Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 24): 2744 yuan/ton

On November 24, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly, 0.73% higher than that on November 23, and 9.76% higher than that on the same period last year. The price of upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) is about 1630 yuan/ton, with high price consolidation and good cost support. In terms of demand, winter storage of chemical fertilizers has been fully started, and industrial demand has increased. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant has risen, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. From the perspective of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi, the resumption of work was delayed, gas enterprises began to stop for maintenance, and daily urea production further decreased. Meanwhile, the delivery of urea is blocked.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2760 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9700.00 yuan/ton, 1.29% lower than that of last Friday (November 18), and 0.09% higher than that of November 1.

Recently, the propylene oxide market has been stuck in a stalemate, and the high-end prices of some enterprises have been lowered. From the perspective of cost, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side devices have partially recovered, the northern part has accumulated a little but the pressure is temporarily controllable, the downstream is mainly cautious, the purchasing atmosphere is weak, and the market trading is average. On the 23rd, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9150-9300 yuan/ton.

On November 22, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7306.60, up 3.84% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

The epoxy propane analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is limited, the supply side shipment is fair, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will be deadlocked, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 22, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7466.67 yuan/ton, down 4.27% from the same period last week, or about 400 yuan/ton. At present, the price of cyclohexane is weak, the overall market operating rate is stable, and downstream just needs to purchase.

The average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane is 7466.67 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 7500 yuan/ton. The overall market of cyclohexane is stable and weak, the purchasing atmosphere is fair, and the supply side is normal. The latest prices of enterprises are: Jinan Hengtong Chemical Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, Shandong Lincheng Chemical Products Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, Jinan Jutai Chemical Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, and Shandong Yushu Chemical Co., Ltd. 7300 yuan/ton.

Chemical index: On November 21, the chemical index was 942 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 32.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.53% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market is weak in a narrow range in the short term.

The domestic cobalt price rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the average domestic cobalt price was 350400 yuan/ton, up 2.97% from 340300 yuan/ton on November 13. This week, domestic cobalt prices rose in shock. The corresponding nickel price fell in shock.

Deviation between nickel price and cobalt price

It can be seen from the comparison chart of nickel price and cobalt price trend that this week’s nickel price trend deviates from cobalt price trend, with nickel price falling in shock and cobalt price rising in shock. Cobalt and nickel are alternative competing elements in ternary batteries. High nickel and low cobalt have always been the future trend of ternary batteries. In 2022, nickel prices will continue to rise, cobalt prices will fall in shock, and the advantages of high nickel and low cobalt ternary batteries will weaken. In addition, in the peak season of the consumer electronics market during the Double 11 Festival, cobalt market demand is high. Recently, cobalt prices will slowly recover and nickel prices will fall in shock.

MB cobalt price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price that MB cobalt price stopped falling and recovered this week. As of November 18, the average price of standard cobalt was 22.575 dollars/pound, up 0.175 dollars/pound from the standard cobalt price of 22.4 dollars/pound on November 14; On November 18, the average price of alloy grade cobalt was US $24.75/lb, which was US $0.125/lb higher than the average price of alloy grade cobalt of US $24.625/lb on November 14. The international cobalt price stopped falling and recovered, and the decline of the cobalt market weakened.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the international cobalt price has stopped falling and recovered this week, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the support for the rise of cobalt price remains; The nickel price remains high, and the advantage of the ternary battery with high nickel and low cobalt is weakened. In addition, during the peak season of the consumer electronics market during the Double 11 Festival, the demand in the cobalt market is relatively high. The support of the cobalt market is increased, and the cobalt price rises slightly.

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot mainstream market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China on November 18 was 12040 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day, down 10.42% year on year.

Industrial factor: According to the monitoring of the business agency, since the price of natural latex fell to the annual lowest point of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, the spot price of natural latex rebounded on the basis of the bottom range and driven by the futures market in November, rising by 4.42% in the first half of the year. In terms of spot goods, the supply side has a strong supply, the spot price of Thai rubber latex has dropped to a new low at the end of the year, the main domestic ports have imported rubber to the port, the inventory has continued to increase, and the spot circulation is abundant. From the demand side, the downstream tire enterprises have great pressure on tire supply, the finished products are stored in warehouses, and the domestic and foreign demand is sluggish. It is naturally difficult for the product enterprises to increase the purchase orders for raw rubber, and it will take time to improve the rubber procurement. Latex prices in Southeast Asian production areas, domestic markets and the US dollar rubber market are still hovering at a low range. Although rubber prices have rebounded, the turnover is relatively light. The market generally expects the supply impact of domestic adhesive tape to be cut off soon.

macroscopic:

On November 17, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. According to the analysis, the signs of economic recession in Europe and the United States are becoming more and more clear, which may lead to a decline in global demand and become the shadow of the oil market for a long time. In the short term, OPEC still plays a leading role in regulating the slow growth of shale oil in the United States. In the later period, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce production, which will support oil prices. At the same time, the EU’s oil ban on Russia is coming into effect, and the expectation of tight supply is still in the short term. In general, the short-term supply and demand game in the oil market is intensified, which will maintain a volatile pattern; Medium to long term or facing downward pressure.

Industry hotspot:

1. According to the latest October report issued by ANRPC, the global gum output in October is expected to increase by 5.1% to 1.435 million tons, 3.2% higher than that of last month; The consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 1.2% to 1.301 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the previous month. According to the report, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points again in early November 2022 to combat inflation, the rise of the economy and borrowing costs may be restrained. It is expected that the global demand for natural rubber will slow down this year, but the global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow.

2. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 73.216 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year on year. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 3.7% over the same period of last year to 71286.7 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association on October 10, China’s auto production and sales reached 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October, down 2.7% and 4% month on month, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles respectively reached 22.242 million and 21.975 million, up 7.9% and 4.6% year on year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to September. In October, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.334 million and 2.231 million, down 3.1% and 4.3% month on month, up 16.9% and 10.7% year on year.

4. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 643000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2022, an increase of 25.6% compared with 512000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to October, China imported 5.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 7.1% compared with 5.475 million tons in the same period of 2021.

Future market forecast: according to the production law of natural rubber, the cutting of domestic full latex will be stopped successively next month. In the short term, it is difficult for natural rubber to rise substantially under the condition of loose spot supply and poor improvement of order demand; In the medium term, natural rubber is about to enter the annual low production area. The market expects that the cessation of cutting of domestic rubber is a very important positive factor for the market. According to the seasonal characteristics, upward price expectations are more common in the future market.