1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. On September 12, the price of mixed xylene was 5710 yuan / ton; On Sunday (September 19), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, up 1.58% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.92%.

2、 Analysis and review

Driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products, mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. The price of gasoline blending rose, and the market trend of downstream terminals was strong; The overall trend of raw crude oil is upward, the market guidance is good, the market is bullish, and the price support psychology is not reduced. The port inventory of mixed xylene decreased this week.

In terms of external market, as of September 17, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $772.5/t, up US $10 / T or 1.31% month on month compared with September 10; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 795 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton or 1.53% month on month on September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream, in the PX market, in the PX market, the domestic PX trend was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, up 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose broadly this week and fell slightly near the weekend. On Friday (September 17), the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from last week and 40.6% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of orthobenzene rose this week. On Friday (September 17), the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from last week and 47.73% from the same period last year. With the advent of the double festival, the logistics shutdown is imminent, the stock of enterprises is increasing, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is increasing; The environmental protection supervision team was restarted, the shutdown and production restriction of chemical enterprises increased, and the chemical sector rose together, driving the rise of orthobenzene prices.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The downstream trend was strong, the port inventory of mixed xylene decreased, and the fundamental support was good. However, the weak market demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the mixed xylene is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Pay attention to the impact of the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the trend of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

On September 16, the cryolite commodity index was 78.80, the same as yesterday, down 22.14% from the highest point of 101.21 in the cycle (October 31, 2011), and up 18.76% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite market in Henan Province was stable on September 16. The average price of cryolite market was 6457.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The ex factory prices of cryolite in Henan and Shandong were 6300-6600 yuan / ton. The quotation of domestic enterprises is temporarily stable according to their own shipment situation, the overall operation of the market is relatively stable, the plant of cryolite manufacturers starts normally, the enterprise inventory is OK, the market supply is tight, the downstream purchases on demand, and the supply and demand performance is stable.

Future forecast: at present, the overall supply of cryolite market is stable, the raw materials are tight, the production capacity of individual cryolite enterprises is low, the cryolite price is high, the downstream demand is rational, and the price fluctuation will not be obvious in a short time. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably for the time being, with specific attention to the market demand.

On September 15, the rare earth index was 595 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 40.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 602500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal was 740000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 6275000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 815000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 765000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 30000 yuan / ton to 2705000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 2.66 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal increased by 35000 yuan / ton to 3.44 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market increased, the recent procurement was general, the price of praseodymium neodymium series increased slightly, the price trend of dysprosium series and terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market increased recently, the downstream procurement was not active, and Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring data of business society, hydrogen peroxide began to decline from August 24 to September, and the decline of hydrogen peroxide stabilized. On August 24, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 856 yuan / ton. On August 14, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 836 yuan / ton, down 2.33%.

Terminal demand is weak, and hydrogen peroxide enters the downward channel

Since August 24, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers has fallen steadily, from 856 yuan / ton to 836 yuan / ton, a decrease of more than 1%. In September, due to the end of the terminal paper industry, the caprolactam manufacturer’s goods preparation was completed, and the purchase demand weakened, hydrogen peroxide opened a downward market, with a one-day decline of 1.18%. In the week of September 14, the hydrogen peroxide market has gradually stabilized, lasting 836 yuan / ton. Among them, Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 930 yuan / ton, Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 820 yuan / ton, Shandong Luxi hydrogen peroxide quoted 760 yuan / ton, and the overall market stabilized.

Business community hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the Mid Autumn Festival stock market is over, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide has entered a weak consolidation period.

In September, domestic phenol rose unilaterally and continued to rise this week driven by raw materials. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9337 yuan / ton on September 6, 9487 yuan / ton on September 13, an increase of 1.61% in the week. Up to now, the offers of major mainstream markets are as follows: 9480 yuan / ton in East China, 9450 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, The offer in South China is 9600 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity ex factory price index in East China in 2021

It can be seen from the price trend of phenol in 2021 that at present, phenol is within a reasonable price range, and phenol has been adjusting in the range since the second quarter. In September, domestic phenol factories raised their offers intensively, which increased the confidence of the market. Although the port stock increased, the output of overseas devices decreased in September and the domestic supply is expected to increase. Considering that some export cargo holders are not in a hurry to ship, there is no pressure on the short-term supply side, and most low prices do not increase the market quotation by a narrow margin, in terms of devices, In September, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units changed little, ranging from 85% to 90%. In September, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan.

On the raw material side, pure benzene rose sharply today. Last weekend, Shandong even inspected the environmental impact of some units. The downstream bidding significantly pushed up the raw materials. Due to the delay of Hong Kong shipping in East China affected by the typhoon, pure benzene rose sharply today. The sharp rise of raw materials must have a great impact on the mentality of downstream traders in the industrial chain. Phenol holders may be reluctant to sell, and the negotiation is gradually close to the high-end, But the trading volume is insufficient. The downstream bisphenol a market fell significantly. Recently, although the market offer continued to decline under the condition of insufficient supply expectation, today’s offer reached 27000-27100 yuan / ton. Bisphenol A is mostly Petrochemical supporting devices, which has little impact on the phenol Market, phenolic resin and other downstream changes, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the rapid rise of pure benzene has exacerbated the wait-and-see mood in the phenol Market. Although the terminal procurement is general, the cargo holders intend to make profit in the morning, the short-term replenishment volume is small, the supply of domestic cargo holders is not pressure, and the cargo holders are still bullish on the market. The business community expects that the phenol market will still have good expectations in the short term and keep a narrow rise expectation, The reference offer in East China is 9500 yuan / ton.