1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market declined after rising in September

According to the data from the business community, the average price of maleic anhydride as of September 30 was 8400.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 7.97% from 7780.00 yuan/ton on September 1.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In September, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market continued to shut down. The accident in Shandong Dachang in early September, coupled with downstream enterprises entering the stocking cycle before the National Day, led to the continuous rise in the price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride. In late September, the supply of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride increased, and the downstream entered the pre holiday stocking cycle. However, the resin purchasing mood was general, the stocking was cautious, and the transaction was limited. The price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7500 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7500 yuan/ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7700 yuan/ton.

In September, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

In September, the market of hydrogenated benzene rose first and then fell. The ex factory price in North China was 7633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.49% month on month. Near the end of the month, the bad news from crude oil and styrene dominated, while the downstream stock preparation was basically ended, the market transaction weakened, and the price fell.

3、 Future market forecast

Maleic anhydride product analysts from the business community believed that the domestic maleic anhydride market rose in September and then fell. At present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has suffered a serious loss. The factory has been shut down for maintenance, and there is less circulating goods in the market. At the beginning of September, Shandong Dachang had an accident. The supply of maleic anhydride by n-butane oxidation method decreased. In addition, downstream enterprises entered the stocking cycle before the National Day one after another. The price of maleic anhydride continued to rise, and the supply of maleic anhydride increased at the end of the month. Downstream procurement was basically ended. Resin procurement was in a general mood, stock was cautious, and transactions were limited. The price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in September was 4051.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 4126.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 75.00 yuan/ton and 1.85%.

On September 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 320.95, unchanged from yesterday, 21.47% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 379.82% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: In September, the price of locally refined petroleum coke rose first and then fell. Before the festival in the first ten days of September, the carbon market was highly motivated to replenish. The overall support for demand was good. The inventory of locally refined petroleum coke manufacturers was low, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise; In late September, close to the National Day holiday, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, and the procurement was based on demand. The refinery cleared the inventory before the festival, and the price continued to decline.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in September was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose in September; The metal silicon market rose; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and fell. As of September 29, the price was 18156.67 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand.

3、 Future market forecast

The oil coke analyst of the business agency predicted that: the international crude oil shocks and declines in September, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; Near the National Day holiday, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the procurement is mainly on demand. The refinery clears the inventory before the festival. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly weak in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the average price of domestic superior rubber grade white carbon black was 5625.00 yuan/ton, down 3.02% compared with the same period last week. At present, the white carbon black is operating in a narrow range and weak. The merchants give up profits and take orders. The overall market supply and demand are balanced. The negotiation atmosphere is general, the overall trend is stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced. At present, the market supply is normal, the operating rate is stable, and the purchase is mainly just needed.

The price of white carbon black market has declined. Compared with the same period last week, the price is weak. The downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the contract customers are mainly supplied. The operating rate is stable, the logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the manufacturers are active in shipping, and the overall market is stable.

Upstream hydrochloric acid: As of September 26, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Chemical index: On September 26, the chemical index was 981 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 29.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 64.05% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon analyst of the business community thinks that the rubber grade white carbon is mainly stable, the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range is limited.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on September 27, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2805 yuan/ton, up 2.37% from the previous working day and down 20.14% year on year. On September 27, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose in shock. The main contract MA2301 closed at 2739 yuan/ton in late trading, up 92 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day.

In terms of spot goods, the coal price is firm, and the downstream stock is prepared before the festival, which is good for the whole market atmosphere. At the same time, the quotation of production enterprises is relatively high and firm, and the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and acetic acid in downstream products all rose slightly, driving the prices of the entire industrial chain. However, with the recovery of some early maintenance devices, the supply is increasing, and the early stock inventory is mainly consumed after the holiday. The methanol market may enter the consolidation stage.

The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly arranged.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (September 26): 7725.00 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: the cryolite market in Henan Province is stable, and the average price of cryolite production is flat compared with the previous working day. The upstream construction is relatively low, the raw material supply is tight, the price of coal and natural gas is high, which has a great impact on the production of enterprises. Cryolite enterprises are short of inventory, and the price is high. The downstream procurement follows up on demand. The enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the on-site supply and demand are relatively balanced.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis, and the price will remain stable at a high level. The future market will focus on the market supply.