After a 15% rise in June, the price of silicone DMC remained high in July. According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 8, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30566 yuan / ton, which was increased by 3900 yuan / ton or 14.62% compared with June 1 (26666 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the price trend of silicone DMC products by the business community that the market of silicone DMC in China rose sharply in June, with a rise of 15% in the whole month. At the beginning of June, silicone DMC started a steady upward path under the support of high raw materials. Then, there was an emergency in Xinjiang. Most people in the industry believed that the emergency would bring more tension to the market in the short term. Therefore, the market trend of silicone DMC in the later period was mostly bullish. Therefore, the lower reaches were in a positive state of hoarding under the fear of rising, Trading atmosphere.

With the support of various favorable factors, silicone DMC rose sharply after the Dragon Boat Festival. The biggest increase of silicone DMC in monomer factory after the festival reached 3000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, on June 17, the average price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / ton, with reference to 30733 yuan / ton, and the high-end offer of silicone DMC was around 31600 yuan / ton. In late June, the market of silicone DMC was stable after a slight decline.

In July, the silicone DMC continued to operate at a high and stable level. As of July 8, the factory reference value of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was around 30500 yuan / ton, and the overall market price remained at a high level.

Upstream, in June, silicon metal market rose as a whole, into July, the market continued to explore a small margin. On July 7, the mainstream price of silicon metal was 14408.33 yuan / ton; Compared with the same period last month, it increased by 2.97%. From the perspective of raw materials, most of the coal plants have been shut down for a century, and the safety inspection after the accident in the coal industry has been superimposed. Most of the main supply areas of coal mines are out of stock. From the export point of view, due to the shortage of domestic supply, foreign downstream trade actively replenished, and the price of export trade sheet rose accordingly.

Future trend forecast

At present, the orders of monomer factories are mostly scheduled until mid July. Affected by the high price of raw materials, the downstream demand may be slightly weakened in the future, but the inventory pressure of silicone DMC is still small. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that the silicone DMC market will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on July 7, the nickel price fell slightly, with the spot price of 134666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, up 5.1% from the beginning of the year, and up 25.99% from the same period last year. Shanghai nickel main opening at 138010 yuan, after the opening fell sharply to close at 135480 yuan, down 1.84%. LME3 closed at 18275 yuan, up 1.42%.

The strong US dollar put pressure on metals, and lunni fell to a two-week low of 2.22% overnight; The profit of ferronickel plant rebounded, the purchasing demand slowed down, the spot transaction of refined nickel was weak, and most businesses mainly stayed on the sidelines. The supply side of domestic nickel mines is tight, and the consumption growth of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, and the consumption of nickel sulfate has improved. Although the actual demand for downstream stainless steel is good, Indonesia’s ferronickel supply and new stainless steel production capacity will still exert pressure on nickel price. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will fluctuate widely.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the figure above, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4616.67 yuan / ton on June 28 to 4600.00 yuan / ton on July 2, down 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.36%, up 80.22% year on year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 120.52 on July 2.

The upstream support is better, and the downstream purchase intention is strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide offer this weekend for 4450 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer fell 50 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. Shenmu’s quotation this week is 1400 yuan / ton; This week’s quotation is 1450 yuan / ton; The price of bulk material is 1500 yuan / ton this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation increased from 8937.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.70%, 44.00% over the same period last year. This week, the price of PVC rose slightly, the market turned better, the maintenance of PVC was completed, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide increased. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream demand increased, with a slight rise in the future

In the first ten days of July, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market turned better and the demand increased. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in early July.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average domestic hips price on June 30 was 12533.33 yuan / ton, down from 13233.33 yuan / ton price at the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 5.29% in the month, and the average price of hips on July 5 was 12600 yuan / T, down 2.83% on a month-on-month basis.

2、 Market analysis

In June, hips market prices continued to decline, only in the end of the month there was a small rebound operation, the market weak operation dominated. In June, demand was light, raw styrene was volatile, cost side support fell, and affected by power limit in some regions. Some regions were affected by the trading and investment. Hips prices continued to decline. Near the end of the month, raw styrene rebounded and rose, driving the price of hips to rise. On July 5, hips market remained stable and rose sporadically. At present, the cost side support is still available, but the shipping situation is relatively general, the sales pressure of the enterprise increases, the mentality of the enterprise is negative, and the price fluctuation is limited. At present, the supply of CITIC Guoan equipment overhaul may be reduced, but the downstream demand is not enough to boost. The market of hips is mainly consolidation under the pull of supply and demand. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is about 12400-15300 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of GPPS is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and the overall price fluctuation of PS market is not large.

International crude oil market, on July 2, the international oil price was not changed much. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was USD 75.16/barrel, down slightly by 0.07 dollars. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at 76.16 US dollars / barrel, up 0.38 US dollars or 0.5%. OPEC + resumed supply policy talks Friday, with some of the remaining members still unresolved and oil prices fluctuated slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the end price of styrene is 9125 yuan / ton, down from the price of 9666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5.6% in the month. On July 5, the reference price of styrene was 9612.50, up 3.78% compared with 9262.50 on July 1. The supply of pure benzene will be eased in July, and the high level of pure benzene is expected to be reversed. In the early stage, the restart of styrene short stop unit and production of Gulei Petrochemical have picked up, while demand will continue to be weak in the off-season, and the price fluctuation of styrene is expected to be weak in the later period.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the business agency, in July, the raw styrene fluctuated strongly, and the hips market fluctuated with it. However, the demand in the downstream of the off-season was limited, which was insufficient to boost the market. Under the pull of supply and demand, it is expected that the market of hips will be mainly consolidation and the price fluctuates slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material at the beginning of this week was 11250 yuan / ton, while the average price of EPS ordinary material at the weekend was 10775 yuan / ton, down 4.22% and up 33.02% compared with the same period of this year.

2、 Market analysis

The strong rise of pure benzene led to the rebound of styrene, and the cost support improved. Some businesses replenished goods moderately, but the terminal demand was poor. The overall transaction turned better, but not as good as last week. As of July 1, Jiangsu’s common material was 10600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.95% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 11100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.91% on a month on month basis.

On the cost side, pure benzene supports the price of styrene, but the domestic supply of styrene may increase. In addition, the demand for downstream hard rubber is difficult to recover significantly. On the supply side, most of the EPS units will be shut down in the early stage or resume work in early July, and the output is expected to increase slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the demand for home appliances is weak, and it may be difficult for the downstream packaging industry to recover significantly. It is expected that the EPS market will weaken slightly next week.