According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week (3.22-3.26), the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 26, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.73% from 3656 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.11% from the lowest point of 3590 yuan / ton on Wednesday, and the average price of trichloromethane was about 3750 yuan / ton, down 5.86% from 3983 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the lowest point on Wednesday 3700 yuan / ton, up 1.35%.

This week, there was little pressure on the spot inventory of methane chloride in Shandong Province. The starting load of some enterprises in Zhongyue and Dongyue was not high, and the starting load in Luxi was about 90%. The overall market supply was still moderately tight. In addition, after the price of methane chloride was lower than the previous period, the downstream procurement increased slightly, and the demand side recovered.

The cost side is intertwined. The support of liquid chlorine is stronger than that of methanol. The price of liquid chlorine rose this week, and the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong was 1850-2000 yuan / ton. However, this week, the international crude oil fluctuated up and down at US $60, which was weak as a whole. As of the 25th, the WTI contract closed at US $58.34/barrel in May, which was negative for domestic chemicals. The price of methanol is also at a low level. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of methanol was 2330 yuan / ton.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong is not big, coupled with the slight recovery of downstream procurement and the rise of liquid chlorine, the price of methane chloride is expected to rise steadily in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 25, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 19 (reference price 29833 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%. Compared with the price on March 1 (reference price 23666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

In late March, silicone DMC experienced a cool fall after a surge

Since the beginning of March, the domestic market of silicone DMC has been rising all the way. By the middle of March, on the 16th, the quoted price of a large silicone DMC factory in Shandong broke through the 30000 yuan / ton mark, the market price almost touched the ceiling, and the quoted price of the secondary market was basically around 29500-30000 yuan / ton. With the continuous increase of production cost, the downstream pressure has increased sharply, and the profit of the terminal market has been seriously compressed. The digestibility and affordability of the downstream are limited. The hidden danger brought to the market by the rapid price inflation is obvious. The sales of high-end prices are reduced, and the quantity of orders received by the downstream is reduced. Shandong large factories quickly reduce the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For seven days, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory is frequent On the 25th, the high-end quotation of silicone DMC in the plant was reduced from 30200 yuan / ton to 27500 yuan / ton, down 2700 yuan / ton.

At present, the price changes of silicone DMC in the market mainly come from Shandong silicone DMC manufacturers. The prices of most of the other factories are still stable around 28000-29500 yuan / ton. The market sealing still exists. Most of the factories keep limited orders, the supply continues to be tight, and the game between the raw material side and the demand side is showing for the first time. On the 25th, the factory quotation of silicone DMC market was around 27500-29500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the 19th of last weekend, the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%; compared with the price on the 1st of the month, the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

The game between supply and demand is emerging, and the market will remain high in the short term

At present, the silicone DMC market seems calm on the surface, but in fact, it is turbulent. The rush in the early stage has brought substantial cost pressure to the downstream. At present, the downstream market is slowing down and the wait-and-see situation is aggravating. However, the low spot inventory of the silicone DMC factory and limited orders still support the high and stable offer of the factory. The supply and demand game of silicone DMC has begun to emerge, according to the data analysts of the business society, According to the current market trend, the right to speak still focuses on the raw material side, so the future market of silicone DMC will be able to maintain high and stable operation.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the price of zinc market rose weakly. As of March 24, the average price of zinc was 21843.33 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from 21606.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

Domestic zinc Market

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2021, China’s zinc ingot production reached 1.075 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From January to February, China’s imports of refined zinc increased 60% year on year to 87345 tons. The domestic zinc ingot supply increased and the zinc market was short.

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has issued the double control target task of energy consumption in 2021, and determined the target task of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 3% and controlling the energy consumption increment within 5 million tons of standard coal in 2021. The growth rate of total energy consumption was controlled at about 1.9%, and the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value (equal value) decreased by more than 4%. Increasing energy consumption control in various parts of the country has a certain impact on the production of mines and other enterprises. Some zinc mines are shut down, but compared with the overall output, the impact of shutting down production is limited.

According to the survey data at the beginning of March, in 130 galvanizing production enterprises, 51 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 80.83%; the capacity utilization rate was 71.53%, which was 1.84% higher than last week; the weekly output was 860400 tons, which was 22100 tons higher than last week; in 47 color coating production enterprises, 9 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 91.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 77.4%, which was 3.5% higher than last week 1%; the weekly output was 21.41 tons, an increase of 9700 tons compared with last week; the warehouse inventory of coated steel coil in the main domestic market: 1.291 million tons of galvanized steel, an increase of 38500 tons on a week-on-week basis; 269500 tons of color coating, an increase of 12800 tons on a week-on-week basis. The total inventory of coating and plating was 1.5605 million tons, an increase of 51300 tons per week. It can be seen from the statistical data that the output of the downstream industry chain of zinc city rises, the downstream operating rate rises slowly, the demand of zinc city rises, and the market of zinc city is good.

