Trade name: TDI

Latest price (February 28): 19225 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.65% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. At present, there is little change in the start-up of TDI plants in China, and the spot market continues to be tight, but the export of end products is less than expected, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, a small number of just need to buy, the offer of cargo holders is loose in a narrow range, and the quotation of individual traders is reduced in order to maintain the shipment. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19000-19400 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

During the week, the acetone market rose and fell, and the overall focus fell slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream offer in East China was 5750 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, in the East China market, the mainstream offer in East China was 5880 yuan / ton on February 18 and 5750 yuan / ton on February 25, with an overall decline of 2.21% during the week. As of February 25, the negotiation in East China was 5750 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5950 yuan / ton, the offer around Yanshan was 5950 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5900 yuan / ton.

This week, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units increased to 90%, the billing of petrochemical enterprises was stable, while the port inventory was 40000 tons and the source of imported goods was on the high side. However, under the supply pressure, the market fell sharply and the terminal demand was poor. Although the operation of terminal factories increased, there was no intention to purchase large orders. The market just needed to follow up, so it was difficult to make a big change.

On the raw material side, from the perspective of crude oil, crude oil continued to rise sharply this week, which had a positive impact on downstream products. The decline slowed down under the support of downstream products, and there was a rebound of about 50 yuan / ton near the weekend.

After the domestic propylene price of raw material propylene experienced another decline, the market began to stop falling and rebound, in which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8050-8100 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of crude oil continued to rise and the cost pressure increased; On the other hand, the downstream returned to normal, the terminal procurement continued to follow up, and the price rose with the trend. In the short-term future, propylene prices are likely to rise slightly.

The spot resources of bisphenol A are limited, but the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have fallen one after another, which is bad for the bisphenol a market. During the week, the factory has decreased and the auction has decreased significantly. Up to now, the market offer is 17500-17550 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business agency, the acetone market fluctuates in a narrow range at the beginning of next week, and the negotiated price in East China market is 5700-5800 yuan / ton.

Commodity price: according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on February 24, 2022 was 2348.75 yuan / ton, down 1.57% from the mainstream quotation of 2386.25 yuan / ton on February 23.

Key points of analysis: at present, with the downstream gradually entering the normal state, the procurement volume is gradually recovering, but the procurement volume has not been increased on a large scale; The manufacturer has sufficient inventory, the recent transaction is weak, and the prices of some enterprises have been reduced slightly. After the spring holiday, the domestic market of raw hydrochloric acid fell slightly, mainly stable and weak.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream procurement has not been started on a large scale, and the market inventory is sufficient. In the case of weak demand and raw material prices, the price of polyaluminium chloride is flat and may last for some time.

Monitoring shows that on February 23, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly. The opening price of the main contract was 14030 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 14030 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14100 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13975 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 140150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 133200 and the trading volume is 135200. The spot quotation is adjusted with the offer, and the adjustment range is within 100 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13210 yuan / ton, which was little changed compared with the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the current natural rubber supply is about to be in the lowest valley of the year, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, but China has not yet cut it; On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period.

Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. The market generally expects that under the background of the continuous recovery of downstream demand in the low period of annual supply, the natural shock is expected to be supported in the medium term, but in the short term, the weak trend may last for some time.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (February 22): 19350 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.90% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. There is little change in the start-up of domestic TDI plant devices, and the spot market is tight, but the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high. The market entry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The offer of the cargo holder is loose in a narrow range, and the quotation of individual traders is reduced in order to maintain the shipment. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19400-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.