Trade name: CIS butadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (April 19): 12660 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic price of cis-butyl rubber was 12660 yuan / ton on the 19th, down 2.31% from the previous day. On the one hand, the price of butadiene continues to weaken, and the cost side drags the cis-butadiene rubber. According to the business agency, the butadiene price as of April 19 was 6696 yuan / ton, down 9.69% from the beginning of the month; on the other hand, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement in the near future is not high, and some businesses ship at low prices. The factory price of cis-butyl rubber has been greatly reduced. According to the business agency, as of April 19, Daqing Shunding delivery price of CNPC Northeast sales company was 12500 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: raw material price is low, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of cis-butyl rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, pure benzene first fell and then rose this week, and the price rose compared with last week. On April 11, the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6664 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (April 18), the price of pure benzene was 6750-6950 yuan / ton (average price was 6820 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 156 yuan / ton or 2.34% over last week and 103.58% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the decline of styrene led to the weakening of pure benzene in East China. In the second half of the week, styrene futures rebounded. The spot supply of styrene in some areas was tight, and the price rose, while pure benzene rose. This week, the port is still in the channel of destocking. Although the speed of picking up goods is slowing down, the number of new arrivals is less. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6850 yuan / ton, which strengthened the bottom support and boosted the market mentality.

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia continued to rise this week, driven by crude oil. On Friday (April 16), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 937 US dollars / ton, up 75.33 US dollars / ton or 8.74% compared with April 9, and the import reference price of East China was 931 US dollars / ton, up 56 US dollars / ton or 6.4% compared with April 9.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news was positive and the price rose. Good news: IEA and OPEC increase global crude oil demand, US commercial crude oil inventory decreases continuously, and refinery operation rate increases; bad news: OPEC + decides to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places is severe. On April 9, Brent rose $3.64/barrel, or 5.85%; WTI rose $3.84/barrel, or 6.47%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene dropped first and then rose, which was higher than that of last week. On April 18, the price of sample enterprises was 9210 yuan / ton, which was 4.26% higher than that of last week, and 78.83% higher than that of the same period last year. Crude oil prices rose, pure benzene and ethylene followed the strong trend, and styrene prices in the external market were firm, providing good support for the domestic market. As of April 14, the inventory in East China was 6.9 tons, down by 6000 tons in the week, and the inventory in ports was 95400 tons, down by 11100 tons in the week. In the downstream, the price of EPS rose, the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the transaction was general; the price of PS and ABS remained stable, and the transaction was just needed.

Aniline: the price of aniline continued to fall this week. Aniline plant operating rate is high, the market supply is sufficient, the enterprise price reduction row inventory. Aniline prices fell, driving the downstream follow-up to positive. In the second half of the week, horizontal arrangement was maintained. On April 18, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 10500 yuan / ton, down 14.75% from last week and up 87.95% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is still upward momentum for crude oil in the later stage. Crude oil trend mainly focuses on OPEC + crude oil production change, US commercial crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory, and global epidemic news

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: strong cost support, low inventory, tight spot, pushing up the price. However, as the price of styrene rebounded, the downstream acceptance of styrene declined, some markets began to resist, transaction volume decreased, and terminal demand continued to be weak. Starting next week, domestic overhaul units will be restarted, and new units will be put into operation. It is expected that the short-term spot tension in styrene market will be eased, suppressing the rising space of styrene.

Sinopec’s high price is strong, supporting the pure benzene market. Next week, the downstream styrene plant will be restarted, which will support the demand for pure benzene. Overall, short-term pure benzene prices continue to follow crude oil, styrene price fluctuations, prices firm. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Trend analysis

 
As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 68531.67 yuan / ton, up 4.27% from 65726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 18.25% from the beginning of the year, and up 64.04% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper rose in March, closing at $9245, up 3.54%; at the beginning of this week, Shanghai copper index rebounded after a correction of 65700 yuan, closing at 68540 yuan, up 2.60%. This week, the international copper index closed at 61060 yuan, up 3.12%.

