According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on May 28 was 38.88, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 61.12% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now
Figure 2: weekly trend of natural rubber mainstream price from May 24 to 28, 2021
Data monitoring shows that during the week of May 24-28, 2021, the overall fluctuation range of natural rubber domestic all latex market is very small: the mainstream price on Monday (24) is 13125 yuan / ton, and the main price on Friday (28) is 13112.5 yuan / ton. Among them, the highest price of this week is 13200 yuan / ton on Wednesday (26), and the lowest price is 13112.5 yuan / ton on Friday (28), with the maximum amplitude of only 0.66%. According to the analysis, the market around 13000 yuan / ton in the middle of this month was actively buying, which pushed the natural rubber market into a stable period.
From the perspective of new rubber output, at present, the main natural rubber producing areas in China have normal cutting, and the supply pressure is increasing. Globally, ANRPC’s latest report shows that global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 22.5% to 903000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased by 26.5%, Indonesia by 2.8%, Vietnam by 100% and Malaysia by 9.8%. Global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 15.1% to 1.129 million tons in April. Among them, China increased by 9.2%, India by 915%, Thailand by 2.4% and Malaysia by 15.8%. Among them, the main producer Thailand’s export volume of natural rubber in April increased by 34% year on year and decreased by 20% month on month.
From the perspective of downstream demand and the situation of tire manufacturers, may is the traditional peak of tire supply. Statistics show that the operating rate of manufacturers in this month is lower than that of last month, and the decline is more than expected. As of May 20, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 62.52%, with a decrease of 6.08 percentage points per week and 2.83 percentage points per week on a year-on-year basis; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 60.98%, with a decrease of 3.75 percentage points per week and 2.27 percentage points per week. According to automobile data, China’s automobile production and sales in April were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 9.3% and 10.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 8.586 million and 8.748 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate dropped by 28.3 percentage points and 23.8 percentage points from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, 2.1 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points higher than that from January to March. From the data of commercial vehicles, from January to April, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles were 1.918 million and 1.956 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47% and 47.3% respectively. However, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial vehicle production and sales fell to 1.2% and 2.3% in April, and the demand support weakened. Foreign: Vietnam: according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the first quarter of 2021, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached 674 million US dollars (4.32 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 103%. In the first quarter, the average price of rubber export also increased by 14% year on year, reaching US $1660 / T (RMB 10640 / T). Vietnam Rubber Association official said that the main reason for the increase in latex prices is mainly affected by COVID-19, and the supply of multinational goods is decreasing. Except for China, at present, the import volume of us rubber from Vietnam increases, while that from Thailand and Indonesia decreases, because Vietnam has enough manpower to cut rubber. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.
From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 179866 tons (+ 910 tons) as of May 28, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 176460 tons (- 210 tons). As of May 24, the inventory in Qingdao free trade zone was 98700 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.35%; General trade warehouse inventory was 52.17 tons, a month on month decrease of 3.89%, continuing the trend of destocking.
In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year on year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.158 million tons in the same period of 2020. Cambodia: according to the report released by the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, Cambodia’s rubber export volume in the first four months of this year decreased by 15% to 61056 tons, compared with 71749 tons in the same period last year. Rubber export revenue reached US $99.87 million, up 2.5% from US $97.43 million last year. Ivory Coast: according to the preliminary port data released on May 4, in the first quarter of 2021, Ivory Coast’s rubber exports totaled 242621 tons, down about 30% from 346135 tons in the same period of 2020. Vietnam: according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of industry and trade, Vietnam’s rubber export volume in April 2021 was about 80000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 92%; The export value was about 143 million US dollars, up 169% year on year. From January to April, the total export volume of rubber was about 486000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%; The total export value was about 817 million US dollars, an increase of about 112% year on year. Thailand: according to the Thai world daily, the rubber export industry recently revealed that the rubber export trend in 2021 has greatly improved. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that the rubber export volume in March was 349000 tons, an increase of 65.5%, and the value was 587 million US dollars, an increase of 109.2%. In the first quarter, the export volume of rubber was 870000 tons, up 10.7%, with a value of US $1.44 billion, up 38.1%. In particular, the demand of China’s market ranked first, accounting for 32% of the export share, and the demand for rubber increased by 17%; The second is Malaysia, Japan and the United States; India’s market demand increased by 127%, and rubber products also increased by 32.5%.
From the perspective of industry hotspots, first of all, the lack of core is serious: according to Thai media report on May 9, due to the shortage of global chip supply chain, Thailand’s auto production in 2021 is expected to decrease by 40000 vehicles year on year, and auto manufacturers must adjust the chip supply structure to meet long-term demand. Since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing the shortage of microchips, especially the important components of electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, which has led to the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. Second, on May 25, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final verdict on the anti-dumping of semi steel tires imported from South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The result of this year’s final ruling is generally better than that of last year’s preliminary ruling. Among them, the area with the most obvious decline is Taiwan, China. The “double anti” tax of a few brands has increased, but the increase is small. Compared with the results of last year’s preliminary determination, the anti-dumping duties of Linglong tire and Zhengxin tire have been reduced. Among them, Zhengxin tire decreased by more than 61%. The final result of the round is the same as that of the preliminary round, and the export to the U.S. market is not affected by “double reverse”. Third, the lack of core affects the global automobile industry. The report said that since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing a shortage of microchips, especially microcontrollers, which are important components in electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, resulting in the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. In the second half of the year, the global chip shortage will be alleviated temporarily. However, in the long run, solving the structural problems in the supply chain of automobile chips will still be the main challenge for automobile manufacturers.
As for the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the analysis of the business community shows that from a macro perspective, the new crowns pneumonia outbreak and the virus mutation are more worrying. Many countries implement the policy of fighting against the epidemic situation. The recovery of economic activities is delayed or canceled due to health considerations, and economic development is bound to be deeply affected. Secondly, the commodity market is very sensitive to the changes of global politics, economy and other forms, and has great uncertainty in the current international situation. From the industrial point of view, natural rubber is now in the normal annual supply period. Although the supply in Southeast Asia will be affected by the epidemic, the overall pressure on the supply side of natural rubber is still increasing, and the global automobile demand is deeply affected by the economy and the epidemic. The purchasing demand of downstream tire enterprises for rubber is declining due to the decline of tire market demand, Although the domestic natural rubber is in the stage of destocking, the overall weak demand leads to the weak follow-up support of natural rubber. Taking into account the fact that there is a lot of buying around 13000 yuan / ton of HuJiao, it is more likely that natural rubber will fluctuate in the range of 1000 yuan / ton.
| Thiourea |