Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (September 26): 12833 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on September 26, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 2067 yuan / ton, a decrease of 16.67%. The downstream plant of n-butanol started at low load, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly. Near the national day, the downstream goods preparation performance was flat. The n-butanol plant sold goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was greatly reduced.

Future forecast: before the festival, the downstream goods preparation of n-butanol is mainly cautious, and it is unlikely to increase the operating rate of downstream devices before the festival. It is expected that the n-butanol market will mainly maintain stable operation in the days before the festival.

On September 24, the domestic cobalt price rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on September 24, the domestic cobalt market continued to rise, the cobalt price rose, and the domestic cobalt market rose. On September 24, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from 378600.00 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (September 23).

Summary of cobalt Market

In the international market, the international cobalt price has risen continuously; In the domestic market, during the Mid Autumn Festival, spot trading in the domestic cobalt Market stagnated. Affected by the dual control of energy, some enterprises are expected to stop production and resume work after the national day, which exacerbated the shortage of electrolytic cobalt supply and raised the quotation of electrolytic cobalt. Overall, the rising momentum of cobalt market is strong, which stimulates the rise of domestic cobalt market.

Over the past 21 years, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, and the cost of raw materials for lithium batteries has increased sharply. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of battery has increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. At present, new energy vehicle enterprises are expanding market share, and most of them will not choose to increase the price to affect sales. At present, vehicle enterprises mostly lower the price of battery enterprises, and basically do not accept the battery price increase to ensure their own profits, with little impact. Since this year, the cost pressure of battery enterprises has increased sharply, and it is difficult to conduct downward. Battery enterprises have poor acceptance of high priced raw materials, downstream enterprises have great resistance to the rise of cobalt price, and there is great downward pressure on cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent rise in international cobalt prices, the decline in domestic cobalt Market Construction and the insufficient supply of cobalt market have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices. However, in the long run, downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high price cobalt, and the rising support of cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the shock will stabilize after the slight rise of cobalt price in the future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably on September 23. The average market price in East China was 14300 yuan / ton, down 3.21% month on month.

On September 23, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13600-14000 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 13900-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. There is no inventory pressure due to the equipment maintenance of many TDI factories in China. Under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream demand is general, the transaction at the downstream of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see, the market outlook is sorted and operated, and the downstream follow-up is concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride increased slightly this week. As of September 19, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 13333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50% over the average price of 13266.67 yuan / ton on September 13, and an increase of 13.96% over the same period last month.

On September 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 125.60, the same as yesterday, down 0.50% from the highest point of 126.23 in the cycle (2021-09-17), and up 145.41% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline this week. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable, and the resin market just needs to be purchased. As of the 19th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 12800 yuan / ton, liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 13200 yuan / ton, solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 13400 yuan / ton, solid anhydride in Hebei was about 13300 yuan / ton, and solid anhydride in South China was about 13600 yuan / ton.

Upstream, pure benzene fell after rising this week. The average price of pure benzene was 8080 yuan / ton on September 12 and 8360 yuan / ton on September 19, an increase of 280 yuan / ton or 3.67% over last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 8025 yuan / ton last weekend to 8775 yuan / ton this weekend, up 750 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 5300 yuan / ton as of September 18.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 37th week of 2021 (9.13-9.17), there were 61 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 19.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (73.91%), dichloromethane (56.84%) and phosphoric acid (41.76%). A total of 15 commodities fell month on month, and 2 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 2% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butadiene (- 9.24%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 5.44%) and boric acid (- 3.83%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.62%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that the rise of maleic anhydride slowed down before the festival. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories are pre sold, there is no inventory pressure in the factories, the supply and demand is good, the price of raw materials is rising, and the cost of maleic anhydride market is supported. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. On September 12, the price of mixed xylene was 5710 yuan / ton; On Sunday (September 19), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, up 1.58% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.92%.

2、 Analysis and review

Driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products, mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. The price of gasoline blending rose, and the market trend of downstream terminals was strong; The overall trend of raw crude oil is upward, the market guidance is good, the market is bullish, and the price support psychology is not reduced. The port inventory of mixed xylene decreased this week.

In terms of external market, as of September 17, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $772.5/t, up US $10 / T or 1.31% month on month compared with September 10; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 795 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton or 1.53% month on month on September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream, in the PX market, in the PX market, the domestic PX trend was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, up 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose broadly this week and fell slightly near the weekend. On Friday (September 17), the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from last week and 40.6% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of orthobenzene rose this week. On Friday (September 17), the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from last week and 47.73% from the same period last year. With the advent of the double festival, the logistics shutdown is imminent, the stock of enterprises is increasing, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is increasing; The environmental protection supervision team was restarted, the shutdown and production restriction of chemical enterprises increased, and the chemical sector rose together, driving the rise of orthobenzene prices.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The downstream trend was strong, the port inventory of mixed xylene decreased, and the fundamental support was good. However, the weak market demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the mixed xylene is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Pay attention to the impact of the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the trend of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.