Since August, the domestic bisphenol A market has been on the rise, and this week, the broad upward trend of bisphenol A is obvious. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market offer of bisphenol A was 13250 yuan/ton on September 9, and the market offer rose to 13912 yuan/ton on September 16, up 5% in the week.

Quotation of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market:

Region, quotation, weekly rise and fall

East China., 13900., 850

Shandong, 13050, 800

The cost is strongly supported, and the upstream dual raw material phenol/acetone continues to rise. The domestic phenol market has recovered rapidly. By the end of the weekend, the phenol market in East China had risen to 10600 yuan/ton through negotiation. In East China, it had risen by about 600 yuan/ton in the week. Other mainstream phenol trading regions also followed suit. According to the monitoring of the business community, the national phenol market offered 10112 yuan/ton on September 13, and 10700 yuan/ton on September 16, up 5.81% in the week. The phenol market supply is still tight next week, and the port inventory will be supplemented when arriving in Hong Kong on the way next week. However, with the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to the pre holiday stock situation. Bisphenol A continues to rise, and the supply of raw materials is tight or ahead of schedule, while other terminals have limited acceptance of high priced phenol, so it is difficult to avoid resistance. The business community expects that the phenol market in East China will be strong at a high level. Although the increase of raw material acetone was less than that of phenol, the factory raised the listing price slightly, and the market as a whole showed an upward trend. On September 10, the average offer of acetone nationwide was 5312 yuan/ton. On September 16, the average offer of acetone nationwide rose to 5512 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.62% in the week. It is expected that short-term acetone will continue to operate steadily.

The downstream epoxy resin and PC end fluctuated upward. Although the arrangement was affected by the support of the cost, the activity of the industry chain negotiation increased from top to bottom, and the market negotiation price showed an upward trend. As shown in the figure above, the upstream and downstream products have all risen to varying degrees. The market holders have a positive attitude, and the products with tight supply are reluctant to sell. The overall performance of the industry chain after the festival is good, and the market confidence is sufficient.

From the perspective of the business agency, the domestic bisphenol A market is still in a tense state in the near future. There is no production and marketing pressure on the factory side. The offer is firm. Some factories mainly supply contract users, with no shipping pressure. Moreover, the rising trend of dual raw materials is strong. The downstream terminal just needs strong support. The business agency expects to continue to pay attention to the trading situation on the market next week, and is expected to continue to explore the rise.

Acetic anhydride market temporarily stabilized on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable on September 15, and the acetic anhydride market was stabilizing. On September 15, the price of acetic anhydride was 6000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 6000 yuan/ton on the previous trading day. Recently, the price of acetic acid has been adjusted weakly, the price of methanol has been raised strongly, and the cost of acetic anhydride has become weak and stable.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fell in shock, the price of methanol was adjusted strongly, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials was weak and stable, acetic anhydride enterprises started to recover, the supply of acetic anhydride was stable, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable, the demand side, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, downstream just needed to purchase, the customer’s willingness to purchase was general, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride remained weak.

Future market forecast

The demand for cost stabilization is general, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is still weakened. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was 8940 yuan/ton on September 4, and 9900 yuan/ton on September 14. The price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid has risen 10.74% in the past ten days.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9200 yuan/ton on September 4 and 9600 yuan/ton on September 14, respectively. The price of wet process phosphoric acid has risen by 4.35% in the past ten days.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid has continued to rise in recent ten days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stronger, the price is rising, and the phosphoric acid cost support is good. Driven by the rising trend of raw materials, the phosphoric acid market has warmed up, and enterprises have raised prices one after another. As of September 14, the domestic market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid was about 9900 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85 content thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9500-10000 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hubei is 9600 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is 9600 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. The overall market situation of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continues to operate stably. The supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. The supply side continues to provide some support to the market. The low commencement of downstream phosphorus fertilizer has a certain impact on the mentality of the phosphorus ore market. The phosphorus ore market is in an overall situation of consolidation. As of September 14, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is near 1030-1150 yuan/ton, There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is near 850-980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is near 1200 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

Raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has continued to rise recently. Stock up before the Mid Autumn Festival, market trading is more active, enterprises go smoothly, and prices rise along the trend. Some manufacturers suspend quotation before the festival. After the festival, the price of yellow phosphorus is still rising. As of September 14, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus was about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 35000-36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has continued to rise in the near future, and the phosphoric acid market is running well due to the rising cost. The downstream demand increases and the delivery is good. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will continue to rise in the short term and continue to rise.

This week, the spot tin market price (9.2-9.9) fluctuated upward. The average price in the domestic market was 179700 yuan/ton last weekend and 186360 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.71% weekly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of the K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means falling; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 36th week of 2022 (9.5-9.9), including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with growth were nickel (7.49%), neodymium oxide (6.50%) and copper (4.88%). There were three commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products were titanium concentrate (- 0.95%), cobalt (- 0.61%) and magnesium (- 0.39%). This week’s average increase / decrease was 1.64%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai tin, 184960 yuan/ton,+7580 yuan/ton, 2149.,+357

London tin., 21345 US dollars / ton, + 225 US dollars / ton, 4715 US dollars, + 55

In terms of futures market, the overall strength of Lunxi this week, the price remained high and volatile, rising about 2.6% weekly. The trend of Shanghai Tin is similar to that of Lunxi this week, with high price volatility as the main trend, rising about 4% this week. In terms of inventory, the inventory rose significantly this week.

The main range of the spot market this week is 181000-187000 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates at a high level. The trend basically follows the fluctuation of Shanghai tin. After the price surged in the first three trading days, the price fell at the weekend. As the Mid Autumn Festival holiday approaches, the futures market is cautious, and most of the funds have left the market. Fundamentally speaking, the manufacturer’s quotation is generally stable this week, the premium of major manufacturers’ quotation is declining, and the commencement is generally stable. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the recent profits of import sources were obvious, the import sources increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. There is no obvious change in downstream demand in the near future, consumption is slightly weak, the willingness to stock up before the holiday is generally low, the downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rebounded slightly on the 6th, with the spot price of 61766.67 yuan / ton, up 1.46% from the previous day, down 11.67% from the beginning of the year, and down 11.5% year-on-year.

Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly. Oil prices continued to strengthen, with London copper rising 1.62% overnight. The people’s Bank of China announced the RRR reduction and continued to provide policy support, while the decline of copper stocks and the soaring energy prices limited supply. In August, the domestic high-temperature weather caused power shortage, impacted the copper smelting industry, and caused a reduction in production. The new production capacity in Hubei was not ignited, and the output of Anhui refinery was damaged. The overall electrolytic copper output in August may not be as expected. However, after the high temperature eased, the supply recovered, but the global copper dominant inventory continued to stay at a low level, and the downstream consumption was on demand. The short-term copper price is subject to the suppression of macro sentiment and the influence of supply disturbance factors. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate around 60000 yuan.