1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

On December 3, the melamine market remained stable and the market did not change significantly. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of December 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 7433.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day and increased by 24.23% compared with November 3.

The melamine index was 46.07-26.00 points lower than the commodity index in 2011, which was 46.07-26.09 points lower than the commodity index in 2011. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

With the influence of regional weather, environmental protection and other factors in winter, the downstream demand is weakened, the follow-up of new orders is not smooth, manufacturers’ sales are under pressure, the inventory of melamine enterprises is increasing, and the overall market trading atmosphere is general. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 7100 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

For upstream urea, on December 3, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia resulted in better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 2, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there were 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were chloroform (5.80%), nitrates (5.56%) and R134a (5.49%). There were 19 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were propylene glycol (- 10.82%), isopropanol (- 5.79%) and maleic anhydride (- 4.67%). The average rise and fall was 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of the business agency believe that the current upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, and the manufacturers’ new orders are not followed up smoothly, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the market is not reduced. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will mainly operate in a weak and stable manner, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance for the specific trend.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 02, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 11266.67 yuan / ton. Compared with November 30, the average price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol decreased by 1400 yuan / ton, or 10.82%; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 1930 yuan / ton, or 20.71%.

At the beginning of December, the raw materials of “cold current” fell sharply, the cost support of propylene glycol weakened, and the market fell rapidly

At the beginning of this month, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market declined rapidly, and the raw material propylene oxide decreased sharply in recent days, and the cost support for propylene glycol was continuously weakened. Propylene glycol manufacturers began to reduce the price of shipment, the market price continued to fall on the first two days of the month, and the factory offers were lowered by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. In terms of demand, the early high price quotation and the current rapid downward trend, at least the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, continue to bear a larger, cautious supply and demand replenishment. The Data Engineer of the business agency learned yesterday from the relevant people in the industry that the current market supply of propylene glycol is sufficient, and the downstream volume is not large. At present, as of December 02, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol has been referred to 11266.67 yuan / ton. Compared with November 30, the average price of domestic industrial propylene glycol has decreased by 1400 yuan / ton, or 10.82%; compared with that on November 1, the average price has increased by 1930 yuan / ton, or 20.71%.

On the upstream side, near the end of November, the domestic propylene oxide market began to decline weakly. In a week, the market price dropped from around 19000 yuan / ton to about 17000 yuan / ton. After entering December, the market continued to decline. As of December 02, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 17166 yuan / ton, down 11.05% compared with a week ago (November 25).

Inventory has accumulated, downstream cautious wait for the future market or will continue to decline

At present, domestic industrial grade propylene glycol downstream demand is general, downstream take goods carefully, mainly wait and see, inventory has accumulated. At present, market costs and demand are weak, so the business community propylene glycol data division believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will continue to decline slightly.

On November 30, on Monday, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions last week, while Hebei and Shandong have been mainly stable since this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was stable and rising, some large factories’ prices were raised, the supply performance of large factories had no significant change, the unit was running normally, and the inventory pressure remained at a reasonable level. Due to the limited production in some domestic regions, the operating rate decreased, and the supply brought some support. At present, the ammonia quantity in Shandong remained at the previous level, and the supply pressure was not great. From the downstream, in the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal does not pick up the goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the liquid ammonia not rise much.

In other regions, there are changes in stability, while Hebei follows closely the price trend in Shandong. This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia from Shandong is not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei are mostly stable without significant changes. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is between 3050-3150 yuan / ton. Prices in Northeast China rose slightly, mainly affected by the increase in downstream fertilizer procurement, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan / ton and a range of 3100-3200 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the liquid ammonia market has little change at the end of the month, and the market is weak. Especially at present, the downstream procurement is slowing down, and the domestic ammonia volume is expected to rise slightly in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market may be insufficient in the near future. However, affected by the production restriction, the overall domestic supply level is expected to remain at a relatively reasonable position, so the price will not be too large The downward risk remains stable in the short term.

Trade name: maleic anhydride

Latest price (November 30, 2020): 8700.00 yuan / ton

Analysis points: domestic maleic anhydride market started to improve, but the spot is limited, some enterprises execute the early order. The price of downstream unsaturated resin has declined, the terminal demand performance is general, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the transaction atmosphere is general, and just need procurement is the main.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the domestic maleic anhydride market will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic raw silk market showed a slight downward trend this week. As of November 27, the average market price was 305000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.17%; the price of dried cocoon market was temporarily stable this week, with an average market price of 92000 yuan / ton as of November 27, a year-on-year decrease of 30.04%.

From the upstream cost to the downstream demand, the early market slightly recovered, and the price fluctuated slightly. In the current climate of sluggish terminal consumption, the textile raw material market, including cocoon silk, is in a dilemma. Recently, the whole textile market has been cooling down. On the one hand, the textile industry at this time of year will appear seasonal weakness, on the other hand, the early “double 11″ stock up has overdraft on the later demand. According to China Light and textile city news, the current downstream fabric trade began to reduce orders, stop the situation, textile market orders are basically reduced, most of the affected orders are foreign trade orders.

Business agency analysts believe that, on the whole, the industry chain of cocoon and silk industry lacks bright spots, and it is difficult for the price to rise by a large margin if only relying on the front-end cocoon cost support, and the price rise power foundation is not solid. The actual transaction is difficult to sustain the recovery, the current flat fundamentals can not give a strong boost to the market, the cocoon silk market is expected to show a small fluctuation trend.