Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 9): 2519 yuan/ton

On November 9, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from that on November 8, with a year-on-year drop of 6.22%. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) is about 1630 yuan/ton, the price drops slightly, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150,000 tons.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2530 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 8, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7500 yuan/ton, which was 366 yuan/ton lower than the reference average price of n-butanol on November 4 before the festival (7866 yuan/ton), a decline of 4.66%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a broad rise under the support of both supply and demand. As of last weekend (November 4), the n-butanol market rose to a high level, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton. On the following 5 and 6 days, the overall market was consolidated at a high level. In this week, the n-butanol market in Shandong started to fall back at a high level, with a cumulative decline of more than 4% over the past two days. As of November 8, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China has been around 7400-7600 yuan/ton, and the price has decreased by 300-500 yuan/ton this week.

The main influencing factor of the high and down trend of the n-butanol market comes from the demand. In this week, the downstream of n-butanol mainly consumes the raw materials in the early inventory, and the overall market demand returns to a stable level. Therefore, compared with the beginning of the month, the demand for n-butanol is less supportive. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the deals are mostly small.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inventory of n-butanol in the plant is relatively controllable, the supply side has relatively stable support for the n-butanol market, and the raw propylene market rebounds at a low level, which also supports the cost side. The fluctuation of the n-butanol market is also a normal fall after the demand side returns to calm. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst of the business community believes that, in the short term, it is expected that, under the condition that the market is still supported in terms of supply and cost, The risk of the n-butanol market continuing to decline significantly is small, and the market will tend to stabilize and consolidate. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on the 7th, with the spot price of 66433.33 yuan/ton, 2.81% higher than the previous trading day and 5.55% lower than the same period last year.

The US unemployment rate recorded 3.7% in October, higher than the expected 3.6%. The rising expectation of the US economic recession restricted the space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, led the US dollar index to fall sharply, and copper prices rebounded sharply after a long period of pressure. Supply side disturbances frequently superimpose geopolitical risks, and the new copper mine output since 2022 is lower than expected. The global exchange copper inventory continued to decline. The domestic refined copper inventory was at a historical low level, and it was difficult to see obvious accumulation in a short time. The supply and demand of refined copper was in a tight state. However, domestic downstream consumption is weak, and Russian copper may turn to our country under the rising voice of European ban on imports, and the supply and demand may be slowing down. In the short term, supported by low inventories, copper prices are expected to rise mainly due to shocks.

1、 Price trend:

In early November, the domestic PA6 market fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and 14166.67 yuan/ton on November 5. The range of increase and decrease within the week was -0.47%, which was -16.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

This week, the PA6 market turned down, and the slice price was generally lowered. Upstream caprolactam market weakened, and PA6 cost side support weakened. At present, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants has been adjusted by a narrow margin, and the overall industrial load is below 70%. The tightening on the supply side is insufficient, the supply side of PA6 is still abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is average. In the early stage, the traditional peak season of “Silver Ten” was not as large as expected, there were many goods on the market, and the slice competition was strong. The high price goods were generally not available. In terms of demand, nylon filament of terminal enterprises started at a high level, while other downstream enterprises were in a fair load position. However, most of them have low enthusiasm for digesting the inventory in the early stage and purchasing, and they tend to be wait-and-see. At present, the operators have no strong confidence in the future market, and the number of traders giving up profits and taking orders has increased.

3、 Future market forecast:

This week, the spot price of PA6 fell, the market of caprolactam became weaker, and the cost support of PA6 was not strong. The demand is relatively lagging behind, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is heavy. At present, the market guidance is empty, and it is expected that the market of PA6 will be weak in the short term.

From October 27, 2022 to November 3, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China will be lowered. Last weekend, the price was 78750 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 77750 yuan/ton, down 1.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot market has been on the up trend in the near future around the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after the middle of March, and entered a downward channel in the middle of April. The decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend was stable in May. The price entered an upward channel in June. After a short period of stability in July, it fell again. After August, the market was gradually stable, flat for seven consecutive weeks, and declined at the end of October.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD/t)

Variety, October 27, November 3, up and down

European small metal antimony., 11900., 11700., – 200

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe remained stable for the time being. As of November 3, the price was $11700/ton, with a weekly drop of $200/ton. Recently, the market transaction was relatively cold and limited.

The price of antimony ingots continued its downward trend at the end of October this week, and finally broke the weak balance at the end of October after the price of antimony ingots remained stable for seven weeks. This round of decline is still driven by demand. In the near future, the downstream antimony oxide has a poor performance. The main application of antimony in the downstream is the flame retardant industry, accounting for about 60%. The overall demand of the flame retardant market in the near future is poor, which adversely affects the sales of antimony oxide. The poor sales of antimony dioxide will further affect the production of antimony ingots. In terms of supply and demand, the overall change in the near future is not big. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, downstream enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement. In terms of supply, the output in October has not changed much since the domestic large factories resumed production in September. As the external antimony ingot price continues to decline slightly, market participants generally believe that the possibility of antimony ingot price declining is growing. The business community expects that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market will remain stable and weak under the condition that the downstream demand will not improve in the near future.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, October 27, November 3, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 67000., 65500., – 1500

99.8% antimony trioxide, 69000., 67500., – 1500

The domestic antimony oxide market price was weak this week, the sales of antimony oxide remained weak, and the downstream market was short of gas. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future, and the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see.