1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 25, the price of toluene was 5671 yuan / ton; The price on Friday (April 30) was 5697 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton or 0.46% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene inventories at ports in East China fell this week. The downstream news is weak, just need to buy before the festival, and the negotiation is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 30, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23; The price of imported toluene in East China was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 15666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week and up 57.72% from the same period last year. In the domestic market consolidation operation, the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. The operation of p-xylene units in North and East China is stable as a whole. The on-site operation rate is more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal and the goods are in good condition. The on-site operation rate is about 50% in Northwest China and more than 50% in South China. As of April 29, the closing prices in Asia were US $858-860 / T FOB Korea and US $876-878 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to run stronger, supporting toluene prices; It is difficult for downstream products to provide demand support, and some downstream devices have maintenance plans. Overall, the trend of toluene is expected to be weak after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, aniline was running stably within the week. On April 25, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. The average price was the same as last week, up 35.86% from the beginning of the year and 123.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, in the first half of this week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, rose first and then fell, the delivery price of styrene at the end of the month rose, and pure benzene followed the trend; After the fall of demand, the market center of pure benzene weakened. In the second half of the week, due to the preparation of pure benzene before the festival and the active downstream procurement, the inventory of some enterprises continued to decline and the market price strengthened. This week, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support and strong market mentality. On Friday (April 30), the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (the average price was 7410 yuan / ton), which was 130 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 1.79%; It was 145.36% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (April 30), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.2% compared with the beginning of the month and 56.82% compared with the same period last year.

The price of aniline was very high in this week. On the demand side, the downstream procurement before this week’s festival supported the price of aniline; In terms of devices, Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong devices are restarted, and the on-site supply is expected to increase; In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose continuously, and the bidding price of enterprises rose, which was good for aniline.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost and supply, the pure benzene market is expected to remain tight in May. In terms of inventory, the arrival of goods at the end of the month was concentrated, and the main port inventory in East China began to accumulate, but the increment was not high. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, it is expected to maintain a strong trend in May. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong plants restart, and the market supply is expected to increase. However, Shanxi Tianji and Nanjing chemical plants have maintenance plans in May, which are expected to offset the negative effect brought by increased supply. Cost side is expected to maintain a strong trend, supporting aniline prices. Downstream demand reduction or drag aniline Market. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of caprolactam in China has risen recently. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 13266 yuan / ton on April 26, and 13233 yuan / ton on April 30. The price dropped by 0.25% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of April 30, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14100 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 13900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 13900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the normal operation of the device, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 13900 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 12800 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise this week. The price at the beginning of the week is 7280 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene rose as the price of downstream styrene rose. The price of pure benzene continued to strengthen and rose to 7330 yuan / ton at the weekend.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business news agency believe that at present, due to the strong support of rising costs and insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, caprolactam profits have decreased and the price has begun to fluctuate slightly. It is expected that in the short term, it is difficult for the price to fluctuate significantly, and the market is mainly volatile. Focus on cost and demand changes.

Price trend:

As of April 29, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.21% compared with the price of the previous working day, unchanged compared with the beginning of the week, and down 9.78% compared with March 29.

2、 Market analysis

From mid February 2021, the price of acrylonitrile continued to rise due to the rising cost of raw materials and the imbalance between supply and demand, and rose to 16500 yuan / ton on March 10, which was the highest price in the past five years. After March, the price of acrylonitrile began to fall in the last ten days due to the impact of the price of upstream raw materials, and the market reference price was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. In April, the reference price of acrylonitrile market continued to fall. Last week, the reference price of acrylonitrile continued to fall slightly. However, the offer of middlemen remained firm and kept a wait-and-see attitude. At the beginning of this week, the reference price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market dropped to 14500 yuan / ton and remained stable until the end of April; Upstream manufacturers have no notification of changes in equipment maintenance capacity, middlemen’s quotations are stable, domestic market fundamentals have no significant changes, and trading is normal. In addition, this week will usher in the May Day holiday, downstream users are willing to stock up, which may slightly improve the trading atmosphere. However, middlemen are more cautious about the price of acrylonitrile, the price is not strong enough, and the market is bearish, so the trading volume is still limited.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly and began to stabilize on the 23rd. On April 20, the external price of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again. In recent days, the price of propylene in Asia increased slightly, which had a certain impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

Downstream:

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of NBR was 21166 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 1.85% from the previous day and 8.59% from the beginning of April. The demand for raw materials is weak, and it is expected that NBR will continue to be weak in the future. The commodity index of polyacrylamide on April 28 was 94.20, 12.07% lower than the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and 13.64% higher than the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now). In the short term, the market is stable, while in the medium and long term, it still depends on the pull of demand.

3、 Future forecast:

At present, the raw material propylene is weak, the downstream NBR is slightly lower, the operating rate is low, the performance is general, and there is resistance to the price of acrylonitrile; Polyacrylamide market fluctuated slightly, inventory was relatively sufficient at the end of the month, and demand was tepid. Acrylonitrile analysts of business news agency believe that the supply and demand side support of acrylonitrile market is insufficient in the future, and the price rising power is weak. It is expected that the market will be consolidated in the short term, the market amplitude is small, and the direction is not easy to grasp. We need to be cautious, and the wait-and-see sentiment will increase. We should pay more attention to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver market in the morning on April 29 was 5442.67 yuan / kg, up 1.59% in the day, up 7.54% from 5061 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.93%.

On April 29, the spot price of gold was 373.47 yuan / g, an intraday increase of 0.57%, 2.79% higher than the average price of 363.35 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (4.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 392.70 yuan / g, down 4.90%.

Strong consumer demand for gold and shrinking investment demand in the first quarter

According to the report released by the world gold association, the global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) in the first quarter was 815.7 tons, which was basically the same as that in the fourth quarter of 2020, but decreased by 23% compared with the first quarter of 2020. Although the average gold price in the first quarter rose 13% year-on-year, it fell 4% quarter on quarter. The relatively low price of gold compared with last year has stimulated the consumer demand for gold. In particular, the gradual lifting of epidemic blockade in many markets and the beginning of economic recovery provide further support for the growth of demand. The significant outflow of gold ETF offset the strong growth of consumer demand. The rising interest rate and the falling trend of gold price restrained some investors’ interest in gold, and the global gold ETF net outflow was 177.9 tons in the first quarter.

Gold price stops falling in April

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. Recently, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilize and recover slightly. On the one hand, due to the booming domestic precious metal consumer market, the price of gold doubled, and the demand for physical consumption soared. On the other hand, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

Future forecast

The overseas epidemic situation, especially in India, has attracted much attention recently; As one of the main gold consumers, India may be affected to some extent. However, due to the fact that the price of precious metals is greatly affected by the investment demand, it is expected that the price of precious metals will still recover in the near future.