Since late June, the market price of light rare earth in China has risen again. The prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy have continued to rise, and the market of light rare earth has recovered. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on June 22, the rare earth index was 345 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 65.50% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of June 23, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China was 288000 yuan / ton and 364000 yuan / ton respectively. The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, holmium oxide and holmium ferroalloy all rose to some extent.

In recent years, in terms of light rare earth in China, driven by the positive promotion of new infrastructure projects in all parts of the country, the price of rare earth has slightly increased. The merchants who hold goods in the field are obviously bullish. The merchants are reluctant to sell, and the sentiment of rising in the field is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers has increased, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series rare earth has slightly increased. The market price of light rare earth is still at Low level. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic on the import of overseas rare earth minerals and the reduction of waste recovery and monazite raw materials, the domestic rare earth smelting output has declined, while the domestic economic recovery has led to the recovery of downstream demand for rare earth, supporting the price of rare earth, and the price of domestic light rare earth market has increased.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. In the near future, the market price of heavy rare earth remains at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the terminal new energy vehicle market has recovered, the domestic supply of terbium rare earth is very tight, and the domestic price of terbium rare earth keeps rising.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth enterprises, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, and formed the compilation of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, while the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth is higher than before. In addition, the supply of medium heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to rise.

The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid kept stable in the upstream, which effectively supported the price of aluminum fluoride, but some manufacturers lowered the price to test the delivery. According to the data of business agency, the price of domestic aluminum fluoride on May 19 was 8500 yuan / ton, 3.77% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in China kept stable this week. In early June, the rising price of fluorite in the upper reaches drove the domestic hydrofluoric acid market higher, but the demand for hydrofluoric acid in the lower reaches was poor. This week, fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream kept stable operation.

As of the first ten days of June, the start-up of aluminum fluoride enterprises has increased to about 40%. Some aluminum fluoride manufacturers have adopted price reduction and promotion. The price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton, while the price of other manufacturers remains stable.

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business and chemical branch, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices are difficult to rise, the market prices are stable, aluminum fluoride manufacturers are not willing to follow the adjustment, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

The price of lithium carbonate is relatively stable this week. However, the market transaction situation is still relatively cold. At present, some enterprises still slightly reduce the price of electricity carbon, which makes the price difference between high and low range of electricity carbon further narrow. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on June 19 was 39900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, 3.16% lower than that on May 19; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on June 19 was 44200 yuan / ton, 0.23% lower than that at the beginning of the week, and 2.21% lower than that on May 19. On the 19th, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market was around 36000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market was around 40000-48000 yuan / ton.

But this week, due to the recovery of market demand for lithium iron phosphate, and the low operating rate of ternary materials, it is more difficult to trade electric carbon than industrial carbon, which leads to a slight downward exploration of electric carbon price. According to the current market development, the downstream terminal is still pricing down, and the downstream purchasing enterprises intend to transmit the cost pressure to the upstream, which makes the price of lithium carbonate still under pressure.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, 2020, there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector. The top three commodities are respectively white carbon black (3.01%), light soda ash (2.67%) and propane (2.65%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were butanone (- 2.34%), crude benzene (- 2.31%) and acetic anhydride (- 1.85%). The average price of this day is 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, at present, the market inventory is relatively high, the spot transaction situation is weak, and the impact of imported lithium carbonate on the domestic market, it is expected that the market price of lithium carbonate will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal ushered in a turning point from June 9. On June 17, the average port price of power coal was maintained at 570 yuan / ton, 2.75% higher than the average power coal price of 554.75 yuan / ton on June 1, and 3.54% higher than the average power coal price of 550.5 yuan / ton on June 9. Recently, the price of power coal has risen slightly, and the power coal market continues to be hot.

Before that, the price of power coal went up in May after a round of decline due to the “public health event” in March and April. After May 1st, the highway resumed charging, the downstream users of coal mostly purchased on demand, the mine mouth market delivery was poor, and the price was under pressure. The market demand of the downstream power plant has picked up slightly, driving the price of power coal up slightly. From the end of May to the first ten days of June, the price of power coal fell. Because of the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of the Daqin line, the level of port transfer in around the Bohai Sea gradually picked up. At the beginning of the month, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the quotation of traders was stable, and the transaction was fair. With the arrival of the rainy season in the south in the later period, the power of hydropower has been gradually opened, the power of thermal power has been partially squeezed, the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants is limited, and the inventory of coastal power plants has declined.

