According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has increased slightly recently, with a shock rise. The average price of ethylene on the 4th was US $1148.25/ton, and the average price of ethylene on the 5th was US $1152.75/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The current price has increased by 11.84% month on month, and the current price has increased by 56.68% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend. The ethylene market price in Asia declined slightly. As of the 4th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / T. The price center of ethylene market in Europe moved upward. As of the 4th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1364-1372 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1262-1276 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States continued to rise. As of the 4th, the price was US $1099-1117 / T. recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose, the recent increase of ethylene in the United States was large, and ethylene in Europe also continued to fluctuate and rise. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene external market demand is good recently, the market trading atmosphere is active, the transaction situation is good, and the ethylene market as a whole shows an upward trend.

Internationally: on August 4, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $68.15/barrel, down US $2.41 or 3.41%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $70.38/barrel, down US $2.08 or 2.87%. Oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading days, mainly due to the unexpected sharp increase in crude oil inventories released by the U.S. energy information administration on Wednesday. In addition, the market’s concern about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus has been further amplified, as well as the concern about the oversupply caused by the increase in production in oil producing countries.

The price of styrene has been lowered recently. At night, crude oil fell sharply, pure benzene and US dollar styrene both fell, and futures fell. However, some bargain hunters increased their positions slightly, suppressing today’s spot market. At the beginning of August, the port inventory increased, and there was still the expectation of accumulating inventory in a short time. In addition, the supply of Gulei styrene was increasing. In the downstream, the prices of EPS and PS remained stable, ABS fell slightly, the demand performance was general, mainly for just needed procurement, and the replenishment was limited. Unable to support the ethylene market.

The ethylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen continuously recently, the market is pessimistic about the demand for crude oil, and the support for the ethylene market is weak. Therefore, the data analyst of the business agency predicts that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 4, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9833 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (butanone reference price of 9166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 667 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.27%, and compared with July 5 (butanone reference price of 8433 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1400 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.60%.

In August, the domestic butanone market rose sharply. At present, domestic shipping, water transportation and land transportation are very strict, and the transportation is relatively limited. In addition, in August, the butanone operation rate decreased, the butanone factory in Lanzhou was overhauled, the output was low, and the transportation was limited. In August, the butanone market showed a tight supply situation, the supply gap appeared, and the butanone price began to rise in early August. As of August 4, The reference price of domestic butanone market is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, which is about 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference average price of domestic butanone market is 9833 yuan / ton, which is 667 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, an increase of 7.27%.

Upstream, in July, the price of Shandong civil gas market rose, and the off-season market was not weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4326.67 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4550.00 yuan / ton on July 31, with an increase of 5.16% in July. In July, affected by seasonal factors, due to the high weather temperature and weak terminal demand, the civil LPG market was in the traditional off-season. However, the off-season market was staged in July this year, and the civil gas market in Shandong was strong and upward. There were many positive factors in the liquefied gas market in July. At the end of June, with the introduction of CP price in July, propylene and butane increased significantly, and the inlet gas price increased. Moreover, the international crude oil price is at a high level. In addition, in terms of supply, the market supply of some manufacturers in Shandong market is reduced due to unit maintenance. Under multiple favorable factors, the liquefied gas market is supported to rise. However, there are still negative factors in the market. The weak terminal demand in the off-season has brought some constraints to the upstream route. The enthusiasm for entering the market in the upper half of the downstream is general, and the second half of the month is more positive, but the overall demand has not improved significantly.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the overall performance of the domestic butanone market is still in short supply. Therefore, the butanone data analysts of the business society believe that in August, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate at a high level.

The cyclohexanone market fluctuated slightly, Jiangsu Haili plant was shut down for maintenance, and some enterprises purchased in the market. After the sales pressure of cyclohexanone factory was relieved, the price rose. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 3, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China was 10380 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.59% and a year-on-year increase of 84.26%.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 33:

region ., Price

East China 10500-10600 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 11000-11100 yuan / ton, cash delivery, detailed discussion on actual orders

Shandong region 10400-10500 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, due to the loss of most downstream products and less demand for short supply in the market, the intention of spot purchase in the cycle is not expected, and the overall atmosphere of the market is weakening. After that, the price of styrene fell, followed by pure benzene. Downstream, caprolactam, caprolactam unit, Heze Xuyang caprolactam will restart a line at the end of this month, and the external cyclohexanone recovery unit will have little change temporarily.

The recent market of cost pure benzene mainly fell. After the market price of cyclohexanone rose in some areas, the downstream reaction was flat. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will enter the consolidation stage.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market decreased slightly. On August 2, the average market price in East China was 15000 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from the previous working day.

The domestic TDI market was shaken and sorted out, the atmosphere in the venue was quiet, the downstream follow-up was general, the transaction in the venue was light, the offer of the cargo holder was large, stable and small, cautious operation was the main, and the market lacked effective guidance. On August 2, for domestic goods with tickets in TDI mainstream market in East China market, it was around 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and for Shanghai goods with tickets, it was around 14700-15000 yuan / ton. The actual order was negotiated.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the domestic TDI market is generally traded, and the holder’s offer enthusiasm is not high. It maintains the negotiation and shipment. At the beginning of the month, the factory announced the listing price in August, and the price is flat compared with the previous month. There is no good news in the market. In the later stage, TDI market will wait and see the sorting and operation, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline prices continued to rise this week. On July 23, the price in Shandong was 10100-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10500 yuan / ton. On July 30, the price in Shandong was 10400-10600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10800-10900 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 2.93% over last week, 33.33% over the beginning of the year and 144.96% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, affected by typhoon weather, the demand in East China is blocked; In addition, the continuous decline of styrene led to the decline of pure benzene. The North was impacted by low-cost hydrogenated benzene, and the pressure of enterprise inventory and shipment was prominent, and the price continued to fall. This week, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8150 yuan / ton, giving some support to the market. On Sunday (August 1), the price of pure benzene was 7900-8150 yuan / ton (the average price was 8170 yuan / ton), and the average price decreased by 40 yuan / ton or 0.49% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 142.43%.

The price of nitric acid continued to rise during the week. On Friday (July 30), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2600 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.12% over last week and 69.57% over the same period last year.

In the early stage, the price of raw materials rose continuously, the cost pressure increased, and aniline rose passively. This week, due to the shutdown and maintenance of several aniline units, the supply decreased significantly, supporting the price to continue to rise.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, downstream profits were lost, some units were shut down, and the demand for pure benzene decreased. At present, the listing price of Sinopec is high, and there is expected to be downward space.

The raw material pure benzene continued to decline, and the profit of aniline improved to a certain extent. At present, the shutdown of several aniline units has brought certain benefits. With the restart of units in the later stage, the price may be impacted. Supply and demand still affect the later trend of aniline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.