1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash is mainly weak and stable this week. The average market price in East China at the beginning of the week was about 1273.33 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1266.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 0.52% and a decrease of 22.92% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on July 23 was 64.96, down 0.34 points compared with yesterday, 44.88% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 2.87% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the business agency, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the downstream demand of soda ash market at present, and the market price is still dominated by large, stable and small movements. In North China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1250-1350 yuan / ton and that of heavy soda is 1350-1450 yuan / ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton; in Central China, the market price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton At present, the mainstream market price is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light, the demand of downstream market is not recovered well, the enterprise inventory is high, and the active shipment is mainly, and the market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will consolidate the market in the short term.

 

Thiourea dioxide

In terms of raw materials: the well salt is greatly affected by the maintenance of downstream soda ash enterprises, and the market atmosphere is poor, and most of them are purchased on demand; the sea salt stock is sufficient and the market is stable; the downstream centralized maintenance of lake salt, coupled with the light soda market, leads to weak delivery and follow-up.

 

Demand: this week, the domestic glass market is mainly stable, and some enterprises have raised prices. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is fair, and the situation of production enterprises leaving the warehouse has not changed much, and the market confidence has increased month on month. At present, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises is fair. Affected by rainfall and other factors in some areas, the delivery time to downstream real estate enterprises is slightly delayed, but the overall processing order volume can maintain for about one month. Production enterprises in the near future, the situation is OK, also have strong confidence in the later. It is believed that in the traditional sales peak season, the terminal market demand will also start in succession. Therefore, although the inventory of some manufacturers is on the high side, the willingness to support the price is relatively strong. Recently, the number of glass in Central China entering the East China market has decreased, mainly due to the impact of Yangtze River shipping. With the approaching of traditional sales peak season, the market confidence of production enterprises has improved, and the willingness to stand out is also relatively strong.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 28th week (7.13-7.17) of 2020, there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and 1 kind of commodity is up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were electricity (0.73%) and hydrochloric acid (0.70%); the main commodities that fell were caustic soda (- 0.98%) and PVC (- 0.34%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.02%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysts of the business agency, the inventory of soda ash is still large at this stage, and the glass inventory is still at a high level. The downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while traders are more on the wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market will be sorted out in the short term, with small fluctuations.

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On July 17, the notice of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Industry and information department and other four departments on printing and distributing the financial subsidy work plan of Guangxi raw silk pledge guarantee loan promoted the downstream inquiry and transaction to some extent. Some manufacturers negotiated prices smoothly, and their positive intention to take goods increased. The market price of cocoon silk recovered slightly.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 22, the average price of dried cocoon market was 90000, up 0.90% compared with the previous day. The raw silk market also showed signs of improvement. As of July 22, the average price of raw silk market was 270500 yuan / ton, up 0.74% compared with the previous day. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 91000 yuan / ton in Jiaxing of Zhejiang Province, 270000 yuan / ton of raw silk, 89000 yuan / ton of dried cocoon and 271000 yuan / ton of raw silk in Guangxi.

 

Last week, a small number of fresh cocoons were listed in Yizhou and Liucheng. According to some local cocoon stations, the purchase price of Yizhou is about 24-28 yuan / kg, and the purchase price has no fluctuation for the time being; the purchase price of Liucheng is about 29-31 yuan / kg, and the price based on quality will be lower. In Xincheng, the purchase of fresh cocoons in the first half of the year has basically ended, and sericulture farmers have begun to cut mulberry gardens in summer to prepare for raising autumn cocoons in the second half of the year. The peak period of Sichuan Mianyang summer cocoon market is coming to an end. According to some local cocoon stations, due to the influence of high temperature and rainfall, the quality of fresh cocoons on the market is average. At present, the average purchase price is about 27-28 yuan / kg. According to the quality, the purchase price of fresh cocoons with better quality can reach about 30 yuan / kg. In addition, the spring cocoon purchasing work in Qinglong Town of Chongqing has been fully completed, and the purchase price of this batch of spring cocoons is 36 yuan per kilogram.

 

In the middle of July, with the deepening of the off-season atmosphere in the industry, the consumer market as a whole is still depressed, showing obvious characteristics of the off-season. The demand side has not yet shown significant signs of recovery. At present, traders are mainly on the wait-and-see situation, and future orders remain light. From the perspective of textile industry, from January to June, the total retail sales of shoes, hats and knitwear in China totaled 512 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to June, China’s textile and garment exports amounted to US $125.188 billion, an increase of 3.16% year-on-year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $74.103.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; and that of clothing was $51.844 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%. Since the second quarter, with the surge in demand for epidemic prevention materials in Europe and the United States and other countries, textiles including masks have become an important support for China’s export.

 

Business agency analysts believe that, under the support of Guangxi’s release of the financial subsidy program for raw silk pledge guarantee loan, the overall price has risen slightly. However, the lack of back-end consumer power has become the biggest pressure on the price rise of cocoon silk. The raw silk of all grades is in general, and the downstream price depressing sentiment is still strong. In particular, the uncertain and unstable factors faced by foreign trade development have increased significantly. The export situation in the second half of the year is still complex and severe. The cocoon and silk industry, which takes export as the main trade mode, will continue to operate under pressure. It is expected that the price of cocoon silk is likely to weaken in the future.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on July 13 was 563 yuan / ton, and that on July 17 was 566 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.59% this week.