On the macro side, the US dollar index dropped to a three week low, and the sharp decline in US crude oil inventory showed that US demand recovered and accelerated. US retail sales in March recorded the largest growth in 10 months. The good economic data boosted market sentiment. As of Friday, overnight lungcu continued to be strong, with the latest closing quotation of US $9310 / ton, up US $230, or 2.53%. In terms of fundamentals, the second quarter was the peak season of traditional consumption. In the near future, the marginal demand improved, copper concentrate continued to be tight, and macro optimism supported the price rise. LME copper inventory also declined. It is expected that the copper price will still fluctuate strongly in the short term.

On April 15, 2021, there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 4 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising commodities include R22, R134a and chloroform; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On April 15, the price of fluorite chemical raw material market rose, and the price of fluorite was 2738.89 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite remained stable. In recent years, some fluorite plants in China started generally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was normal. However, the downstream market was mainly stable, and the decline of fluorite price was limited. As of the 15th, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2800 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and stable in the future.

In the near future, the price trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is temporarily stable, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. As of the 15th, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid Market is 10622.22 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable Fluoric acid spot supply is normal. Recently, the market of goods on the floor is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be temporarily stable.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price trend of aluminum fluoride market is stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. With the demand procurement in the downstream market, the price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the domestic price of chloroform is 4000 yuan / ton. On the one hand, there is a large demand for downstream refrigerants, and the shipment of chloroform is smooth, which is supported by the demand side; on the other hand, since late March, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has gone up, which is strongly supported by the cost side.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

Recently, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 rose, the price of raw material trichloromethane rose, and the cost side support was strong. Recently, the downstream gradually began to stock, the demand side rose, and the market center slightly rose. As the price trend of hydrofluoric acid was stable, the price of the affected part of the refrigerant rose. Refrigerant R134a price trend has an upward trend, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was temporarily stable.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, ABS market rose first and then fell in the first half of April, and the price of each brand product rose and fell. As of April 14, the mainstream ABS offer of general-purpose ABS fell below the level of the beginning of the month. At present, the average price is about 18250 yuan / ton, which is 0.27% lower than the average price level in early April, with a 60.09% increase year on year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw materials, styrene has been operated in the first ten days of April. The positive effects of macro inflation and domestic demand expectations still play a role in the market. In addition, the enterprise equipment was overhauled at the end of last month, and the replenishment volume at the end of the month, many factors stabilized the styrene market. But domestic supply has recovered at the beginning of the month, which has depressed spot prices on the site. Port cargo also has the operation of warehouse, leading to weak operation of the inventory. The recent futures rise has boosted spot, small single trading is more smooth, styrene is expected to stop falling up.

In the case of butadiene, the market has been down in the near future, and the price has fallen again and again. The closing price of the external market declined significantly, and the factory quotation of major manufacturers was continuously lowered. Domestic spot supply is still relatively abundant, some suppliers continue to give way to the single operation, the center of offer is down. Although some businesses are affected by the high cost of holding positions and not intended to be lower, the market investment power is slightly insufficient under the drag of supply side. The butadiene market will be in a downturn in the short term.

At present, the overall trend of ABS cost end is not good, and the support for ABS spot price is weakened. The current market continues the supply increase in the petrochemical industry due to the high opening rate of petrochemical enterprises last month. But in the late last month, the demand of household appliances industry was large, which eased the contradiction between supply and demand, and stabilized the basic aspect of ABS. With the further abundant supply of goods in the site and the strengthening of market competition, the purchasing side’s resistance to high price goods gradually increases. In recent 50 days, ABS market is in cyclical vibration, and the price amplitude range is not large. The business agency data division thinks that the current ABS market is generally in the high-level and stable order and operation of supply and demand law.

Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society think: ABS market in early April rose and fell back to the early month level. The trend of raw materials is weak, and the support for ABS cost side is weakened. The continuous high construction rate in the near future has completely improved the early shortage pattern, and also strengthened the competition in the field. At present, the goods in the site are abundant, and the downstream factory needs to purchase for maintenance. The increase of buyers’ resistance is the main factor of price decline in recent two days. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will maintain high prices.