1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On January 14, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7650 yuan / ton (the average price was 7530 yuan / ton), and on Friday (January 21), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (the average price was 7680 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, or 1.99%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.67%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, related commodities rose, market negotiation enthusiasm was good, and pure benzene prices rose. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, which also gave positive support to the market. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream pre festival goods preparation is basically over, and the buying is reduced; The operators sold at a profit, the selling price increased, and the high price of pure benzene fell.

In terms of external trading, the Asian pure benzene range fluctuated in the external trading this week. On Thursday (January 20), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $998 / T, up US $2 / T or 0.2% month on month (MOM) compared with January 13; The reference import price in East China was US $1030 / T, up US $10 / T or 0.98% month on month on January 13.

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and strong demand, and the prospect of market demand for crude oil is better. Superimposed on the tightening of geographical situation, the international oil price has continued to rise this week. Near the weekend, investors took profits and oil prices fell. As of January 21, Brent rose $1.83 / barrel, or 2.13%; WTI rose $1.32/barrel, or 1.57%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose first and then fell this week. The price of styrene was 8680 yuan / ton on January 14 and 8740 yuan / ton on January 21, an increase of 0.69% over last week and 24.9% over the same period last year. The weekly average operating rate of the domestic styrene industry this week was 82.51%, the same as last week. In terms of port inventory, East China port inventory entered the rhythm of accumulation this week, and styrene processing profit suffered a small loss.

Aniline: aniline stabilized after rising this week. On January 14, the price in Shandong was 11000-11220 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On January 21, the price in Shandong was 11600-11820 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation of weak supply and strong demand for crude oil continues, and the demand outlook is generally good. The short-term trend of crude oil is strong, which provides good support for relevant bulk commodities. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: crude oil is strong, but the subsequent deposit correction may be possible. Pure benzene has been corrected at present, and the bottom of styrene cost side support has been reduced. In addition, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the stock sentiment of downstream factories has weakened, and the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week.

Approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the pure benzene negotiation turns light. Crude oil is expected to continue high-level operation and support pure benzene well. Overall, it is expected that the horizontal consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week, and there may be a downward trend, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the downstream market, plant dynamics, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (January 20): 12533 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 12533 yuan / ton on Thursday, rebounding slightly by 0.53% compared with the previous day. The start-up of the downstream tire and rubber and plastic products industry is lower than that in the early stage, and the demand side is weak, but the preparation before the festival continues; Styrene butadiene rubber plant starts normally and the supply surface is sufficient; Although the raw materials butadiene and styrene have rebounded slightly recently, the cost has increased; In addition, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises has increased recently, and the market offer of styrene butadiene rubber has risen. According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream offer of domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was around 12400 ~ 12800 yuan / ton on the 20th.

Future forecast: it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate in a narrow range before the Spring Festival.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price January 19: 32250 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on January 19, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was upward. The market price of yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded. Manufacturers send more orders in the early stage, the spot is slightly tight, and the downstream prepares goods years ago, with more inquiries. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term, but the range is limited.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (January 18): 5900 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market was sorted and operated. The average market price in East China was reduced by 40 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, down 0.67%. The domestic market continued to be weak, the domestic acetic acid enterprises started at a high level, the market supply performance was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the just need was the main, and the new orders in the market were insufficient, resulting in the accumulation of enterprise inventory, the acid enterprises passively competed for shipment, the focus of negotiation shifted downward, and the operators on the floor were bearish about the future market mentality.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

1、 Price data

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7630.75 yuan / ton, up 3.88% from 7345.75 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7602.50 yuan / ton, up 6.18% from 7602.50 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

On January 16, the naphtha commodity index was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.86% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.96% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the price of refined naphtha has risen, the trading is light, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the manufacturers actively push up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rises. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and America is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rises; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5580.40 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 5930.20 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.27%. The price of mixed xylene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5860.00 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 6290.00 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.34%. The market price of p-xylene increased by 6700.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 6900.00 yuan / ton on January 16, with a price increase of 2.99%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.