 

Magnesium sulphate

On July 17, the commodity index of ammonium sulfate was 47.42, unchanged with yesterday, 55.38% lower than 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.39% higher than the lowest point of 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the domestic market of ammonium sulfate rose slightly, the port cargo is better. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 490-640 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 500-580 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 470-600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 520-600 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-650 yuan / ton, that in North China is 470-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

 

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is mainly stable. There is more market supply and less demand. The enthusiasm of the dealers was average, and they took a wait-and-see attitude. Some compound fertilizer manufacturers have begun to prepare autumn fertilizer production. In the short term, Hefei market will be weak and stable.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current market for ammonium sulfate is getting better, prices are rising slightly, and exports are increasing. The domestic demand of downstream compound fertilizer is general. It is expected that the range of coking grade ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the later stage, and the price of internal grade ammonium sulfate will be firm.

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The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 17 was 33.39, which was flat compared with yesterday, decreased by 67.27% from 102.01 point (2014-01-09), and increased by 11.34% from 29.99 point, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

 

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from July 13 to 17 (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Regional prices rose and fell weekly on the 13th and 17th

East China 3100-3150 3000-3100 – 75

Shandong Province 2950 ～ 3050 2900 ～ 3000 – 50

This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene continued to be stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong was weakened by the pressure of delivery. This week, the port inventory rose again, and the main port inventory is about 264000 tons. On the external side, this week’s external shocks declined. On Friday (July 17), South Korea imported 407 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 7.67 US dollars / ton, or 1.85% compared with July 9; and East China’s imports of pure benzene were 415.5 US dollars / ton, down 12.5 US dollars / ton, or 2.92% compared with July 9. There are negative factors in the fundamentals. Recently, the bearish sentiment of hydrobenzene market is strong, and the cost pressure of enterprises is large.

 

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units

 

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart on July 16

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, planned to restart on July 18

Recently, there are still many overhauls in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide and Jinneng have been shut down, and the restart time is at the end of this month. This week, the start-up of hydrobenzene Unit continued to decline, and the production of hydrobenzene will be affected in the near future.

 

One week price change of hydrobenzene market in Shandong

 

Market July 13 July 14 July 15 July 16 July 17

Shandong 2950-3050 2950-3050 2900-3000 2900-3000 2900-3000 2900-3000

 

This week, the market price in Shandong area fluctuated slightly, with weekly decrease of 50 yuan / ton and negotiation of 2900-3000 yuan / ton. The bidding price of crude benzol in Shandong area will be reduced by about 140 yuan / ton this week, and the current implementation is about 2390-2395 yuan / ton.

 

The basic support is limited, and the market bearish sentiment is strong. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remains. The number of maintenance units is increased compared with the previous period. After the maintenance of the downstream phenol ketone unit, styrene profit has improved in the near future, but it is still at a low level. The downstream demand is slightly improved compared with the previous period, but it is not enough to support the hydrobenzene market.

 

In the future, the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic pure benzene market may maintain a standstill. Sinopec’s listing price has been stable for more than a month, so it is difficult for pure benzene port pressure to change significantly in the short term. Crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the range. OPEC and its production reduction allies plan to relax the production reduction restrictions in August, with limited upward space for crude oil prices, and fundamental factors affecting the hydrobenzene market. At the end of the month, some units have plans to start operation, and the on-site supply will increase. It is expected that the market will mainly stagnate in the short term.

Thiourea

1、 Price data

 

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. On July 13, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1182.5 yuan / ton, and on July 17, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1232.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.23%. On July 16, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 94.31, up 0.59 points compared with yesterday, 39.39% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 40.99% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

 

Magnesium sulphate

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price of petroleum coke is rising due to the shortage of resources. On July 17, the price of petroleum coke in Shandong remained stable, and some refineries rose slightly, with an increase range of 30-50 yuan / ton. The start-up in the plant is not high, and the current inventory remains low; the downstream actively replenish, and the refinery mainly holds the price and wait-and-see.

 

Upstream: on July 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $40.93/barrel, down $0.27. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract falling by US $0.42 to US $43.37/barrel, mainly due to OPEC +’s agreement to relax the supply limit of record production reduction, and the continuous surge in the number of cases of the US epidemic, which triggered demand concerns.

 

Downstream: the downstream glass market has risen steadily, and the recent recovery and increase of glass production capacity have also accelerated. In addition, affected by weather factors such as rainfall in Meiyu season, some production enterprises in some regions have risen slightly. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased. The price of prebaked anode is stable and the downstream market needs to purchase; the price of alumina continues to fall.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 27th week (7.6-7.10) of 2020, with petroleum coke (3.73%), asphalt (3.66%) and gasoline (2.81%). There were 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with coke (- 2.76%), WTI crude oil (- 1.34%) and naphtha (- 1.11%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.81%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The price of petroleum coke in the market is affected by tight supply of resources and strong support from downstream electrolytic aluminum. However, in the later period, the price of petroleum coke has risen to a certain high level, and carbon enterprises have lost profits, and the mood has changed slightly. According to the data, the operating rate of coking units has increased. As of July 16, the start-up rate of China’s local refineries was 47.82%, 0.14 percentage points higher than that of July 9, and the operating rate of Shandong georefining was 51.73%, 0.93% higher than that of July 9. It is predicted that the short-term petroleum coke market may still have a small increase space, and the later stage may tend to be stable operation, which depends on the downstream market demand.

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