On June 17, the power coal commodity index was 68.67, up 0.48 points from yesterday, down 33.34% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 53.62% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the supply is tight. After the completion of the “two sessions”, the safety inspection was intensified, some coal mines in some areas were shut down and production was limited, the coal price in the production area increased significantly, and the overall production enthusiasm of coal mines was low. At present, dozens of large-scale coal mines in Shaanxi have been shut down for rectification. Ordos continues to strictly control the coal management ticket. Yulin area has carried out a month long safety inspection. The resumption of production of coal mines in the main production area is not as expected. The overall domestic supply is affected. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 15, China’s raw coal production in May was 318 million tons, down 0.1% year-on-year, and up 6% year-on-year in April.

In terms of downstream power plants, the demand is gradually picking up. The rainfall in the South increased and the hydropower generation capacity decreased due to flood discharge. At present, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants is about 670000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants is 15.4779 million tons, down 1.8 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available days are about 22 days. Daily consumption is expected to continue to rise as the peak season of electricity consumption gradually arrives. In terms of electricity, the demand growth in May was significant. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the country’s absolute generating capacity was 593.2 billion kwh, an increase of 4.3% year on year, 4 percentage points higher than that in April.

In terms of imports, quotas are tight. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China imported 22.057 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%; from January to may, China imported 148.711 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. At present, the state of import tightening is still maintained, and only a small number of bidding for power plants have been completed. In recent years, China has implemented the policy of level control of imported coal, aiming to control the total amount of imported coal within 300 million tons. Now, the total amount of imported coal has reached 150 million tons from January to may, and the quota of imported coal in the second half of the year is relatively tight.

According to the analysts of the business club, firstly, the coal supply of the production area is tight in the near future, and it is still in the state of vehicle and other coal; secondly, the demand of the downstream power plant is gradually picking up with the weather getting hotter and hotter, and the pace of the downstream enterprises returning to work and production is speeding up, the infrastructure construction projects are accelerating, the demand of coal consumption industries such as cement and building materials will gradually pick up, and the peak time of summer will come Before that, the power plant still had the demand for replenishment of storage; in terms of re import, the quota was still tight, the price of Indonesian coal fell to the low point since the outbreak, and the price of imported coal continued to weaken. Some coal types in the port are in short supply, and traders are willing to hold up the price. In a comprehensive view, the power coal still has a small increase basis, specifically the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda this week is mainly stable. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week to the weekend is about 502.5 yuan / ton. The price remains stable, down 29.47% from the same period last year. On June 15, the caustic soda commodity index was 72.30, the same as yesterday, 65.05% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.91% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: 420-550 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1400-1550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market (converted into 100 yuan), 710-740 yuan / ton in Guangdong market. In terms of flake alkali, the factory price of flake alkali was stable at the beginning of the week. Supported by the good maintenance of some manufacturers, the quotation of flake alkali market maintained stable operation. Quotation of flake alkali: 1900-1950 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2150-2200 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2180-2200 yuan / ton in East China market, 1600-1700 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market.

Raw materials: affected by the low price increase of sea salt and lake salt, the delivery of well salt is not good, and some well salt enterprises have maintained or limited production since the end of May. In June, the maintenance of some two soda enterprises was completed, and the purchase of industrial salt by downstream soda enterprises may increase. However, due to the impact of high inventory, the supply and demand of raw salt and soda are still in a state of contradiction, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Demand: at present, about 76% of domestic alumina is under construction, and the downstream of papermaking, printing and dyeing, etc. needs to maintain rigid procurement. Caustic soda plant maintenance good and spot not much to continue to support the market. On the macro level, tank car accidents or domestic hazardous chemicals production, transportation and other aspects were strictly inspected, and small, medium and micro downstream enterprises started or were affected. Supply and demand have not changed much for the time being.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 23rd week of 2020 (6.8-6.12), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.49%) and light soda ash (- 1.32%). This week’s average was – 0.56%.

According to the analysts of business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is stable. Alumina, papermaking and printing mostly purchase caustic soda on demand. Due to the price of liquid caustic soda stuck in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market is still weak and stable, and the overall adjustment is limited.