1、 Price trend of hydrazine hydrate

(Figure: P-value curve of hydrazine hydrate product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of hydrazine hydrate decreased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrazine hydrate was 22866.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price of hydrazine hydrate was 21166.67 yuan/ton, down 7.43%. The upstream raw material urea fell in shock, the cost support of hydrazine hydrate weakened, the downstream demand continued to be light, sporadic small orders were purchased, the shipping mentality of the manufacturer was held, and the actual order was negotiated for profit.

Hydrazine hydrate analysts from the business community believe that the domestic hydrazine hydrate cost side urea price may rise slightly, and the hydrazine hydrate cost side support may recover, but the weak downstream demand is hard to change, and hydrazine hydrate price is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Price trend of ethylene oxide in October

According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on October 31 was 6800 yuan/ton, down 9.33% from the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); It was 0.49% higher than the market average price of 6766.67 yuan/ton on September 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The price of ethylene oxide was dragged down by the downstream and moved down in October.

Fundamentals Overview

In October, the supply and demand side dominated the price market. On the supply side, at present, the capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene oxide industry is 60% to 70%, some early shutdown devices have been restarted, and new capacity of satellite petrochemical has been added, bringing the expectation of an increase in supply side. In addition, the terminal demand is placed in the real estate industry, and the demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer, one of the main downstream players, is expected to be poor, generally showing a weak expectation of strong supply and demand.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. Ethylene oxide mainly operates weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in October. On October 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6265.71 yuan/ton, and on October 28, the average price was 6021.43 yuan/ton. The price fell 3.9% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

After the National Day holiday, the market price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 rose slightly for a short time. With the end of the small replenishment after the festival, affected by the decline of futures, the lack of confidence in the PVC spot market weakened, and the market price began to fall gradually. Both futures and current prices fell this month, which affected market confidence mutually. At present, most manufacturers do not make external quotations, and the actual transaction is limited. The market trading atmosphere is more light. Up to now, the quotation range of PVC 5 carbide in China is mostly around 5650-6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on October 27, the international crude oil futures prices continued to rise on the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 89.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.17 dollars or 1.3%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in December was 96.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars or 1.3%. The focus of the market is still on the problem of tight supply. In addition, the economic data released on Thursday showed that the US GDP grew moderately by 2.6% in the third quarter, which is also good for oil prices at the macro level.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly in October. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton on October 1 to 3950.00 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 6.76%. The price at the end of the month fell by 50.83% year-on-year. In the future: in the first ten days of November, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. However, the downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC markets declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in the first ten days of November, mainly finishing.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the PVC spot market price continued to fall this month, and the downstream demand was affected by the market performance of real estate data, and the market demand was still lower than expected. Although the upstream crude oil futures and calcium carbide prices rose, the impact on PVC spot prices was limited. The PVC market is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 27, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton. In October, the overall market of white carbon black was stable, with no significant change in price. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The purchase intention is general, the market supply is normal, and the operating rate is stable. It is expected that the overall market will maintain the supply and demand balance in November, with little price fluctuation.

As of October 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the same period last week. At present, white carbon black is operating steadily, with merchants giving up profits and taking orders. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall trend is stable. At present, the market supply is normal, the operating rate is stable, downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the white carbon black market is operating stably, with no significant price change compared with the same period last week, The downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the contract customers are mainly supplied. The operating rate is stable, the logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the manufacturers are active in shipping, and the overall market operation is stable.

As of October 24, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market was stable and weak. At present, white carbon black is running smoothly, with stable operating rate, general purchasing atmosphere, and stable overall trend. At present, the market supply is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase, while the white carbon black market is mainly stable, with no obvious price change compared with the same period last week. The main contract customers are supplied, with stable operating rate, and the downstream just needs to purchase, The logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the willingness to prepare goods is not obvious, and the overall market operation is stable.

Chemical commodity index: On October 26, the chemical index was 971 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 30.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.37% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

According to the white carbon black analysts of the business community, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably in November, with the mainstream price range of 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 26, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9833.33 yuan/ton, 1.03% higher than that on Friday (October 21), 2.32% lower than that on September 26, and 5.43% higher than that on a three-month cycle.

From the perspective of supply and demand: On the 21st, with the increase of demand side procurement, factory shipments improved, the early inventory was digested, and the market atmosphere was warmer. On Monday, market shipments turned weak, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement decreased, and the supply side fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, the market atmosphere was weak. On the 26th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9550-9650 yuan/ton.

On October 25, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7426.60, a decrease of 2.55% compared with October 1 (7620.60). Recently, the raw propylene market has been dominated by consolidation, and the cost is generally supported by the propylene oxide market.

At present, the cost support is limited, the supply support is average, and the demand side is weak. It is estimated that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be stagnant and weak, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.