According to the data of business agency, as of December 31, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5240.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.35% from 5170.00 yuan / ton on December 27.

On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.65% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 130.32% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of December 31, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5350 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5450 yuan / ton; The quotation of low sulfur for 180 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low sulfur for 120 CST fuel oil is 5450 yuan / ton.

The rise in international crude oil prices this week has led to the rapid spread of Omicron mutant virus, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of December 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1371000 barrels to a two-and-a-half month low of 19564000 barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 517000 barrels to a five week low of 11.505 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 26000 barrels to a three week low of 7.896 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rising international crude oil price and the high cost price in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market, but the terminal demand is general, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the transaction is light, and the purchase is just needed. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

According to the monitoring data, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China has increased slightly recently (December 28-31): the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on December 28 is 2495.56 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on December 29-31 is about 2500-2502 yuan / ton, which is almost stable. Recently, crude oil continued to rise, raw material costs fluctuated slightly, some enterprises stopped work years ago, market demand was weak and transactions were general.

Raw material: hydrochloric acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the market price of hydrochloric acid in China fluctuated slightly in a single day (December 28-23). The mainstream quotation was 320 yuan / ton on the 28th and 318 yuan / ton on the 31st, down 0.62%. From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1095.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.41%; The white carbon black market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Hydrochloric acid has mainly decreased slightly recently.

As for the future market, compared with the trend in recent years, it is more likely that the future market is stable and weak. Recently, crude oil continues to rise, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, market support is weak, downstream demand is weak, and the trend of polyaluminium chloride is weak; In the macro weak environment, it is expected that there will be little action in the polyaluminium chloride Market in the short term, so beware of the downside risk of chemical raw materials.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 30): 8320 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8320 yuan / ton on December 30, down 0.24% from the previous day. The offer of cargo holders was lowered. Near New Year’s day, the downstream demand decreased. Most enterprises mainly ship goods, and there is room for negotiation. At present, most domestic ex factory prices are about 8150-8500 yuan / ton, and the price of raw calcium carbide is not 4600-4650 yuan / ton, In the off-season of demand, PVC continued its weak trend.

Forecast: PVC market fell slightly.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 27): 10500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 29, the phosphoric acid market maintained a weak and stable operation. Towards the end of the year, the downstream purchasing mood was not high, the wait-and-see attitude remained, and the just needed replenishment continued. The market trading was not warm and the raw material price decreased. The offer of some phosphoric acid enterprises decreased accordingly. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is about 41750 yuan / ton, The market price of phosphoric acid is mostly in the range of 9500-13500 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may decrease slightly with the cost in the short term.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

On the 28th, 441# metal silicon prices fell again. The average price in the domestic market was 21460 yuan / ton, and the silicon price basically hit the bottom. Due to the rise of electricity price in Yunnan, some enterprises shut down for maintenance. The quotation of downstream silicone rose slightly. Towards the end of the year, the sentiment of covering positions in the downstream increased significantly. However, at present, the overall inventory in the market is large and the downstream price depression mentality is strong. The price of aluminum alloy fell further, the procurement demand for raw materials was weak, and the demand support for metal silicon was weak.

Future forecast

Overall, the price of metal silicon is still stable in the short term.