1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 25, the price of toluene was 5671 yuan / ton; The price on Friday (April 30) was 5697 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton or 0.46% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
Toluene inventories at ports in East China fell this week. The downstream news is weak, just need to buy before the festival, and the negotiation is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 30, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23; The price of imported toluene in East China was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23.
In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 15666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week and up 57.72% from the same period last year. In the domestic market consolidation operation, the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. The operation of p-xylene units in North and East China is stable as a whole. The on-site operation rate is more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal and the goods are in good condition. The on-site operation rate is about 50% in Northwest China and more than 50% in South China. As of April 29, the closing prices in Asia were US $858-860 / T FOB Korea and US $876-878 / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Crude oil is expected to run stronger, supporting toluene prices; It is difficult for downstream products to provide demand support, and some downstream devices have maintenance plans. Overall, the trend of toluene is expected to be weak after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.
| Thiourea |