According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China was 2773.33 yuan / ton on the 11th, down 12.42% from the previous working day. Shandong refinery enterprises sharply reduced their quotations over the weekend, followed by individual refineries on Monday, with sulfur down 490-600 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid market is weak, the demand for sulfur is limited, the shipment of enterprises is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and there are low-cost sources in the market, resulting in increased resistance to the sale of refineries, and the quotation of enterprises falls again and again. However, the price of crude oil at the raw material end falls, which is indirectly bad for the sulfur market. Considering all factors, the sulfur support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and the price will continue to decline, Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data on the bulk list of business society. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from last week and 17.65% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: affected by the sharp decline in crude oil during the week, bulk commodities collectively weakened; Pure benzene in Asia fell continuously, with bad external news; Coupled with general domestic buying, the price of pure benzene fell. On Friday (July 8), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9550 yuan / ton (the average price was 9267 yuan / ton), which was 2.54% lower than last week and 7.38% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid fell this week. The domestic production price of nitric acid was 2950 yuan / ton on July 1 and 2917 yuan / ton on July 8. The price was 1.13% higher than that of last week and 21.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

The downstream demand follows up generally, and the rubber additives industry has entered the traditional off-season, and the demand is relatively weak compared with the previous period. However, due to the decrease in shutdown of some aniline plants, the operating rate decreased significantly, the factory inventory remained at a normal level, and the high cost price, the support remained, and aniline rose slightly during the week.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

On the cost side, in terms of pure benzene, the decline in the price of pure benzene drives the increase of downstream buying gas, and it is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will fluctuate.

In terms of nitric acid, the raw material market is weak, and the downstream products rise and fall, and nitric acid is expected to be weak, mainly finishing.

At present, the cost side and the spot supply of aniline reduce to support the price. If the downstream demand is stable, it is expected to continue the sideways consolidation in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

Price trend

On the 7th, the mainstream quotation of vitamin C food grade was 30-34 yuan / kg, and the mainstream quotation of feed grade was 28-32 yuan / kg. The price of raw corn is high, but the demand is insufficient. The peak maintenance season is coming, and the production and sales are weak. For the time being, there is no obvious good news, so the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

On the 7th, the price of vitamin A fell slightly. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A was 120-130 yuan / kg, and the European market quotation was 51-55 euros / kg. The peak maintenance season is concentrated in mid July, when the supply will be tightened, which may boost the vitamin a market to a certain extent.

On the 7th, the price of vitamin E fell, and the quotation of feed grade vitamin E was around 80-85 yuan / kg. The European market quotation is 9.4-9.9 euros / kg. The maintenance of vitamin E device of domestic production enterprises began in mid July. At the same time, the export market returned to normal. It is expected that the price of vitamin E will be strong.

Aftermarket forecast

Vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business community believe that: on the whole, the overall market of vitamins is weak, and the future market will pay close attention to the status of enterprises’ opening and parking and the delivery of goods.

On July 6, the average market price of TDI in East China decreased by 0.14% compared with the previous working day, and the market was weak. The factory’s spot is tight, with a strong market mentality. The downstream terminals are in the traditional off-season, and the demand is weak. The cargo holders negotiate to ship at a profit, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17400-17800 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be in a stalemate, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On July 5, the rare earth index was 838 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 16.78% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 209.23% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, and the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.125 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 917500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.18 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1.23 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.48 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.22 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.445 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price has declined slightly, and the recent procurement is general. The price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market has declined, the price of terbium series has fallen, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar has banned exports, and it is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will decline slightly in the later period.