At the beginning of the month, the information on the floor was very limited. The domestic MIBK market was adjusted and operated. The floor demand was generally flat, and the negotiation reference was 10200-10400 yuan / ton. Today, the acetone market at the raw material end is strong. The two major factories in East China raised 100 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton, and the negotiated value of the whole East China market is 4900 yuan / ton. Domestic factories may have maintenance plans in August, because despite the high level in Hong Kong, it is expected that the supply chain will decrease in August, and the raw material propanone market will be strong in August. However, the strength of the raw material end has not affected the downstream MIBK market, mainly due to the lack of terminal orders and the steady progress of the cargo carriers. In fact, Xu paid attention to the actual order negotiation in the field.

There is no pressure on enterprise inventory for the time being, orders are dominant, and the circulation volume of intermediate trade is limited. The shippers offer steadily, and the downstream just needs to follow up. The short-term MIBK market operates in shock, and the negotiation reference is 10200-10300 yuan / ton.

441 * silicon price trend

As of July 29, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of 441 × metal silicon in China was 17990 yuan / ton, down 0.72% from last week. Metallic silicon showed signs of declining this week. Although the quotations of some silicon factories remained firm, the prices of metallurgical grade silicon were loosened and lowered under the pressure of downstream aluminum alloy users.

On the 22nd, the prices of 441# silicon in various regions are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 17900-18100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 17900-18100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 17700-17800 yuan / ton, with an average of 17750 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 17500-17700 yuan / ton, with an average of 17600 yuan / ton; Shanghai #441 metal silicon price range is 18500-18700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18600 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Supply side

At present, the production cost of silicon plant is high, the contradiction between power supply is prominent, and the electricity price is higher than that in previous years. At the same time, the price of silicon coal and electrode remains high. The price of silicon coal is about 2100 yuan / ton, and the price of electrode is about 16000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the cost side support of metal silicon is strong.

Demand side

The price of organosilicon DMC fell weakly, with the mainstream price falling by 20000 yuan / ton, the price of aluminum alloy falling by 800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of 17000 yuan / ton. The overall order shortage of the two downstream products led to the reduction of enterprise profits and the weakening of operating rate, thus suppressing the price of metal silicon.

The market price of polysilicon is 278333.34 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The future production capacity has been basically realized on the silicon price.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of silicon is obviously supported by the cost side, and the willingness of silicon manufacturers to support the price is also strong. However, the poor performance of downstream aluminum alloy and silicone has led to weak demand for metallic silicon, and there are serious differences between upstream and downstream. It is expected that the trend of returning home in the short term will show a game situation.

On July 28, the rare earth index was 760 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 180.44% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, and the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 12500 yuan / ton to 985000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 7500 yuan / ton to 820000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1065000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1155000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 860000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide was 13.85 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.5 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 2.315 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 3.08 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 2.31 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, traders were still active, metal factories were cautious and just needed to follow up, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell slightly, the price trend of terbium series was temporarily stable, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar banned exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will decline slightly in the later period.

On July 27, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 190500-193500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 192000 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the 26th, most LME London metals rose, only London tin and London nickel fell, of which London tin fell 0.69%. The domestic metal market generally fell at night, with Shanghai tin falling more than 1%. In terms of inventory, the latest data of London tin inventory on the 26th was 3670 tons, a new high in the past year, dragging down London tin.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. In terms of the market, the delivery of the contract in the spot market this week has been completed, the overall performance of the market supply is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is general, and most of the goods are shipped at a discount. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

On July 26, the rare earth index was 769 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 23.63% from the peak of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 183.76% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium rose. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium rose by 12500 yuan / ton to 997500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 827500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 870000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1090000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide rose by 50000 yuan / ton to 13.8 million yuan / ton, The price of metal terbium rose by 50000 yuan / ton to 17.5 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.33 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.11 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.31 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price rose slightly, and the activity of traders increased. Metal factories were cautious and just needed to follow up. The price trend of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market was temporarily stable, the price of terbium was higher, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar banned exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will rise slightly in the later period.