According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market was in shock. From December 5 to 12 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market rose from 2670 yuan/ton to 2690 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose 0.75%, fell 3.15% month on month and rose 5.91% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

 

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As of the closing of December 12, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2301 opened at 2489 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2540 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2477 yuan/ton, and closed at 2527 yuan/ton, up 34, or 1.36%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1307300, the position was 725618, and the daily increase was -169252.

 

As of 12.12, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

 

Region./Price

Shanxi Province/2230-2250 yuan/ton

Liaoning Province./2400-2550 yuan/ton or so

Anhui Province./About 2550-2580 yuan/ton

Henan Province./2470-2570 yuan/ton

In terms of cost, the price of raw coal has risen slightly, and the price of natural gas has stabilized. With the arrival of the “cold wave”, the demand side of steam coal is expected to be released, and the actual supply of goods in northern ports is relatively scarce. Ensuring stable supply in winter is the focus of the market. In the short term, the price of steam coal may fluctuate slightly. The cost of methanol is favorable.

 

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: Jiangsu Sopu resumed production, but Celanese planned to overhaul for one week on December 11, and the demand for acetic acid may be limited; MTBE demand may change little. There is no significant change in methanol demand.

 

On the supply side, the total amount of physical examination and repair is greater than the recovery amount, the capacity utilization rate decreases, and the methanol supply side has a good profit.

 

In terms of external market, as of December 9, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 362.0-363.0 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 86.75-87.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 301.50-302.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price of the external market rose, and the deposit interest was good.

 

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./CFR Southeast Asia./362.0-363.0 USD/ton./6.5 USD/ton

Europe and America./American Gulf./86.75-87.75 cents/gallon./0 cents/gallon

Europe./FOB Rotterdam./301.50-302.50 euro/ton./1 euro/ton

It is predicted that the cost side of methanol will be supported, but the supply side will not decrease and the demand side will not change much. Methanol analysts from the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak ones.

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According to the data of the business association, the trichloromethane market has fluctuated downward since December. As of December 9, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2312 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from 2362 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the cycle low was 2275 yuan/ton. There was no significant increase in demand for chloroform, the supply side was loose, the factory price of enterprises was lowered, and the business offer was lower.

 

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Since December, the commencement of methane chloride has declined slightly compared with the previous period, but overall, the pressure on the supply side of chloroform is still.

 

In the first ten days of December, the spot market of methanol fell first and then rose, with slight shocks, and the cost of dichloromethane fluctuated slightly. According to the business community, as of December 9, the spot price of methanol was 2680 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point in the cycle is 2621 yuan/ton.

 

In the low consumption season, the demand for downstream refrigerant is low and insufficient, and the support for chloroform is weak.

 

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the supply side is loose and the demand side is weak, but the cost side has fluctuated in a narrow range recently. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate later.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 7, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 7766 yuan/ton, and on January 1, 2022 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 16400 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 8634 yuan/ton, or 52.64%.

 

In 2022, the domestic propylene glycol market experienced “three rises and three falls”, and each rise was followed by a more violent fall. The following is a detailed analysis of the propylene glycol market trend in 2022 from three stages:

 

Phase I (up and down 1.1-5.10 for the first time)

 

In January 2022, after the New Year’s Day holiday, propylene glycol plants in some parts of China will resume operation, the on-site supply of propylene glycol will increase, and the downstream demand will be insufficient. The propylene glycol market will fall under pressure, with a decline of 4.67% in January. After the Spring Festival in February, the stock of propylene glycol in the yard was low, and the downstream stores were reserved for the festival. Supported by supply and demand, propylene glycol rose to a high level on February 17, and the market price was around 16900 yuan/ton. It rose 12.37% in early February.

 

In the face of high prices, the wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches increased, the pace of stocking slowed down, and the propylene glycol inventory was under pressure. Since late February, the propylene glycol market started to run at a high level and fell. In March and April, due to special factors, downstream demand of propylene glycol continued to be weak, transportation in many places in China was limited, supply and demand circulation was slow, and the gravity of propylene glycol continued to decline. Until early May, the propylene glycol market had fallen for nearly 80 consecutive days. On May 10, the market price of propylene glycol was 11,116 yuan/ton, down 32.22% compared with the beginning of the year.

 

Phase II (the second rise and fall of 5.11-8.08)

 

Since the middle and late of May, the propylene glycol market has welcomed favorable support in terms of exports. With the increase of export orders, the overall supply pressure of propylene glycol in the field has eased, and the offer of propylene glycol factory has started to rise steadily. In June, the export advantage continues to support the upward focus of propylene glycol. On June 19, the propylene glycol market price was near 14133 yuan/ton, up 25.44% compared with May 11.

 

In late June, the propylene glycol export was calm, the domestic demand was generally supported, and the propylene glycol supply side was gradually under pressure. In addition, the raw material propylene oxide market declined, and the cost support was also loose. The propylene glycol market entered the downward channel again. Under the continuous negative pressure, the propylene glycol fell all the way down to the early August. On August 8, the propylene glycol market price fell to about 7366 yuan/ton, less than half of the market price at the beginning of the year, Compared with the beginning of the year, the decline has reached 55.08%.