Zinc imports

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, from January to December 2020, China’s import volume of zinc ore reached 3.707 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. From January to February 2021, China’s imports of zinc ore and concentrate totaled 680100 physical tons, China’s imports of zinc ingots totaled 88200 metal tons from January to February, and China’s imports of unwrought zinc alloy totaled 10500 tons from January to February. In 2020, the import volume of domestic zinc ore will increase greatly, and the supply of zinc market will be sufficient. However, the import volume of zinc market will be stable from January to February in 21. The supply of zinc in the city is generally sufficient.

Zinc processing fee

Due to the shortage of mine supply, the processing fee paid by the miner to the smelter for refining zinc decreased from $300 / t a year ago to $200 / T in 2021. China’s domestic zinc concentrate processing fee fell to 3600-4200 yuan / ton in March, the lowest level since September 2018, far lower than 6500 yuan / ton in early 2020. Lower processing fee may force zinc smelters to cut production. The output of zinc smelters decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the market of zinc market rose.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: Recently, affected by the epidemic, the EU’s economic recovery has been frustrated, the nonferrous plate is under pressure, and the zinc market is weakening. However, in the long run, the strengthening of energy consumption control in China limits the increase of zinc market output to a certain extent. The low zinc concentrate processing fees also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The probability of output decline in the future of zinc market increases. The increase of imported zinc alleviates the decrease of domestic zinc market supply, and the supply of zinc market is generally sufficient. However, the downstream of zinc industry chain started to rise, the demand for zinc ingots slowly recovered, and the future supply of zinc market is still tight. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future, zinc market is cautiously optimistic.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise in the first ten days of March. After the middle of March, the acetic anhydride price stabilized and fell slightly. As of March 23, the price of acetic anhydride was 9466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.79% from 9300.00 yuan / ton on March 1, and down 0.87% from 9550.00 yuan / ton on March 10. Since the middle of March, the market of acetic anhydride has not been strong, and the price of acetic anhydride has dropped slightly.

Acetic acid price trend

From the price trend chart of acetic acid, we can see that the support for the rise of acetic acid price still exists in early March, and the price of acetic acid rises. With the resumption of domestic acetic acid equipment, the supply of domestic acetic acid raw materials increases, and the price of acetic acid falls down. Since March 14, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and the price of acetic acid declines. The cost support of acetic anhydride is no longer available, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price increases.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that in March, the methanol price rose first and then fell. In the first ten days, the methanol price rose steadily, and the cost of acetic anhydride increased. After the middle ten days, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the support of acetic anhydride rise weakened, and the downward pressure increased. As the spring overhaul is approaching, the overhaul plans of methanol enterprises are coming out one after another; some downstream units are recovering one after another, the demand for methanol is rising slowly, the downward pressure of methanol is small, the methanol market is mainly adjusted in the future, and the support of acetic anhydride cost is insufficient.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that since mid March, the prices of acetic acid and methanol have continued to fall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, the support for the rise of acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the downward pressure has increased. Due to the small decline of acetic acid and methanol, the decline of acetic anhydride cost is limited, and the decline space of acetic anhydride is insufficient. In order to digest the high price of acetic anhydride in the early stage, the factory price of acetic anhydride manufacturers is basically stable, but the actual transaction price has a small negative drop. On the whole, the cost of acetic anhydride is not supported, and the downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride. It is inevitable that the price of acetic anhydride will decline in the future. However, due to the high cost of acetic anhydride, the decline space of acetic anhydride is limited, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, the price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week. On March 14, the price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 21), the price was 5530 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton or 3.83% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 500 / 0 (yuan / ton). Xylene inventory of ports in East China decreased this week, while that of ports in South China rose slightly. Weak downstream demand, coupled with the collapse of crude oil, the market mentality is empty, mixed xylene fell in shock. In terms of external market, as of March 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 710 US dollars / ton, down 43 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 727 US dollars / ton, down 44 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is more stable than last week, the price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 21.82% year on year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week and rose slightly. The price was 4497.73 yuan / ton on March 14 and 4507.27 yuan / ton on March 21, up 0.21% from last week and 28.38% from the same period last year. PTA plant centralized maintenance to ease the supply pressure, and the downstream polyester inventory pressure is not big, the contradiction between market supply and demand has eased.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 34.78% compared with the same period last year. The results show that the supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the external quotation fluctuates and falls; the cost side weakens and falls; the downstream quotation weakens and falls, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is weak and temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Multiple negative pressure, crude oil fell, xylene mixed cost support weakened; weak follow-up of downstream demand, rigid demand dominated. It is expected that the price of mixed xylene will still drop in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil, the arrival volume of mixed xylene, the dynamic of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.