In November, the domestic methanol market fell unilaterally, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of November and 2692 yuan / ton at the end of November. The price decreased by 14.72% and increased by 27.58% year-on-year.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 10 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.
Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society in 2017-2021:
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of November 27:
Region, price
Qinghai region 3500 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Shanxi region 2640-2670 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Liaoning region 2720-2750 yuan / ton
Fujian region RMB 2850-2900 yuan / ton, cash out of warehouse nearby
Lianghu area The actual ex factory reference is 2700-2750 yuan / ton, and the factory withdraws cash exchange
Anhui region 2850-2880 yuan / ton factory acceptance
Henan region 2845-2850 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
At the beginning of the month, the methanol market continued to decline, mainly due to the low price of raw coal affected by policies. Although the coal price has stopped falling, the policy pricing is still, and the coal price is low. The news that some MTO devices are planned to restart this week has not been fulfilled, the positive expectations have been dashed, and the mentality of some operators is lack of support, while the traditional downstream demand enterprises are just focusing on demand, and there is no obvious large-scale situation. Methanol market fell significantly.
In mid June, the methanol market was low, mainly due to the weak macro level, the decline of international oil price, more methanol restart devices and the increase of inventory in the mainland and ports. Poor macro sentiment dragged the market down further. Under the background of general shipments, the main production areas in the mainland made a second adjustment with the breaking of futures, but it was still difficult to make large-scale transactions except for the just needed supplement; The downstream inventory in the mainland’s main sales area has fallen to the low point of the year, and the freight has also increased due to the weather, but it is slightly insufficient to support the market price.
In late June, the methanol market fell deeply. Due to the decline of coal price and the weakening of methanol cost support, Baofeng and other olefin enterprises sold methanol away, and some methanol units were restored, the supply side was abundant. In the middle of the week, the quotations of major manufacturers were successively reduced, and the price adjustment range was 100-200 yuan / ton, resulting in the continued downward price focus of the domestic methanol market, difficult transaction volume and cautious market mentality.
At the end of the month, the domestic methanol atmosphere improved and the price rebounded in a narrow range. The main production areas in the mainland delivered better at the beginning of the week. Although Guanzhong was relatively weak in the northwest, it soon turned better under the operation of Pucheng olefin export. Appropriate replenishment by downstream enterprises and expected stimulation from the recovery of olefin units such as Zhejiang Xingxing.
Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:
Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:
In terms of industrial chain, the coal price of methanol upstream products fluctuates in a narrow range, and the domestic LNG market fluctuates downward, but the price fluctuation is small, with an adjustment range of about 1%, which has weak support for the cost of methanol. In downstream products, the market price of dimethyl ether fluctuates in a narrow range; Formaldehyde market low finishing; Acetic acid market rose first and then fell, with an overall narrow range.
In terms of external market, as of the closing on November 25, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $452.50-453.50/ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 127.50-128.50 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 369.00-370.00 euros / ton, up 0.5 euros / ton.
region ., Country, closing price, up and down
Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 452.50-453.50/ton USD 0 / ton
Europe and America American Gulf 127.50-128.50 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon
Europe FOB Rotterdam 368.50-369.50 euros / ton 0 euro / ton
In the future, in terms of cost, the supply has increased under the policy of ensuring supply and increasing production in the main producing area, and the growth rate is fast. Most coal mines mainly guarantee power supply coal. Coal mines actively respond to price reduction and sales, and the replenishment of storage in the downstream has temporarily come to an end. The inventory is high, and the coal price may weaken steadily in the near future. The macro level may continue to be weak, and the support of power coal to methanol cost may be weakened. In terms of fundamentals, the marginal supply decreases and the demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term.