 

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The third stage (the third rise and fall 8.09-12.07)

 

In the middle and late August, the propylene glycol market experienced a recovery from the trough. Export orders increased. The tight supply of propylene glycol and increased costs supported the upward movement of the propylene glycol market. On September 18, the propylene glycol market price was 10333 yuan/ton.

 

In the middle and late September, with the weakening of raw materials and the loosening of cost support, and after the propylene glycol price broke through 10000 yuan, the turnover of new orders turned weak, and the propylene glycol market price fell again. After the National Day, the “silver ten” was not seen, and the demand was insufficient. Under the pressure of the accumulated warehouse shipment at the supply side and the intensification of the supply and demand barrier, propylene glycol continued to bottom out. As of December 7, the propylene glycol market price reference was 7766 yuan/ton, with a decline of 52.64% in 2022.

 

Factors influencing propylene glycol market in 2022:

 

Demand: In 2022, the propylene glycol market will gradually decline from about 16400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 9500 yuan/ton in the middle of the year, and then to about 7700 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter. The propylene glycol market will continue to decline significantly. It is mainly affected by demand. The trading atmosphere in the downstream UPR market is general, and the overall terminal demand is slowly boosted, mainly for raw material procurement. After centralized delivery of export orders, the accumulated warehouse of propylene glycol factory was under pressure and began to yield profits for shipment, and the market price gradually fell deeply.

 

Exports: In 2022, the propylene glycol market experienced two sharp increases in early May and early August, which were mainly driven by exports.

 

In the first quarter of 2022, due to the influence of international factors, the export volume of domestic propylene glycol to the Russian Federation will decrease, which will also affect the overall export direction of propylene glycol in the first quarter. In May, the export supply of propylene glycol will resume, and the export orders will increase in May. In addition to the influence of force majeure factors of Dow devices in the United States, the supply will shrink, and the export will be favorable. The increase of export orders will drive the price of propylene glycol to rise.

 

According to the customs data, the export volume in May continued to hit a new high of 16600 tons, up 14.33% month on month. The average export price was 2002.18 dollars/ton, down 13.33% month on month. The export volume to Türkiye is the largest, 1779.4 tons. From January to May 2022, the cumulative export volume will be 76000 tons, up 37.90% year on year. The proportion of consumption reached 37.8%, and the increase of export volume was also the main reason for this rebound. With the delivery of export orders, the follow-up of new orders with high prices is limited. In addition, the domestic market demand is weak in the off-season. The overall high price falls back in the middle and late June, waiting for the next cycle of export orders.

 

In the middle of August, the propylene glycol factory delivered export orders again, and the factory goods were tight and reluctant to sell. The propylene glycol market hit the bottom and rebounded, ushering in a wave of rising prices again.

 

Propylene glycol market forecast and outlook in 2023

 

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic propylene glycol production capacity is on the high side as a whole. Towards the end of the year, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the propylene glycol market is hard to change, and it is expected that the market situation is weak.

 

After 2023, in the early days of the Spring Festival, the propylene glycol market is expected to usher in a staged stock up, and the support of demand is expected to bring a wave of rising market prices to the market. After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the downstream will need time to digest raw materials, and the market will enter the consolidation and operation. Therefore, it is expected that in the first quarter of 2023, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly underestimate the moderate recovery and then stabilize the consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, since December, the terminal rigid demand is not good, and the hydrogen peroxide market is weak. On December 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 766 yuan/ton. On December 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 760 yuan/ton, down 0.87%.

 

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Increase in terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market continues to rise

 

Since December, the demand of terminal printing paper industry has been sluggish, the purchase enthusiasm of hydrogen peroxide has decreased, and the price of hydrogen peroxide has been weak. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market dropped to 760 yuan/ton, a small drop. Some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still pay high prices, which are relatively stable. The mainstream quotation in Shandong market is 600-700 yuan/ton, and the market is weak and stable.

 

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that the future hydrogen peroxide market will still be dominated by weak operation due to weak terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide.

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The price of o-xylene dropped sharply this week

 

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It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of December 5, the price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, down 8.89% from the price of ortho xylene on November 27, 9000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain fell together, the cost of o-xylene fell and the demand was insufficient, and the domestic market of o-xylene fell sharply.

 

Raw material mixed xylene market fell in shock this week

 

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the price of mixed xylene fell sharply this week. As of December 5, the price of mixed xylene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from 7840 yuan/ton on November 27. Crude oil prices fell in shock, mixed xylene prices fell in shock, ortho xylene costs fell, and ortho xylene fell under increasing pressure.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream fell due to volatility this week

 

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline sharply this week. As of December 5, the quotation of phthalic anhydride from neighboring France was 8400 yuan/ton, a shock drop of 4.55% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton on November 27. The price of orthophthalic anhydride dropped sharply this week, while downstream demand remained weak, and orthoxylene fell under great pressure.

 

Future outlook

 

The analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believed that the ortho xylene manufacturers started work steadily this week and the supply of ortho xylene was sufficient. On the cost side, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, on the demand side, phthalic anhydride continued to decline, and the demand for ortho benzene remained weak. To sum up, the cost of o-xylene fell and the demand was sluggish, and the price of o-xylene was expected to decline in the future.

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