The market of ethylene oxide has been stable recently, and the estimated profit is about 310 yuan. The upstream ethylene market is stable, the price of Sinopec is reduced to 8300 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical is reduced to 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong at present. The downstream market of ethylene oxide is better than the single market, and the delivery of goods is relatively smooth. At present, due to the influence of the early stage stock market, the transaction volume of the monomer is reduced, and the terminal consumes the stock of raw materials in the early stage, which is more inconsistent with the current monomer price. Therefore, the manufacturer has no intention to adjust the current quotation for the time being. In addition, the terminal operating rate rises slowly, which has an impact on the monomer consumption There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Ethylene glycol was affected by the weakness of chemical fiber production and marketing, with low volatility and many negative factors in the market. The manufacturer slightly reduced the load of ethylene glycol, but the impact on the fundamentals of ethylene oxide was limited.

 

In terms of units, in order to avoid the commissioning time of satellite petrochemical, Zhenhai Yangzi and Sanjiang units delayed maintenance. Maoming Petrochemical plans to overhaul on the 25th. At present, the epoxy supply side is relatively abundant.

 

Market participants are stable at present, but it is expected that there will be a downward trend in the long term.

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According to business news agency data, on March 18, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5464.33 yuan / kg, up 3.02% in the day, down 0.29% from 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and down 1.54% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

On March 18, the spot price of gold was 367.60 yuan / g, up 0.82% in the day, up 0.55% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and down 6.39% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g in the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

Core inflation expectations rose, precious metal prices rose slightly

 

At 2:00 Beijing time on the 18th, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its economic and GDP growth expectations, but it has no intention to reduce QE in the near future. Core inflation expectations rose, and precious metal prices rose slightly.

 

Gold price stops falling and rising

 

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. Recently, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilize and recover slightly. On the one hand, due to the booming domestic precious metal consumer market, the price of gold doubled and the sharp increase of consumer demand in other places during the Chinese New Year. On the other hand, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

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According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 17, the average price reference of the market quotation of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring is 28833 yuan / ton, and the average price increases 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with the price of March 1, 2021 (reference price is 23666 yuan / ton); compared with the price before the Spring Festival (reference price of 21533 yuan / ton on February 11, 2021), the average price increases by 7300 yuan / ton, and the total price increases after the saving The results showed that the rate of the treatment was 33.90%.

 

After the Spring Festival, the domestic silicone DMC market has increased greatly, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. By the end of February, the factory price of silicone DMC was increased four times after the festival. According to the monitoring of business agency data, the average price after the Festival increased by 1100 yuan / ton in total, and the high-end offer price of silicone DMC in a large factory in Shandong Province rose to 23500 yuan / T, and the last 4 times of the plant were saved The price was increased for the next time, and the total increase was 1700 yuan / ton.

 

Silicone DMC made high-end offer of 8 price adjustment in March, exceeding 30000 yuan / ton

 

In March, the trend of silicone DMC continued to be strong, the market was “in a state of the art”, and the downstream silica gel and other products showed good export performance. The demand for silicone DMC raw materials continued to increase, and the market of silicone also rose continuously with the rise of the price of silicone DMC, which formed a strong situation of mutual support. Most of the DMC factories began to seal the offer without report, limited receipt, on-site spot tension, a single is difficult to ask. As of March 17, in more than half a month, the market of silicone DMC has increased the factory price of DMC for 8 times, with a total increase of more than 5000 yuan / ton. On June 16, Shandong Luxi increased the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC to 30200 yuan / ton again, which also created the maximum daily increase of 1100 yuan / ton for silicone DMC in recent half month. Thus, the high-end offer price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / T, and the average price reference of silicone DMC was 28833 yuan / T, which was up 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with that in early March. At present, most other factories do not report the offer, which has been mainly discussed in practice, the factory has compact list and many pre-processing orders.

