On July 18, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17325 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. The inventory of major factories is not under pressure, the mentality of supporting the market is dominated, the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market is general, a small number of just need to follow up, the shippers make profits to negotiate shipping, the atmosphere of on-site trading is still light, and the mentality of the operators is mainly stalemate and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16900-17400 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be weak and the price range will fluctuate. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on July 15 was 96.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.66% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 16.15% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (July 11-16), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in China is about 15757.14 yuan / ton. The production of the main manufacturer is normal, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell weakly this week. As of July 15, the price of acrylonitrile was 10580 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 10700 yuan / ton last Friday. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at a low price. At present, the cost pressure of supply area restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: on July 15, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.88% from Monday’s price and 24.35% from June 15. Recently, the raw material propylene market is mainly consolidated, the cost side support is general, and the acrylic acid operating rate is lower than that in the early stage, but the market support is limited, mainly because the demand side performance is light, the transaction is just needed, the downstream procurement is cautious and low-cost procurement is mainly, the market mentality is insufficient, and the acrylic acid market is under pressure. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream trends.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price continued to rise this week. The average domestic LNG price was 5766 yuan / ton on July 11 and 5798 yuan / ton on July 15. Domestic LNG prices rose 0.55% this week. Recently, the number of overhaul liquid plants has increased, and the trend of LNG market is stable and positive. However, the market demand is weak, waiting for the release of terminal demand. It is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will remain stable and the consolidation operation will prevail.

Aftermarket forecast: this week, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, cost support weakened, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the market mentality was bearish, and the transaction was general. It is expected that the aftermarket polyacrylamide market will not change much, and there is a great possibility of stability and weakness.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 14, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5383 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton lower than that on July 10, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5516 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.42%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business agency that this week, the domestic diethylene glycol market as a whole showed a downward trend. At the beginning of this week, the domestic diethylene glycol market as a whole was strong and stable, with low port inventory and good delivery supporting the industry’s mentality. On the 13th, affected by the wide fall of international crude oil, the industry’s mentality was suppressed, and port shipments decreased. Diethylene glycol inventory increased narrowly, and the market price of diethylene glycol fell, with a reduction of 200-300 yuan / ton. As of July 14, the market price of diethylene glycol is around 5300-5400 yuan / ton. At present, the wait-and-see mood in the diethylene glycol market is heavy, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is general.

At present, the inventory of diethylene glycol in the two reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang is about 50000 tons. Compared with last week, the shipment volume this week has decreased as a whole, and the downstream demand is more cautious. The diethylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market is weak, mainly finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the trend of international crude oil and inventory changes.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of spot rubber in the domestic natural rubber market on July 13 fell by about 470 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the offer price was reduced by about 400-500 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12300 yuan / ton, down about 3.42% from the quotation of the previous trading day, and down 4.65% year-on-year.

Industry focus: macro: on the evening of July 12, the international oil price collectively fell by more than 6%. Brent crude oil futures fell below the key psychological integer of $100 / barrel within one hour of the opening of U.S. stocks. The WTI of U.S. oil fell as low as $97 / barrel. In the early morning, the decline of U.S. oil expanded to 8%; In the night trading of domestic futures, the main contracts almost fell across the board, of which the main rubber contract ru220 fell sharply to about 12300, and the opening of the 13th continued to fall sharply, as low as about 12035. Supply and demand: in the peak season of rubber production at home and abroad, the output increases rapidly. Domestic spot rubber ushered in the stock accumulation cycle, and the inventory delivered in the previous period showed an upward trend. The downstream demand is weak, and the rubber price continues to be weak.

Aftermarket forecast: under the background of superimposed demand list in the peak season of rubber production and certain inventory pressure, downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing, and the aftermarket natural rubber market is expected to continue to be weak.

On July 12, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17475 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day, and the market was temporarily stable. At present, the supplier’s inventory is not under pressure, and the market mentality is dominated. The offer of the goods holder is temporarily stable, and the shipment is negotiated. The downstream market entry continues to just need to be followed up. The business mentality is deadlocked and wait-and-see, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17400-17800 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market consolidation will be the main operation, and the price may fluctuate slightly. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.