According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market fluctuated and adjusted in the last ten months, and the spot prices of various brands fell slightly. As of January 11, 2021, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8116.67 yuan / ton, which is 0.41% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of PP upstream propylene, according to the data from the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price began to pick up after new year’s day, and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, and only a few enterprises went up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery. The weekly decline was 0.16% and the amplitude was 0.41%. The downstream operation rate rose slightly, but the price was bad, and propylene accounted for the majority. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between crude oil market and downstream trend.

At present, the propylene market is stable, while PP cost side support is acceptable. January to undertake last December’s PP (wire drawing) market decline trend, the beginning of the market futures spot prices. In the first ten days, the terminal demand was not strong, the procurement operation was biased towards rigid demand, and the trading was relatively weak. There are few large orders in the market, which is bad for PP spot price. In addition, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic, and logistics was also greatly affected. Many negative effects dragged down the PP market, and the spot price was low.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 11, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8250 yuan / ton, down 0.80% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the decline of domestic total inventory slowed down and rebounded around New Year’s day. At present, the number of maintenance units in domestic PP plants is reduced, the operating rate is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient. In addition, after the high opening of futures at the beginning of the month, the demand for fiber PP is expected to continue to decline as the holiday approaches. Expected PP (fiber) prices or will remain stable in a downward trend.

At the beginning of January, the market of PP meltblown material was flat, and the price tended to be stable. As of November 11, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10833.33 yuan / ton. Around the new year’s day, the epidemic situation in some areas of China rebounded on a small scale, and the overall situation was generally stable. There was no large-scale increase in the demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks. The situation of oversupply in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not been improved, and the profit is seriously diluted. The second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries have once again announced the implementation of strict City closure. There is still a certain demand for international medical protection products, but the price of overseas materials is stable. The domestic and international melt blown PP price level has entered the platform period, and it is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: in early January, the domestic PP spot market fluctuated slightly. The upstream propylene market turned down, but the range was not large, and the support for PP cost side was acceptable. At present, PP wire drawing material and fiber material market is stable and weak, market confidence is insufficient, futures open low, bad spot price. The demand of PP (melt blown) is general, and the price tends to be stable. In terms of fundamentals, the current supply of PP is sufficient, and there is no large-scale demand. It is expected that the market of PP will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, the market of potassium sulphate in Hebei Province is stable this week. Mannheim potassium sulphate factory: 50% powder 2600 yuan / ton or so; 50% granules and 52% water-soluble powder 2725 yuan / ton or so, continuing last week’s price. It is understood that after mid December 2020, the operation rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate plant will drop. Some parts of central China will be affected by environmental protection, and the production of the plant in North China will be reduced due to natural gas limitation. Before New Year’s day, the national average operation rate will be only 70%. The resource-based potassium sulfate Market is relatively stable, and the production of SDIC’s Luo potash plant is normal. The order is mainly in the early stage of shipment, and the arrival price of 52% powder is about 2700 yuan / ton. The output of potassium sulfate in water salt system of Qinghai is limited, and the price of 50% powder arriving at the station is 2500-2600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe that: insufficient downstream demand, potassium sulfate Market is expected to be weak and stable in the future.

The market of epoxy resin is gradually stable after the rise and fall. After the festival, the overall operation of epoxy resin is stable. The negotiation of liquid epoxy resin in East China is 20500-21500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of solid resin is about 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous period, the orders of current factories are obviously insufficient. Most large enterprises implement a single negotiation, and a few enterprises have increased shipping pressure. In addition, the upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the epoxy resin will be promoted smoothly in the short term.

In terms of equipment, Nantong Xingchen 160000 tons liquid epoxy resin plant was shut down for maintenance; Huangshan Jinfeng 15000 tons solid epoxy resin plant was shut down for technical transformation. Guodu chemical’s epoxy resin plant is in the state of shutdown, mainly out of stock.

The ups and downs of raw material bisphenol A are closely related to epoxy resin. At present, bisphenol A plunges after the historical highlight of 200 million yuan. After the festival, the market gradually stops falling and has a narrow range of correction. At present, the factory intends to push up the market, but it is obvious that it knows the price at present. The market offer is mostly 12800-13000 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable on the whole. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, maintained a stable trend, with little change after the festival. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of raw material bisphenol A in downstream resin plants is about 14000-16000 yuan / ton, while the price of epichlorohydrin is 11500-12200 yuan / ton. From this point of view, the profit value of liquid resin is low, and it enters the bottom state. With the weather and the manufacturer approaching, the logistics may be shut down, and the business community forecasts that the epoxy resin will maintain a stable trend in the short term. The support of raw materials is limited, but there may be some problems before the festival A wave of centralized procurement, but there is no lack of bearish expectation in the downstream market, short-term liquid epoxy resin maintains 20500-21500 yuan / ton

Early closing of Futures: on January 6, the futures price of pf2105 contract closed at 6714, up 4.55% from the same period last week. Intraday and closing all hit a new high since the listing.

Spot price: the average price of East China staple fiber is 6100 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton or 2.52% over the same period last week.

Upstream: on the 5th, the 13th OPEC + ministerial meeting ended. Saudi Arabia said it would unilaterally cut production by 1 million barrels per day on the basis of its existing crude oil production quota. Affected by the news, crude oil in New York rose to about $50 / barrel.

Supply: Sanfangxiang (600370) 200 kt PET staple fiber plant was overhauled on December 31, Suqian Yida 400 kt / a PET staple fiber plant was overhauled on July 7, and Fujian Xianglu about 160 KT PET staple fiber plant was planned to start overhauling in mid January, resulting in short-term PET staple fiber spot market supply contraction.

Production and marketing: after new year’s day, the production and marketing of polyester staple fiber is still at a relatively high level.

Caution in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 5, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 403 yuan / ton, which increased by 7 yuan / ton or 1.68% compared with December 30, and increased by 10 yuan / ton or 2.54% compared with December 1.

Returning after the festival to welcome the “first rise” of phosphate rock in 2021

In January 2021, after the new year’s day, the market quotation of phosphorus ore in Guizhou and other mainstream areas increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market was close to the high end. The price increase was mainly due to the support of demand. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock increased, the orders increased, and the mine shipment improved compared with the previous period. At present, the on-site transaction was stable, as of January 5, 2021 The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is 350-360 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 28% phosphate rock plate quotation 290-320 yuan / ton, 30% phosphate rock plate quotation 340-360 yuan / ton. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-370 yuan / ton, the price increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with a week ago, 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 290-320 yuan / ton, the price increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with a week ago

Downstream, yellow phosphorus, near the festival, downstream stock increase, enterprise quotation continued to be strong, downstream slightly wait-and-see mood, at present, Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance reference price around 16100-16300 yuan / ton. In terms of phosphoric acid, the current phosphoric acid market is supported by the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus, and the overall quotation of the market also keeps up with the rise.

Demand follow-up and timely operation of short-term phosphate rock

At present, the trading atmosphere of the domestic phosphate ore market has improved, the downstream demand has been followed up in time, the new single purchase volume has increased, and the confidence of the phosphate ore industry has been boosted. Therefore, the phosphate ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphate ore market will mainly operate stably and firmly in the short term.