 

Since the festival, the domestic market price of silicone DMC has increased 13 times, with the price rising by more than 7300 yuan / ton, and the total increase after the festival is nearly 34%.

 

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up of the device of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

 

Enterprise name: total capacity of organosilicon, operation of unit, price note

Tax content of purified water of 80thousand tons / year 30200 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Industry

Inner Mongolia Hengye Cheng 240000 / T sealed plate without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

340000 / T sealed plate of Zhejiang Xin’an chemical industry without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

Hesheng silicon industry 35.58 million tons / year reference 29700-30000 yuan / ton unit stable operation market price

7 floors of the unit of 320000 tons / year of Hubei Xingfa without offer—

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 tons / year is temporarily not offered in the parking of the device—

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a unit is not offered for offer for the time being, and the device is running smoothly—

Downstream, the downstream 107 rubber and raw rubber products of silicone DMC are also rising under the drive of raw materials. At present, the market price of domestic new material 107 rubber has risen to 29000-29800 yuan / T, and the high-end offer of raw rubber has exceeded 30500 yuan / T, and currently, many factories have closed the offer.

 

2021 capacity of silicone industrial chain increases, and downstream export of DMC increases continuously

 

1. Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons hydrogen containing silicone oil project will be put into operation

 

Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons “430#######ාාා#ාාා#ාා෗#ා. “430″ hydrogen containing silicone oil expansion unit installation project “is to rebuild and install a new set of equipment on the basis of the original three sets. The main equipment includes reaction kettle, polymerization tank, etc., as well as supporting process pipeline, electrical and other facilities. After the festival, the equipment department shall contact the workshop and construction unit, and take the defensive measures during the epidemic period into the construction state quickly to ensure the construction stability.

 

The project makes the best use of hydrogen in the monomer by-product, which can increase economic benefits, but also creates certain social benefits. Compared with the first and second production lines, the new production line has high automation, high output and good quality. It also plays a good role in increasing employment position, adjusting the downstream product structure of the company, extending the industrial chain and improving the competitiveness of enterprises in the market.

 

2. The silicone project of Shihezi base of Hesheng silicon industry in Zhejiang Province will be put into operation

 

Hesheng silicon industry has an annual total industrial silicon capacity of 730000 tons. After the successful completion of the silicon project in Shihezi base in 2021, the total capacity of silicone monomer will reach 930000 tons. At present, the utilization rate of industrial silicon capacity of the company is about 90%! In addition, Hesheng silicon industry is planning 800000 tons of silicone and 800000 tons of industrial silicon projects in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province. The first phase of 400000 tons of silicone production capacity is expected to be put into operation in mid-2022. Yunnan has abundant resources. Although Yunnan has high electricity price, it has low ore transportation cost, and the finished products are exported to Southeast and southwest demand areas, and the products are closer to the terminal. In the future, Hesheng silicon industry will be more prominent in the leading position in the industry.

 

2021 the downstream export of silicone DMC is increasing

 

In the first two months of 2021, China’s import and export value was 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year (the same below). The total value of February was 2.42 trillion yuan, up 57%. Among them, thousands of export-oriented silicon manufacturing enterprises also kept growing orders.

 

Double impact of capacity and opportunity: silicone DMC is expected to return to its peak in 2021

 

At present, the silicone DMC market is reluctant to sell, the factory has low spot inventory, the sealing disk appears more common, more orders are arranged, and the weather is warming gradually, and the demand of downstream products is increasing. Therefore, the data analysts of silicone DMC data of the business agency believe that the trend of silicone DMC market will continue to rise in the short term, and it is expected to “return to the peak time”. The specific market also needs to pay more attention to the changes of raw material end and demand end.

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1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

 

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

As of March 14, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 68000 yuan / ton, up 2% compared with the beginning of the week, 18.60% compared with February 14, and 30.77% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data from the business club’s block list.

 

The market of industrial lithium hydroxide rose this week. Spot market is relatively tight, downstream enterprises actively inquire, low price shipping intention is not strong, price center of gravity moves up.

