammonium chloride market is at a high stage, and the downstream support is relatively strong. According to the analysis, the market price of hydrochloric acid in late December may fluctuate in a narrow range.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG dropped by 13.30% in the week of the shock (December 24-29): the market price of LNG was about 6990 yuan/ton on December 24, and the average market price was 6060 yuan/ton on December 29. In the second half of the month, domestic LNG prices began to fall at a high level. Downstream demand support is weak, and the market continues to fall. Market supply exceeded demand, bearish sentiment on the floor increased, high liquid prices began to continue to cover the drop, and the floor lacked good support. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

Future forecast: after the recent public health event policy was liberalized, the population’s immunity to infection increased in the short term, the manufacturers started work locally, the inventory was sufficient, the demand continued to weaken, and the orders continued to shrink. In addition, near the New Year’s Day and the New Year holiday next month, some manufacturers and downstream have been off. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and weak.