1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 14th, the nickel price continued to fall, and the spot price was reported as 223416.67 yuan / ton, down 3.26% from the previous trading day and up 82.01% year-on-year.

The abnormal fluctuation of Lun nickel was questioned, which seriously deviated from the fundamentals, and LME nickel still stopped trading without reporting. The market is waiting for prices to return to rationality. For China, the domestic nickel supply is at a normal level, and has not been disturbed by overseas epidemics and geographical factors. From the perspective of the circulation of pure nickel resources, even if China raises 200000 tons of deliverable inventory, it will seriously disrupt the balance of domestic supply and demand in a short time. At present, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are basically in a semi stagnant state. Before the LME nickel incident is effectively resolved, the short-term nickel price is expected to be mainly short.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose sharply this week. On March 11, the quotation of sulfur was 2783.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 2400 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it increased by 15.97% during the week and 3.44% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market is rising strongly, the port supply is tight, the price market continues to rise, the spot on the site is difficult to find, which is good for domestic refineries. There is no inventory pressure for regional refineries. The downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the market demand is stable, the enterprise shipment is smooth, and the supply is in short supply. The operators are positive, have strong intention of rising, and the quotation rises sharply within the week, The price of solid-liquid sulfur is generally raised between 200-4000 yuan / ton. As of March 11, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

Area varieties. March 5th . March 11 Rise and fall

East China . Sulfur (particle) . 2410-2500 yuan / ton . 2770-2850 yuan / ton . 350-360

North China . Sulfur (particle) . 2160-2340 yuan / ton . 2480-2690 yuan / ton . 320-350

Shandong region . Sulfur (particle) . 2350 yuan / ton 2750 yuan / ton . four hundred

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market was consolidated at a high level, and the atmosphere of ammonium market continued to rise on Monday. The enterprise has sufficient waiting volume and good demand, and the manufacturer’s quotation was increased. The market of diammonium was sorted out and operated within the week. The enterprise mainly issued early orders, and the downstream spring ploughing and fertilizer storage came to an end gradually. It was mainly purchased on demand, and the price decreased slightly within the week. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market of ammonium phosphate will wait and see.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries is not under pressure, the support of downstream market is good, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, driven by the rise of port market, the future sulfur market may continue to operate at a high level, and pay attention to the market follow-up

On March 10, the rare earth index was 986 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 2.09% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 263.84% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index declined, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series fell. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.07 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.345 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.08 million yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 1.17 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium was 1.39 million yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.44 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 3.06 million yuan / ton, dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 3.06 million yuan / ton, dysprosium metal price was 3.975 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, the recent procurement was general, the price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the price of terbium series fell, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, Myanmar banned exports, and the price of rare earth in the domestic market is expected to decline slightly in the later period.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (March 9): 2783.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the sulfur price in East China increased by 15.97% compared with a single day yesterday. Today, the sulfur market is operating at a high level, and individual domestic refineries follow up. The price adjustment range is generally 200-350 yuan / ton, and the sulfur market is operating strongly. The reason for the sharp rise is mainly due to the high level of the port market. It is difficult to find the supply of goods in the port. The cargo holders are reluctant to sell, and have a strong intention to rise. The mentality of domestic refineries is positive. Coupled with the steady progress of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the price of solid-liquid sulfur runs at a high level.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term sulfur market is relatively strong, so we should pay more attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6400 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 rose on March 8, up 0.79% compared with the previous trading day. Europe and the United States banned the import of Russian crude oil, and the international oil price rose again. Today, the price of raw liquid wax increased, and may continue to rise in the short term. At present, the market is at a high level. With the support of raw materials, chlorinated paraffin enterprises are under great pressure, and the price will be raised accordingly. At present, the inventory of chlorinated paraffin is low and the supply and demand are balanced. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 6200 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 6200 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui is about 6500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to rise in the short term.