 

Output data of lithium hydroxide: in February 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was 11300 tons, up 2.73% on a month on month basis and 253.13% on a year-on-year basis.

 

Upstream lithium carbonate, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China rose slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of March 12, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 84600 yuan / ton, which was 1.20% higher than that at the beginning of the week (March 8, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 83600 yuan / ton). On March 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 89400 yuan / ton, which increased by 0.90% compared with the average price of 88600 yuan / ton in East China at the beginning of March.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 10th week of 2021 (3.8-3.12), there were 49 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were chloroform (18.73%), calcium carbide (12.07%) and aniline (9.12%). There were 15 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline were ethylene glycol (- 7.49%), styrene (- 4.85%) and ox (- 4.62%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.2%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of lithium hydroxide from business news agency believe that the recent cost support is strong, and the market is very strong under the tight spot supply. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

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According to the monitoring data of business news agency, since 2021, hydrogen peroxide has started to plunge from the high of 1400 yuan / ton. Hydrogen peroxide, which has fallen for two and a half months in a row, finally ushered in a counter attack on March 15, returning to the 1000 yuan mark, and the daily price has risen by more than 10%. Although there is still some distance from the high level at the beginning of the year, it has restored confidence in the depressed market of hydrogen peroxide.

 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from December 2020 to March 15, 2021, hydrogen peroxide has dropped for two and a half months in a row in 2021. The weekly decline of hydrogen peroxide in February has gradually expanded. Except for the Spring Festival holiday, hydrogen peroxide has no quotation, it has dropped for three weeks in a row, with the largest weekly decline of more than 11%. The performance of hydrogen peroxide in the first week of March was not good. In the week of March 8, hydrogen peroxide had risen. On March 15, hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 10% in a single day.

 

Multiple positive factors support hydrogen peroxide Market

 

In the first quarter of 2021, hydrogen peroxide has dropped for more than two consecutive months, with a drop of 35%. Starting from the second week of March, hydrogen peroxide completely got rid of the downturn that lasted for more than two months. The main positive factors were the sharp rise of terminal paper and caprolactam market, the increase of rigid demand for purchasing, and the shutdown of hydrogen peroxide manufacturer Anhui Quansheng for maintenance in the week of March 11, resulting in the decrease of supply. On the 12th, the factory collectively raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, which ushered in the rising trend of hydrogen peroxide. On the 15th, the market of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply, with the price breaking through the 1000 yuan mark, with a daily increase of more than 10%.

 

On March 15, Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 960 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1150 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton; Shandong Huatai paper quoted 1100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton.

 

Although hydrogen peroxide has dropped sharply for two and a half months, the market of terminal papermaking and caprolactam is relatively good, and both paper and caprolactam are on the rise after 2021. Supported by the terminal market, hydrogen peroxide finally ushered in the rising market in the middle of March.

 

Paper: because nine dragon many bases before the festival issued after the Spring Festival price rise notice, after the festival paper mills have followed the price rise. However, due to the impact of public health events in northern China, the production was stopped ahead of schedule. With the stabilization of post Festival health events, the downstream paper mills started to work actively, so the demand for raw paper began to rise. With the rising raw material prices and strong demand, the price of corrugated paper rose sharply. Although the paper market had a correction in mid March, it was still at a high level. On March 15, the price of corrugated paper increased by more than 10.04% compared with the beginning of January.

 

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, the external market, the United States extremely cold weather, crude oil, chemical refineries shut down, resulting in a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam was supported by the sharp rise of raw material pure benzene, and its operating rate was general. The terminal PA6 chip manufacturers started one after another, the demand increased, the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. On March 15, the price of caprolactam rose by 28.64% compared with the beginning of January. As of March 15, the price of caprolactam had increased by 27.58% compared with the beginning of January.

 

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the terminal is supported by rigid demand, and the supply is tight. The future market of hydrogen peroxide will still be high.

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