Domestic price trend:
From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable in May. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in may.
In May, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Qingdao Lidong unit was in full load operation, and the Qilu Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, the start-up of overseas plants is general, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price was above US $65 / barrel, and the trend of PX external price remained volatile. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were US $827-829 / T FOB South Korea and US $845-847 / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia was normal. As a whole, the operation rate of p-toluene unit in Asia was less than 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia was general, PX external closing price remained high, affected by the external price, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.
International crude oil prices continued to rise in May. Although the epidemic situation is still severe, the death toll in India has declined in recent days, further enhancing the expectation of oil demand recovery. The market generally believes that even if Iran may restart its crude oil export in the future, which will bring some risks to global supply, with the acceleration of vaccination process, global demand will continue to increase, which will not affect the oil price to maintain an upward trend. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC + and its allies to stop increasing production for two months in the second half of 2021 to offset the increase in Iranian output. According to the statement of Goldman Sachs, we can understand that the future growth is still certain, and the risk of increasing fuel supply in the future may be suppressed based on the OPEC + production control policy. As of May 27, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.85/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $69.46/barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price in May is good for domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.
In May, the price trend of downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 28th, the average price of PTA market was 4650-4750 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.72% in May. In the middle of May, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, PTA supply showed an upward trend, and the price trend in the market fell. As of May 27, the operating rate was around 83%, with a month on month increase of about 5%, and the price continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester market is flat. The polyester production and sales of mainstream factories are concentrated in 30% – 60%, and some better manufacturers can do flat. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 12-25 days, of which POY inventory is 9-21 days, FDY inventory is about 12-16 days, and DTY inventory is about 15-28 days. The price of downstream textile industry was mainly stable, PTA price fell slightly in May, but the overall demand of downstream was poor, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.
PX analyst Chen Ling believes that there is a certain positive support for the current crude oil cost, and the short-term crude oil price will maintain an upward trend, but the performance of downstream polyester is not warm, and the PTA new device is expected to be put into production, and the textile industry is in the off-season of sales, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise slightly in the later period boosted by crude oil.
| Thiourea |