According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 25, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton lower than that on October 1 (1064 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.91%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.24), the domestic phosphorus ore market has declined slightly as a whole. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton.

In the late October, the phosphorus ore market was operating steadily and slightly. Some mining enterprises in Yunnan Province reduced the price of phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan/ton in response to new orders. Near the end of the month, some mines were shut down, and the supply and demand of the site was relatively calm.

On October 25, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1160-1260 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the recent (10.14-10.24) yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is generally weak, the demand side support is general, and the supply side supports the mentality of the industry. The phosphate rock data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly operate stably and comprehensively, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the consumption of the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 24 was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, 15.38% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has been basically stable since the second half of October, mainly reporting about 15442.86 yuan/ton. At present, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, have stopped production since the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements, and the industry is expected to resume production this month; At the same time, many places have been in a state of silence due to public health events recently. The cost of raw materials continues to rise, the downstream demand is general, the spot inventory is sufficient, and the overall market of polyacrylamide is temporarily stable.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the price of acrylonitrile rose sharply that week (10.17-10.24). As of October 24, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10820 yuan/ton, up 5.56% from 10250 yuan/ton on October 17. At present, the price of acrylonitrile apron in China is between 10700-11200 yuan/ton, and it is difficult to find low price goods in the market. Traders are reluctant to sell. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain high in the future.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the domestic market of acrylic acid has declined since October 17, and the quotation in East China has declined from 8433.33 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton on October 24, a decrease of 2.77%. At present, the cost support is limited, the market transaction is just in demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic market will be dominated by deadlock in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market price of LNG has fluctuated slightly since October 17, up and down: the average market price was 6342 yuan/ton on October 17, up to 6356 yuan/ton on October 22, and down to 6330 yuan/ton on October 24. During the week, the domestic LNG market was in shock and consolidation operation, and the price rose and fell with each other. At present, the market demand is general, and the market trading is weak. With the improvement of transportation and heating in winter, the industry is in a strong bullish mood. It is expected that the market of LNG will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: On the whole, the water treatment market this year is not as good as that of the same period in 2021. Public health events have had multiple impacts since this month. Although some raw materials have risen moderately, there are also raw materials that have fluctuated and declined, and the cost has risen and fallen in different ways. The demand is low and the spot inventory is still sufficient. The future market is still dominated by stability, supplemented by small adjustments.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.93%. On October 23, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.98% from the peak of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 91.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7620.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7426.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 2.55% drop, 20.50% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 10220.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10390.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.08%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Insufficient upstream support, increased downstream demand, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In late October, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. Although the upstream propylene market declined slightly and the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Adjustment of DOP price shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the DOP price was 10410 yuan/ton, up 1.86% from 10220 yuan/ton on October 13; Compared with the DOP price of 10480 yuan/ton on October 11, the decline was 0.67%; Compared with the DOP price of 10120 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 2.87%. In October, the DOP price rose first, then fell, and then rose again. The price of raw materials was adjusted by shocks. This week, the DOP price rose again.

The price of isooctanol rises again

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol in October was adjusted to fluctuate. As of October 20, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, up 3.36% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 17; Compared with the price of isooctanol on October 10, which was 9333.33 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; The price of isooctanol rose by 3.36% to 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol rose again this week, and the cost of DOP rose, but the overall demand recovery was limited, and the future rise was not supported enough.

The price of phthalic anhydride dropped from a high level

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10500 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from 10637.50 yuan/ton on October 15. The number of phthalic anhydride enterprises started construction increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DOP decreased, and the support for the rise of DOP weakened.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business community, the demand for DOP remains sluggish, and the price of raw materials determines the trend of DOP. Recently, the high price of phthalic anhydride has fallen back, and the support for the rise of DOP is insufficient. The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, and the DOP price has been adjusted accordingly. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will be stable after falling, the price of isooctanol will not be able to rise, the cost of DOP raw materials will be stable, and the demand will be low. It is expected that the DOP price will be stable after falling.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 19th, the average market price of the nickel spot market was 192450 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous trading day and 27.1% year on year.

The three major US stock indexes rose, with Lonnie closing 1.14% higher overnight. The rainy season in the main mining area of the Philippines is coming, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The supply and demand of ferronickel improved, and the short-term resource was tight. Indonesia’s tariff policy raised the cost of importing ferronickel, and the price of nickel pig iron rose. The demand for nickel sulfate from new energy power batteries has rebounded, and the downstream stainless steel production has increased. However, at present, the steel plant’s resumption of production has limited incremental consumption of pure nickel, and the nickel beans used in new energy have hardly been traded, but the demand for alloy is growing and the tolerance for nickel price is high. Nickel price is expected to be dominated by short-term shocks.