One of the main reasons for the narrow rise in the domestic aggregate MDI market is the serious restrictions on logistics and transportation, traffic congestion at the expressway and soaring logistics and transportation costs. On the other hand, the supply of spot goods in some regions is tight, especially in East China, and the quotations of mainstream traders are gradually rising.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from March 25 to April 2, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18950 yuan / ton to 19550 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.17% during the week, a month on month decrease of 4.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of April 2:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 19500-19600 yuan / ton, 19300-19500 yuan / ton

East China, RMB 19500-19700 / ton, 19300-19500 yuan / ton

South China, 19500-19700 yuan / ton, 19400-19500 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of April 2:

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic overhaul season of pure benzene is coming, and the import is expected to have less impact. The fundamentals of domestic pure benzene are good. Even if the tracking crude oil price falls, the decline is expected to be small.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: domestic aniline maintains the consolidation pattern. The amount of aniline is less. The supply side changes little, the demand side is subject to force majeure factors such as traffic control, and the terminal profit transmission is poor.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; 600000 tons / year normal operation of Shanghai Kechuang unit; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally and has a maintenance plan in May; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 1st, the average nickel market price was 224283.33 yuan / ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day and 82.72% year-on-year.

European stocks fell and risk aversion increased, with Lun Ni closing down 1.46% overnight; Under the sealed control of the domestic epidemic, the logistics of some cities was blocked, the profits of downstream consumers shrank, and the spot transaction was poor. Recently, the epidemic prevention and control measures in Shanghai have been strengthened, the refined nickel trade and logistics storage have been greatly affected, the transactions in the spot market are cold, the downstream is difficult to accept the current high price, and the downstream has suffered a large loss. Recently, affected by the Lun nickel capital game, the nickel price fluctuates greatly, and the current price is still out of the scope of supply and demand and in an irrational state. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a wide range of shocks.

Zinc price rose on March 31

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on March 31 and the zinc market recovered. On March 31, the price of zinc was 26722 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from 26598 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 22.77% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The demand of zinc ingot spot market decreased, the commencement of downstream galvanizing enterprises decreased, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected; The crisis between Russia and Ukraine continued, the high level of natural gas was adjusted, the smelting cost of European zinc smelters was adjusted, the output of zinc ingots was expected to decrease, the high level of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market decreased, and the overall supply of zinc market decreased.

Future forecast

Both supply and demand are weak, and the zinc price fluctuates and adjusts; In the future, the supply decreases and the demand recovers slowly. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Aluminum prices fell slightly on the 30th

According to the data of business agency, on March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22740 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, a year-on-year increase of 31.07%, an increase of 0.80% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.63%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.19% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.65% recently.

Fundamentals

On the whole, the energy price in Europe is at a high level, and the expectation of overseas aluminum ingot production reduction still exists. Recently, affected by public health events in China, the downstream operating rate has been affected, the downstream consumption just needs to recover seasonally, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, strips and foils has rebounded. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly. Recently, Yunnan Aluminum announced that the 700000 ton hydropower aluminum production capacity has been fully completed, and the output will be released in succession.

Future forecast

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long and short game, the upward space will narrow and the stable and volatile operation will prevail.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 29): 25166.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable on March 29, flat compared with the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 23.16%. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable, the cost is under pressure, the demand of the car market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events and poor logistics, manufacturers are eager to clear goods, the price is reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is light. Up to now, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-26000 yuan / ton.

R134a market is expected to have further downside risks in the short term.